[00:00:00] McIntosh:

Welcome back to Satoshi’s Plebs for episode two thirty. I’m Mcintosh.

[00:00:05] Kenshin:

I am Kenshin. And in today’s episode, we ask if this is the start of the bear market.

[00:00:11] McIntosh:

Alright, Kenshin. So, I’ve kinda known this one was coming for a bit based on some things that you’ve been saying, so I’m not really surprised. And it’s funny because the the noise on the Internet has just gotten louder and louder about, you know, is this a bear market? But we’ll we’ll get to that. Looking forward to it. We’re at a block height of nine two zero two nine zero as we start recording. And, from there, what what’s new with Kenshin? I haven’t talked to you, really in a couple of weeks.

[00:00:44] Kenshin:

Yeah. Well, I know you were on a trip, so looking forward to hearing that Mhmm. Next. But I’ve been, I would say, quite busy, with my work again since I told you I changed positions within the company. So Right. Right.

[00:01:01] McIntosh:

Are you regretting that change? Can I ask that?

[00:01:06] Kenshin:

In some ways, yeah, but no. But I I usually like change even though we are programmed to be resistance to change. Right?

[00:01:17] McIntosh:

Right.

[00:01:19] Kenshin:

So I take it over not changing at this point. But that meant that I was again on a trip actually last week. Oh. Within Sweden, so it was not a big trip. But it was nice to be in a bigger city than mine.

Yeah. It’s nice to be back in a big city. I had to recalibrate my brain, you know, take the bus, take the tram, and stuff like that, you know. How to do things in the city.

[00:01:47] McIntosh:

Okay. Very cool.

[00:01:50] Kenshin:

Yeah. And, I also got a new phone. I got, the Pixel. What did you end up getting? A Pixel? Pixel? Yeah. What? 10? Are we up to ten now? No. Yeah. It’s up to ten, but I got the nine. You got it? Nine Pro. We got I don’t want to go for the Fancy. New price. Yeah. It was hard choice, but, in the end, I I really wanted to have GrapheneOS. I didn’t want to have anything else. So, unfortunately, that was the only choice.

But GrapheneOS, such actually was on the news last week. They are planning. Yeah. They’re planning with a manufacturer with an OEM to offer GrapheneOS with a new device.

[00:02:35] McIntosh:

Who was the manufacturer?

[00:02:36] Kenshin:

 They didn’t say, but they said the top it’s within the top 10 of manufacturers.

[00:02:43] McIntosh:

Okay. Oh, that’s promising.

[00:02:46] Kenshin:

Yeah. So but it will take a couple of years from now. So they said Yeah. ‘26 or ‘27.

[00:02:54] McIntosh:

Yeah. That’s a slow process, unfortunately. Yeah. Not as quickly as we would like. I would love to see more adapt adoption of both it and, various I mean, there’s Linux more Linux based phone operating systems out there as well besides that.

And more interesting hardware that, unfortunately, is just not there’s just not a market. I I don’t feel like there should be, but, you know, it’s just one of these Don Quixote things. Do you know you know who Don Quixote is? The guy who tilted at the windmills. Yeah. It’s just but that is good news. That is good news that they’re at least getting one major manufacturer on board, so we’ll see where it goes. Very cool.

[00:03:42] Kenshin:

Yes. How about you?

[00:03:44] McIntosh:

I was on a trip. We got back. So we record on Wednesday. We got back on Monday. So two days ago, I picked up a cold along the way. I apologize.

I kind of I started feeling it on Monday or Sunday, and it’s just I hope yesterday was the worst. We’ll see. I’ve I’m medicineed up, and I don’t know. I just I don’t have time for this. But our trip was very nice. We just real quickly, we we flew into Boston, which is in Massachusetts. It is one of it’s basically kind of well, it’s the birthplace of the American Revolution. I’ll put it that way. So this is where the American colonists fought the British, in the what we call the revolutionary war, that America gained its independence from Britain. So there’s a lot of historical stuff there. We flew into Boston, then we immediately, the next day, drove up to Maine, which is a state above Massachusetts.

And we were in Maine for, like, four days. It’s we stopped in Bangor or we stayed the night in Bangor. They don’t call it that. It’s Bangor, and I I never get it right, and they always it’s it’s a thing. And then we went down to what’s called Acadia National Park and spent two nights there, which is a beautiful island off the coast Of Maine. You should look it up. If you have any interest in going to the Northeast to that area, it I would highly recommend it pace personally. I think it was mine and my wife’s favorite spot. We did a number of cool things there. We got to ride on some, electric bikes.

So they have, like, a motor, which is kinda crazy in the frame, and they help you get up hills and things like that. So we actually rode 20 miles that day. Got a little tired, but, saw lots of nice stuff. Let’s see. Going on from there, we went up to the easternmost point in The United States, which is actually ironically called West Quadi. I’m probably not saying that quite right. And which is a there’s a lighthouse there. Like, literally, you can see Canada from there. And we spent a night there, then we drove over to New Hampshire for one night, and then we drove over to, Vermont, and then we drove back to Boston for three days.

We stayed with some friends. And while we were there, we visited a bunch of historical sites. Like, we saw the USS Constitution, which is very famous, sail sailing ship warship. We did what’s called the Freedom Trail, which is like a two mile long walk through Boston, through parts of Boston that begins or ends at Bunker Hill, which is one of the first battles that happened. It’s the first real battle that happened in the revolutionary war. Anyways, we saw a number of historical sites and all this kind of stuff, and we we enjoyed the food. We enjoyed the time with our friends. It it it was a good time. Now, unfortunately, in New Hampshire, the night that we were there, about the time we went to bed, I started having a pain, in my lower stomach and, ended up having to go to the ER about 01:30 in the morning. So a couple of years ago, I think I’ve told you all this, and you may not know this, Kenshin, because this was prior to you, and I don’t know how far back you’ve listened.

But I had a a gall Your gallbladder is an organ in your body, and it manages actually, like, it helps with your digestion. Okay. And you get gallstones in the gallbladder, and they cause lots of problems. A few years ago, I had a problem, very similar, ended up having to go to the ER, got a CAT scan, you know, which they found the the gallstone. I was on medicine for quite a while. I did not get surgery. I don’t like having knives around my body, other than ones I carry. And, you know, for two years, it’s actually been okay.

Well, it flared back up. So I we dealt with it that night. I like I said, I went to the ER. They basically gave me an anti inflammatory, which which they gave it by IV. So it’s like going into my arm. Like, as soon as they put it in there, it immediately stopped hurting. It was crazy because I was in so much pain. And then it’s just like, boom. Like, oh, okay. Well, I mean, there’s a little bit of discomfort going on there, but no stabbing pain in my really in my lower part of my body. You know? It’s not actually my stomach. It’s hard not to say my stomach, but yeah. Alright. So that threw a little curveball.

My wife was a trooper. I don’t know if she’ll ever listen to this, but, she did a great job. It didn’t really interrupt things. We we basically stayed a couple of extra hours at our Airbnb. We asked for kind of an extension, which they kindly let us because we did not get home until, like, 05:30 in the morning. So we got a few hours of sleep, then we went on to Vermont, