[00:00:00] McIntosh:

Welcome back to Satoshi’s Plebs for episode two thirty three. I am McIntosh, and you are?

[00:00:09] Kenshin:

I’m Kenshin. I’m Kenshin. And in today’s episode, we get ready for the winter ahead. Oh my goodness.

[00:00:19] McIntosh:

I’m a little I hope I’m a little wrong tub. I don’t know. I don’t even know what’s going on, man. I I don’t know. We’ll get into that. But, yeah. Here we are. Episode two thirty three. Scrambling around. How are you doing, my weekends? To Are you okay? Yeah. Obviously, last week, we didn’t record. I did not have Internet. I’ve been until I was without Internet for, like, eleven days. It came back on. Excuse me. They fixed it, yesterday around noon.

And then it got worse because we tried to record. We did record. We successfully recorded yesterday, and Macintosh was so distracted that I did something I have never done in 233 episodes, actually, plus another 100 or so of the podcast, that I was the editor for prior to this that my wife used to run. I didn’t save the file. My side. Now Kenshin, because he’s an awesome person, has his, I’m sure, probably well, he pushed it up onto our, cloud storage thing that we share essentially to copy stuff back and forth, and it’s no use because it’s just him talking. Now it’s spectacular stuff, ladies and gentlemen. Or Replied. It would made it would have been a very one-sided podcast.

Now I I want to thank you publicly, sir, for volunteering, not volunteering, but saying it would be okay to get back on here in less than twenty four hours and record the same but thank you from the bottom of my heart. I hope I’m I can thank you for the listeners as well who I I feel like maybe a few of them kind of missed us last week and, they want to hear from. So that’s what we’re gonna do today. We’re gonna we’re gonna talk. Hey. What’s up with you?

[00:02:25] Kenshin:

Yeah. Hopefully. Yeah. Hopefully, it’s a good episode. Hey. We this is this is number one we said. We should be, like, it should be perfect.

Yeah. Exactly. No pressure. Good. So what’s going on is that, well, in Sweden, it’s winter. Winter show. Today, actually, I want to Yeah. It showed up for me unexpectedly and suddenly from plus degrees all of a sudden from one day to the next, we have minus degrees in snow. I was not prepared mentally, physically, emotionally, practically. So I was scrambling to change tires on my car and my wife’s car and put winter tires so we can actually drive around here, go to work and all these things. So, it’s been a week. I’m still not over it. We turned on the fire for the first time also this week. And

[00:03:25] McIntosh:

Wait. You turned on the fire? Like, you did not light a fire.

You you turned it on. Oh, okay. Light a oh, I don’t know. Do you have a you have a stove or do you have a gas fire

[00:03:36] Kenshin:

plug. Okay. A stove. Okay. No. A stove with with real wood and stuff. So, yeah, we

[00:03:45] McIntosh:

we actually make fire. Yeah. Wait. That was your first fire? This week. Yeah. Oh, that’s hilarious. We’ve already had two. Okay.

[00:03:56] Kenshin:

Yeah. But we have the the the heat pump working nonstop. So so now it’s not enough. It’s actually minus eight degree minus nine, I saw now. So that is, like, 20 degrees or so

[00:04:11] McIntosh:

Fahrenheit, if I’m not mistaken. That’s pretty chilly. Fahrenheit.

[00:04:16] Kenshin:

It’s, yeah, eight below zero. So, oh, I I don’t get any. Away. Oh, yeah.

[00:04:24] McIntosh:

You said, yeah, minus eight. Well, to keep things on track Oh, sorry. It’s okay. We don’t I I we do use our our stove for heat, but we don’t use it as much as you do. And in fact, we it’s it’s almost like a it’s an enjoyable thing for us. We’re like, hey. We started it got the temperature got below 50 degrees. We can start a fire. Right? Yeah. It’s it’s not It’s 16 Fahrenheit. Yeah. So it’s close to 20. Yeah. Hey. I was just doing that off the top of my head. Give me a break. That’s good. That’s good. Sixteen twenty. I have no It’s cold. That’s what it is. Yeah. I have no clue about Fahrenheit. I don’t understand how you keep track of it. Well, I don’t either, but it’s what I grew up with. So we weren’t smart enough to use, the metric system over here. But I think Canadians use We they do. See, we wanted to be like our imperial overlords who we kicked out of the country in 1776.

So we kept the imperial metrics, not metric, measurement, like pound and, you know, inches and foot. I I think Britain has actually moved on and started using the metric system. But if I’m mistaken, please boost in and, you know, tell me. That’d be terrific. Yeah. But we did inherit that from thank you. And then we decided not to change it. We should have. Yeah. This is what we do. We’re different over here. I was thinking, have you seen Frozen, the Disney movie?

[00:06:06] Kenshin:

I think

[00:06:08] McIntosh:

half of the first time. Half of the first time? So your son’s not that into that kind of thing. No. That’s good. I had one child who was obsessed with Frozen and literally used to go to bed at night listening to the, listening to the soundtrack.

Oh. Oh, good times. I think it was set in, in my it’s I’m not sure they ever say what country, actually, but it it’s very clear it’s supposed to be like a northern type Scandinavian country. You know, like Norway or Sweden or Finland or something.

[00:06:47] Kenshin:

Yeah. It has a lot of snow in it. A lot of snow.

[00:06:51] McIntosh:

Hence, the Frozen name of the movie. Anyways, completely off topic there. But what are we talking about today, Kenshin? I think there’s this little thing going on where some people think it’s a bear market. Let’s talk about that.

[00:07:09] Kenshin:

Yeah. Sure.

Well, we talked briefly before. Statistically speaking, historically speaking, based on the last ten years, It should be the start of the bear market, unfortunately. No?

[00:07:28] McIntosh:

And Is that unfortunate? Or is that just the way it is?

[00:07:33] Kenshin:

Yeah. I guess unfortunate. I I’m thinking more in terms that we had so much higher expectation of the list. I see. Kinda like 2021. Yeah. I mean, everybody back then said, oh, it’s easy to compare to 100 k. Right? A 100 k.

[00:07:48] McIntosh:

Yeah.

[00:07:49] Kenshin:

That didn’t work out. And now yeah. Now we were talking about the worst case scenario, 150.

[00:07:55] McIntosh:

Right. Normal scenario, two fifty. And then people were saying There was Samsung now, million dollar Bitcoin. Million dollar Bitcoin this time.

Gonna happen. I I No one would be surprised. Why do people say things like that? I Yeah. Well, why do we even attempt to make, you know, prognostications? I don’t forecast. Right? Yeah. I I don’t know. I did say I thought it would get to $1.50. I thought it might get higher, maybe two, two fifty, just like you said. Now we’re not, in my opinion, officially in a bear market yet. Now I know you believe we are, and that’s fine. I I just follow the numbers. No. I get right. I don’t want it to be bear market. But wait. Now Michael Saylor says without volatility, we would not have the best asset on on the face of the earth. So I’m gonna go with his I mean, seriously, if it were boring, nobody would people wouldn’t be involved. And the volatility does show that the world essentially has not figured out its value. And its value, ladies and gentlemen, is not it’s not 80 k.

It’s not. It’s worth far more than that, in my opinion. Now that’s my opinion, not financial advice, etcetera, etcetera as we have to say here. But, you know, that’s why there’s volatility. And, I mean, well, that’s one of the base reasons. I’ll say that.

[00:09:24] Kenshin:

It’s, Jack Mallers has another nice metaphor. He says it’s like a heartbeat. Right. It’s alive. If if it was no volatility, it would be flat. It would be dead. No one would care about this. I I I kind of liked it. Now I do believe that Jack will be saying when we hit 70 or 60 or 50 k, we’re still in a bull market.

[00:09:46] McIntosh:

Bless the target.

Now I don’t know if we’re going down a rock. Now I know your research, what we brought up, we talked about it on the show. It looks like well, he based on history, the cycle high was October 6, I think. Yes. January. That was it. Pack it up. And what I should have done was sold some Bitcoin and paid off some debt I owed for my Bitcoin miners. But anyways, you know, and and Did you hear And now we’re gonna go down for the next year. That’s what his history has showed up. But history, that doesn’t mean a 100%. That’s what we’re gonna see. Now right now, we’re, by the way, we’re at block height nine two four six zero nine as we started recording anyways. And the price is roughly, what, 83,000 Kenshin?

Yeah. Okay. So at 83,000, we are at roughly probably right around 33 and a half, 34% down from our all time high of a 126. At least that’s what Claude told me yesterday at 84. Okay? Mhmm. That is not unknown at all, a 33% pullback in a in a bull market, still going up, still gonna have new all time high. That’s my point. Now 50% drawdown, you know, that that’s not a bull bull market. And we’re gonna be approaching If we keep going down, we’re really gonna be getting into those areas where there’s just essentially no way that it’s gonna go back up.

[00:11:40] Kenshin:

The what’s what is a bit weird, if we go again historically, the bear market low, lowest point, never went or just touched the previous all time high. That is correct.

This time and we’re talking about, in many cases, sixty, seventy, 80% down. Well, right. This time, if we do 50% down We’re sitting on that support.

[00:12:13] McIntosh:

Yeah. 70 And even low. 70 k. Right?

[00:12:16] Kenshin:

Yeah. It’s 70. So if we go 66 50 down Mhmm. We are below that point. That’s correct.

[00:12:23] McIntosh:

So in a way Maybe that that will send us to 10 k. Oh, sorry. I’m I jumped ahead to the news. Hold on. We’ll we’ll get to that. I apologize, ladies and gentlemen. I am in a weird mood today. Of course, there’s many days that that well, whatever. Aye aye aye. So, yeah, god. Why did I sign up for this show?

Okay. So sorry. Back on target.

[00:12:50] Kenshin:

So in in that way, I I feel like I I agree. It’s like we haven’t done the proper bull market this time around. Right. It we didn’t reach any of the levels that we were supposed to reach Right. Even historically speaking. So to go to a bear market and see 60%, it’s it’s not gonna be realistic either. So it’s it’s either broken, this this, pattern, which is not yet. So we’re yet to see if if this pattern continues or not. It’s ten years in the making and still on, but still some pattern will be broken because we will not do the 6%.

Yeah. If we go to 50% down in this bear market, another pattern will be breaking anyway. I I have a I have a thesis. I wanna propose this thesis.

[00:13:45] McIntosh:

Jack Mallers loves to say, Mallers. I he he actually corrected everybody on his podcast. I think I said his name wrong. Maller. Jack Mallers? And I always say Mallers. Anyways, I apologize. My boy, Jack, he’s my best friend. Did you know that? I thought he was your son. Oh, well, Whatever. Alright. Yeah. I know you’re making jokes about my age. Alright.

[00:14:18] Kenshin:

You said you said you hoped to do something at some point. I remember that.

[00:14:22] McIntosh:

I’m not so old I don’t remember that.

Where was I going with this? He is always saying that Bitcoin is the twenty four seven global liquidity indicator reserve, whatever you wanna call it. Because the stock market, for example, the New York Stock Exchange, the world famous you know, this is the number one stock exchange in the world. It closes down on Friday afternoons in roughly an hour from the time that we’re recording, I think, if I’m doing calculations correctly. And it will be closed all weekend, and you can’t sell your stock unless you’re a super special person. Bitcoin, on the other hand, you can sell anytime.

And so he’s always talking about that. I would offer that one potential possibility. He’s correct. It’s like this liquidity indicator. It’s this idea that it represents what’s going on in the market. And ladies and gentlemen, it is a possibility that the market is doing so bad that Bitcoin is leading the way, so to speak, and it will show us falling off a cliff attention. It’s crazy because the stock markets themselves are at kind of all time highs or very close to it. But then there’s so much bad news going on about economies, bad jobs, numbers, people, mass layoffs, Japan right now.

If they’re not at well, they’re at a high in their central bank interest rate for decades. Let me put it that way. I’m not gonna say it’s an all time high, but it is about to throw their system in a major curve ball. It’s it’s messing up some of our financial things because of what they call the carry trade, which basically means you go well, I’m not gonna explain it because I’ll butcher it. But that’s actually directly going to affect some of the financial machinery that we do, so to speak, here on Wall Street in The United States. These things are all related because we live in this global economic village at this point.

And if everything’s kinda going into the toilet at the same time, maybe Bitcoin is the indicator of that. It’s the leading indicator. Is that fair? Yeah. Yeah. Have you heard that anywhere else? That way. Can I call that an original? Are we good there? I don’t think I’ve heard that anywhere.

[00:17:10] Kenshin:

You just said Chuck Mueller said it. Well, no. He talks well,

[00:17:13] McIntosh:

not in the well, but he also thinks we’re about to hit all time high. He can’t be right about both. You’re right. Sorry. At the same time.

[00:17:25] Kenshin:

Yeah. Alright.

[00:17:28] McIntosh:

I you know, I don’t know. And we’re gonna talk about this some more, but let me just briefly pause and say, we don’t know. I don’t think you do. If you do, please tell me, and I’ll leverage long that or short that.

But regardless, the advice that we would always give to you is simply just to continue to DCA. Right? That’s the easiest. Because over the long run, we know where Bitcoin’s going. It’s going higher as it becomes this global world currency reserve, whatever you wanna call it. I mean, it’s going to replace the US dollar at some point as a global trade current. It’s going to replace you know, China’s trying to use the yuan. The BRICS countries are trying to come up with China’s included in that. They’re trying to come up with their own currency or whatever. Look, Bitcoin is going to replace all that because it is the best solution for this. It is neutral.

It’s it’s, decentralized. There’s so many, sorry. I, there’s a whole list and I don’t have it on top of my head, but it’s the best, right? It’s the best. So ultimately, it’s going to win out. Now I don’t know if that’s two years from now, five years from now, twenty years from now. If I if I had to place a bet, I would hedge later rather than sooner. But the good news is, dear listener, that gives you time to stack sat. So keep doing that whether it’s going down or going up.

[00:19:05] Kenshin:

Yeah. In in in my mind, it’s right now, I’m stuck in, let’s say, a thousand or 2,000 extra slots a day or a few days.

And this is just the the the opportunity to get those extra couple of thousand sats here and there while in a few years. Or let’s say when is the end of the Bitcoin, what is it called, issuance, then you will have one sat per block

[00:19:41] McIntosh:

issued. Which Right?

[00:19:43] Kenshin:

Right. And now you’re getting a few extra thousands here and there. This is because it’s In 2140,

[00:19:49] McIntosh:

by the way. Yeah. I mean, our when that’s gonna happen.

[00:19:53] Kenshin:

Yeah. It’s not gonna be to our benefit, but to our grandchildren’s and grand grandchildren’s benefit. But still, it’s If you hold on to it, that is certainly true. Yep. Yeah. 100.

[00:20:04] McIntosh:

So personally for me, it’s a good opportunity

[00:20:08] Kenshin:

even though I’m not afraid to say that we’re possibly in a bear market, historically speaking.

Mhmm. Because I I think everybody’s so so afraid to say that. Or everybody seems to judge people for saying we’re in burn market. Even Jack Mallers was really upset. He was like, oh, you Yeah. You’re insinuating that people are stupid saying we’re in a burn getting in a burn market or something. But I I don’t know what peep people are so hung up with that to be hyper hyper about this fact and say, oh, we’re in a bull market all the time. I don’t know. It’s fine. It’s fine to be bullish long term and short term realize that, okay, yeah, we’re going in a cycle and then we’re

[00:20:53] McIntosh:

we’ll back up again. It’s it’s not proven yet, and I do wanna argue his side for just a second if you don’t mind.

His argument would be, and this is well, no. His argument would be simple. The United States is going to be forced to print money, very soon. To pay our bills, that’s gonna grow our debt. That’s gonna that that increase in liquidity. So they’re going to move from what they call quantitative tightening to quantitative easing. And I have no idea why economists feel like they have to come up with these big terms. But it simply means that the government is going to move from a situation where they were not printing money to and really and creating more debt because they’re spending more money than they, than they have to a they’re gonna start printing money because they have bills to pay.

And that is gonna create inflation and more debt. So they’re kind of there it doesn’t matter which way they go. There there’s going to be more debt consequences for The United States, more inflation. But they have officially said starting December 1, which is only a few days from now, that they’re gonna they’ve already stopped the quantitative tightening. They’re gonna start quantitative easing. And in simplistic terms, in pleb terms, that simply means they’re about to turn the money printer on. And he contends that that’s gonna drive the price up.

I don’t know if it’s gonna be enough to overcome the rest of the things that are going on. That’s the thing. We don’t know, and we can’t we don’t know. So we’ll just have to see how it plays out. I do believe in you know, we didn’t Well, I do believe that Trump spent a significant amount of time kind of wasting our time. And maybe he thought that these were gonna help. He probably did. But it’s very clear in hindsight that they that they’re really not doing it. I what I’m talking about is the Doge stuff that went on the Department of Governmental Efficiency or whatever, which as a concept I love.

But man, they were saying that this was gonna change everything when it got started. If you remember when Elon went to Washington and, oh, this is great. Yes. They saved a lot of money and I’m glad for it. And I I’m all for less waste, fraud, and abuse, but it’s not gonna change our government overnight. The other thing that he’s done that, you know, oh, this was like his next thing is tariff. And yes, there’s a lot of inequity going on in world trading right now. And I’m not gonna argue about that or whatever, but but again, it’s not this big boondoggle. It’s not bringing in it’s bringing in money, a couple $100,000,000,000, I think, this year, which is nothing insignificant, but this is not going to solve our debt prices.

So what is he going to do next? He only has this one other option, print money, right? He’s been working the fed trying to get Jerome Powell out for a while and they finally things have kind of gotten bad enough that they have started lowering our rates a little bit, but he still wants Powell out. Powell is leaving in the spring. He that’s when his term is up. He’s not gonna quit before that, I don’t think. But Trump will put in his person and that person is gonna be favorable to him. I promise you. And to his policy, which will be print money because next next year is what they call the midterm elections.

So Jack is way Jack. Yeah. Jack is weighing on that. That he thinks that that’s what’s gonna help. Sure. And let’s come to the I I’m starting to think it’s not gonna happen soon enough. And No. The rest of the world and The United States, just the economy in general, we’re just gonna crash the whole system before we even get to the middle of next year. Right?

[00:25:28] Kenshin:

Yeah. Exactly. And and for me as a non American that have no no preference on on what America does, and I don’t have this patriotism because, of course Jack also has this and certainly you do too right? You want America to be great and all this and not with the slogan but you know what I mean. Not with what?

Not not the slogan, but I mean Oh. Not politically. But in general, you want America to be to be great. Yeah. But I I I don’t have that and I I don’t think, I don’t think like that. And as an outsider, I just see that, I just see that, any attempt, any lever that, America has pulled this year has not worked, has backfired.

[00:26:18] McIntosh:

A 100 well, not worked to the desired results. No. I’m not gonna say backfired.

[00:26:26] Kenshin:

I I would say backfired because then they have they have, gone back to to I mean, a lot of tariffs, then they said, okay. No. We don’t do that. And then they say something about China, and then two days later,

[00:26:39] McIntosh:

no. We won’t do that. And then That’s the one we And I don’t agree with it. Sorry, but let me interrupt here, please.

I don’t agree with it, but that is the way that Trump negotiate. Oh, I’m gonna hit you with a 100% tariff when he knows we’re gonna end up at a 25% tariff on the back end. Okay?

[00:27:01] Kenshin:

Sure. But it feels like those ideas had some merit in terms of Yes. Yeah. That will bring a revenue stream. And then they were like, oh, the market reacted in a way we didn’t expect. So we stop all that. Right. So then for me, it feels like they kept pulling levers with some decent ideas and then it’s like the market kept saying no, no, no, no. And that it feels like they run out of ideas.

So I don’t think America is in a great spot right now. No. We’re not. That sense.

[00:27:35] McIntosh:

Neither is a lot of countries, but no, we’re not. And I’ll be the first person to admit that. We’re not in a great place. But the and and that’s one of the that’s really the driving reason why I think that there’s gonna be a lot of money printing going on. So we’ve already he’s already announced. He wants to do these he calls them tariff dividends. So if you make a $100,000 or less, the idea is you’re supposed to get $2,000 in some form in the next few months, weeks, or so. I don’t know exactly when.

Okay? So where is that money coming from? Well, it’s coming from the tariffs, but the tariffs were supposed to pay down the, the debt. Well, okay. I don’t know. The end result is just money that printed that’s out there in being used to to whatever. Who knows what people are gonna do with it? But again, more money printing. And that’s just the start of all of this. I I I I believe we’re gonna see a spending extravaganza like maybe we’ve never seen before in the next few months as he, winds up his term.

[00:28:55] Kenshin:

Yeah. And that’s probably the start of the next bull market I would say. Maybe

[00:28:59] McIntosh:

maybe, you know, we tend to rush things and and maybe that’s what it is.

I don’t know. It’s very hard to discern, you know, bit how Bitcoin ties into the overall economic thing because that is changing. Four years ago, you didn’t have corporations, stacking Satoshis. Right? When did Michael Sailor get started? It I believe it was 2021, so that literally was four years ago. And he was the first, corporate not first. I’m sure he wasn’t, but the first major company.

[00:29:42] Kenshin:

Right? You know how you know, MSTR’s price, I had it in the news. MSTR MicroStrategy Mhmm. Is at 170, USD. They’re high in July, early this year. Fourth $404.34. Yeah. That’s minus 60%.

[00:30:00] McIntosh:

Yeah. See, they’re doing worse than Bitcoin.

[00:30:04] Kenshin:

Yeah. Their highs are higher. Their lows are lower. Right.

[00:30:08] McIntosh:

They are even more volatile than I’m wondering if Michael Saylor and he says in fact, I saw something from, like, within the last week. He says he’s not worried. He says, like, their their dollar cost basis is very low,

[00:30:23] Kenshin:

so on and so forth. Yeah. Yeah. I I’m not suggesting they’re in trouble, but it’s interesting to see I don’t know. Their multiple of the volatility.

[00:30:31] McIntosh:

At what point are they going to be in trouble? I think it’s a it’s an interesting question. I don’t I don’t wanna just turn this into a podcast about speculation on that. But Sure. You know, what if what what if we hit 50 k?

[00:30:45] Kenshin:

I think they will be fine still because You think so? Their average price of buying Bitcoin is much lower or it is somewhere there.

Because they’re essentially DCA in all this time since 2020. Right? And they’re still buying this this week, last week. When was it? They were still buying like crazy. Yeah.

[00:31:07] McIntosh:

Buying the dip.

[00:31:10] Kenshin:

Yeah. And I also wanted to mention BlackRock. Okay. They saw their record sales, in a day at

[00:31:21] McIntosh:

You mean people buying or you by sales, you mean

[00:31:25] Kenshin:

selling? Sell enough. Yeah. Sell enough. So I put a link here, and it was, it’s on Yahoo. It has a lot of pop ups. 4 523,000,000 in dollar terms.

[00:31:42] McIntosh:

Half $1,000,000,000 in one day.

[00:31:44] Kenshin:

In one day. In five days, they had 1,500,000,000.0. Here’s what I’m hearing.

[00:31:50] McIntosh:

The boomers don’t know how to HODL. No.

[00:31:56] Kenshin:

I I think everybody is is their first time going through that, I think? And is there panic selling? Mhmm. Which is good for us in a way? So some some good buying opportunities. But otherwise, I I guess that’s why it’s dropping quite a lot because you have now this big ETFs that we thought they would stabilize the volatility, but it seems Right. They intensified in those cases.

[00:32:23] McIntosh:

Yeah. Maybe next time they don’t, You know? Yeah. Maybe next time they’re a net benefit. One of the news items, which I don’t know that I have a link for, but New Hampshire, there was a town a town in New Hampshire that bought a $100,000,000 of Bitcoin for a, like a pension fund. I think. Mhmm. And I don’t think a situation like that would be selling Bitcoin based on a price drop like this.

I think they would be smart enough, I hope, to realize that dips are gonna happen. Bear markets are gonna happen, whatever. And they just need to hold on and, you know, continue to add to it over time. And I think we’ll see more and more of those over because there are millions of businesses. There are, you know, unions, like a lot of these pension fund type things are tied to debt that’s, or assets. What are, sorry, assets that are toxic that that they’re not going up. They’re going down. They’re, you know, they’re they’re it’s it’s a mess.

And the pensions aren’t growing the way that they’re supposed to. And they’re not gonna be able to do payouts and this kind of thing. Bitcoin can be an answer to that at least to an extent. I’m not suggesting that, say, well, Harvard. Oh, oddly enough, Harvard, a university, that Harvard should only have Bitcoin in their endowment fund. Now interestingly, Harvard disclosed the other day, that’s why I thought of this. It wasn’t it was iBit. That’s BlackRock. Right? It was iBit stock, but it’s a direct reflection of Bitcoin. At least that’s the idea. It’s not like MSTR where it’s, that’s the company, and that’s not directly tied to the price of Bitcoin. In this case, it was I think it was iBit, and it’s it’s a reflection of the Bitcoin price.

They own more of that than any other asset in their portfolio and their portfolio is huge. Like it’s massive. So what that means is they more they own more paper shares of bitcoin, if you want to call it that, then say Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, apple, all of these other tech darling companies, all of these other companies that you hear about, that are supposed to be these very high quality stocks that something like Harvard would own. I thought that was interesting. They doubled their share of big of that iBet stock if it’s iBit, just recently, they just closed.

[00:35:34] Kenshin:

Wow. You know who else appreciates the dip? Who’s that?

[00:35:39] McIntosh:

El Salvador. I’m glad you brought that up. Yeah. Yeah. Go ahead.

[00:35:47] Kenshin:

Supposedly, they bought a $100,000,000 worth around a thousand Bitcoin.

[00:35:52] McIntosh:

I thought it was a million.

[00:35:55] Kenshin:

A thousand Bitcoin. Much.

[00:35:58] McIntosh:

Wow. That’s amazing. On, November 18. That is three years worth of Bitcoin for them.

[00:36:07] Kenshin:

Yeah. Exactly. They they buy one per day. Right. And in one day, they just bought a thousand. So now they have 7,500 in their stock.

[00:36:18] McIntosh:

See. Now how can you think Bitcoin’s going to 58 k when El Salvador’s buying a a thousand? Are you kidding me?

Jack’s right. Oh, man.

[00:36:34] Kenshin:

It it’s just a redistribution of Bitcoin to the right hands, I guess.

[00:36:39] McIntosh:

Maybe. Okay. I think we’ve probably, you know, done that long enough. I, again, I want to emphasize regardless of whether it goes up or whether it goes down, regardless of whether, you know, I have to take Kenshin out to dinner 10 times because he’s right so much and I’m not, you should continue to DCA and try and tune out the noise. Now, Kenshin, I don’t wanna give away our private conversations. I think you’ll be okay with me sharing this. You you said something to the effect of this. You were kind of at the point in the cycle where you were it was making you feel uncomfortable, like you’re getting nervous.

Is that Yeah. Is that fair for me to say?

[00:37:32] Kenshin:

Yeah. Nervous in the sense that, I need to to to stack more now. Now it’s an opportunity. Right. Okay. But is it going further down or in in that sense? And yeah. And instead, I just DCA more.

[00:37:48] McIntosh:

There are people who are new to this space. If you’ve not been in Bitcoin very long, let’s say, even for a couple years, and you’re nervous maybe is it going to zero? Did I mess up? Right? That’s okay. For me, Somehow I’ve managed to get to the point where the price almost doesn’t matter to me. If it gets low enough, I will buy as much as I possibly can.

But beyond that, I’m just doing the DCA thing and biding my time because I know in a long enough timeframe that what I have will be worth far more than anything else that I can do in my life. So $80.90, a 100, a 126, you know, seventy, sixty, fifty, fifty eight. Our news item, let’s just go ahead and do this. We do have a news article item, this nut on Bloomberg, which ironically in the interview talks about how much he fails at predicting things. I I don’t know if you caught that, Kenshin. It was kinda wild because here you’ve got analyst on Bloomberg. The well, like, one of the top financial networks or whatever in The United States, I guess, in the world.

And he’s going, yeah. You know, I kinda sorta got that right. I’ve missed this and blah blah blah. And then he’s like, yeah. Bitcoin’s going to 10 k. I’m I’m he literally he’s like, I’m predicting Bitcoin’s gonna go to 10 k. I’m like, if Bitcoin were to get anywhere close to that, I would be backing the truck up and just loading it up with as much as I could. You know? It’s not financial advice, ladies and gentlemen, but what I would do is I would buy as much as I could. Would you do that, Kenshin?

[00:40:00] Kenshin:

Yeah. Absolutely. And I would I mean, I would welcome it.

[00:40:04] McIntosh:

I oh, yes. At least temporarily. I would I would do things that would be financially irresponsible. I’m gonna be honest, and I’m not gonna, you know, spell all that out. But, you know, Dave Ramsey would not be happy with me at that point. But Dave Ramsey is stuck. Never mind. I’m not I we did an entire episode or I did. I think that was prior to you on Dave Ramsey. We’re not going there today. Okay? But but I believe there’s there’s no reason for me to misbelieve that even if we’re at 10 k, even if they were to discover, oh, maybe this is your fear.

They could find a bug in Bitcoin. Could. Maybe an inflation bug. It happened. It did. There was one. It never got used. It was discovered and removed, but there was an inflation bug.

[00:41:08] Kenshin:

Mhmm.

[00:41:09] McIntosh:

What what about this, that, or the other? Well, I have enough belief in the developers of the code and knowing that Bitcoin as an open source code platform is available for viewing by anyone in the world with an Internet connection. That the bugs that will be there are not severe and can be fixed quickly if there is one that happened. So if there’s if tomorrow they announce there’s this bug in Bitcoin and it causes the market to drop from $80,000 down to, let’s just say 60 because that sounds almost reasonable.

I’ll be buying Bitcoin. That’s just me. Yeah. Okay. Yeah. I agree. You got any final words? I love leaving you the final word. You’re the smart guy.

[00:42:11] Kenshin:

No. No. I just want to say that, if I personally might come across a bit maybe negative, but I don’t I don’t try to be negative. I am positive. I think you’re realistic. Absolutely. For the future. You’re not negative. I try to say I’m realistic, but of course, can be construed as negative sometimes. But

[00:42:34] McIntosh:

And this is actually why I I could not trade effective because I am overly optimistic. I and you may agree. I hope you agree. In the long run, Bitcoin’s going up and up and up.

But Yeah. Sure. I don’t know what time frame that is. And every time Bitcoin goes down, I’m like, okay. We’re at 83,000. It’s not going down any lower. Lever along that sucker, and then it drops down another $5,000, and I get liquidated. Yeah. That’s why I can’t trade. That’s why most peep well

[00:43:14] Kenshin:

No no one should trade with leverage, at least. I am overly optimistic.

[00:43:18] McIntosh:

You are, I believe, more of a realist, and you’re probably right. I’m I’m, at this point, really starting to swing to the idea that, yep, that was it. We missed the top. Well, you didn’t. You Kinshin did not. I we need to just, like and you would you know, you’re like, you’re you’re the GOAT. Is that what they call it? The greatest of all time? Right? You know, you called it.

[00:43:45] Kenshin:

Well, as long as the pattern stays, why why should we say otherwise? And every time we say this time is different, and then every time we are proved wrong.

[00:43:58] McIntosh:

See, I I’ve told you a number of times until the four year cycle is proven wrong, I’m gonna believe in the four year cycle, but I got fixated on the price and said, we haven’t hit a 150. How can we beat?

[00:44:11] Kenshin:

Exactly. Right? The same last time. We didn’t hit a 100. So

[00:44:16] McIntosh:

Oh, I knew when FTX went down, that was not good. I knew that I knew for a while before FTX exploded that there was that that was just a mess. It was getting very obvious. And that dude that was running that, what’s his name?

SPF? Yeah. What’s the full name? I don’t remember. No. Yeah. The the guy that he ran out to The Bahamas with his girlfriend, and he ended up in jail and whatever. And she didn’t because she flipped him. Good times. Yeah. Whatever. Alright. Hey. We have a supporter this week, Kenshin. You wanna read that? Oh, well.

[00:44:58] Kenshin:

Yeah. Where is it?

[00:45:00] McIntosh:

I’m sorry. I didn’t get you off hand. Yeah. I see.

[00:45:05] Kenshin:

Sent it, Mike. Yeah. 1,069 SATs. Thank you very much. Send it, Mike. He said, great discussion on quantum. I think doing some updates to the structure of the pod will be good. Thank you very much, because we asked for feedback on that. Yeah. And then he says, picking up sponsors isn’t the end of the world. Keep up the good work in their way. Yeah. Thanks, Mike. Yeah. Thank you, Mike. I appreciate that. That was some, that was some great input.

[00:45:35] McIntosh:

Okay. We’ve really already covered the news, haven’t we? Yeah. We did. We did. We covered all that in our discussion, so we’ll skip that. Okay. As we record, our Bitcoin price is I hope you’re sitting down. $83,500. How many euros?

[00:45:55] Kenshin:

72,500.

[00:45:57] McIntosh:

And you guys are on a fire sale over there.

[00:46:01] Kenshin:

Wow. Yeah. It’s and we are from the all time high of 106, I think, thousand euros. So, yeah, 72 sounds very low. And price Yes. Last November, it was at 98,500 USD, which is That’s just around fifth yeah. Minus 15% approximately.

[00:46:22] McIntosh:

So Thanksgiving is next Thursday. So when we’re sitting around the table, please don’t let your relatives get under your skin when they say, but last year, Bitcoin was higher.

Okay.

[00:46:36] Kenshin:

Zoom out. We still have yeah. Yeah. I I want to add something there because I remember when I was, DCA, nothing we don’t have to say the amount now, but, let’s say when looking back, it’s like, okay. I was worrying about those prices, and they’re so far back. It’s like no one cares. So let’s say let’s say Bitcoin is at a million. Will you care that’s No. Now it’s it was at 80 instead of a 100 or a 120. It’s like Yeah. So far back and so, you know, such a scale back. So, yeah, I agree. Zoom out.

[00:47:15] McIntosh:

There’s actually, I got one news item before we sorry. I wanna circle back, but I did think this was extremely hilarious.

On Primal yesterday, Lynn Alden posted a retweet from a year ago. So you have to put this in perspective. A year ago, she posted this. Part of me so a year ago, what was our price? We just read it. 98,002. Part of me hopes I’m sorry. I’m gonna start laughing. Part of me part of me hopes that we drop the 85 k and chop around there for a few months and establish the 85 k game just for meme potential. Okay? Okay. Lynn, here we are one year later. We’re gonna chop around 85. It’s her fault. That’s the see, that’s the thing. It’s her fault. It’s her fault. Yeah.

Oh, that was so funny. I I sorry.

[00:48:20] Kenshin:

Alright. Yeah. Sold out today too.

[00:48:23] McIntosh:

Fees and mempool. One set for vByte, 40,600 of unprocessed transactions. That was actually yesterday, but I bet it hasn’t changed. Sorry. I did not update that. We’re at a 140. Yep. We’re almost exactly the same. There we go. And Yeah. Yeah. That’s it. Market cap

[00:48:46] Kenshin:

market cap, we have 1,700,000,000,000.0 USD for Bitcoin and 28.3 for gold, which brings us at 6.1%.

[00:48:57] McIntosh:

Are we doing anything special for Thanksgiving next week? Let’s have a little programming discussion. What’s on topic?

Last year, we did the thankful for Bitcoin or something like that. Yeah. You wanna do that again? Sure. I had to pull the episode notes out and remember what we talked about. But yeah. Yeah. I think it’s appropriate we got Thanksgiving coming up. We’ll be spending time at least here in The States with our family, eating too much and maybe watching some football and that kind of thing. Yeah.

[00:49:32] Kenshin:

Let’s do that. And then you have the Monday off too. So because Why? My colleagues at work said they are off for five straight days. Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday. Are you serious?

[00:49:42] McIntosh:

Yeah. Five days straight. No. I get Thursday off, and I get Friday.

And I I would take another day off, but I can’t I get antsy. I’ve been four days without, like, working way too much. If I would just actually work on my own stuff, I’d be fine. But I get pulled into my never mind. Hey. Satoshi’s Club is a value for value podcast, supporting podcasting two point o. We strive to bring you honest Bitcoin content every week. We ask, are you getting value from this show? Support it through time, talent, or treasure. Help with your future projects. Stream some sats. Boost with messages just like send it Mike did today.

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[00:51:10] Kenshin:

So thanks for being here. We hope this has been helpful and we would love to hear from you on NoSR if you want this weekend.

Find all our contact info at satoshis dot plebs dot com. Stay humble. You see all those ads, and have a great weekend. Bye bye.

[00:51:28] McIntosh:

We’ll talk to y’all soon. And hey, McIntosh. Hit that save button.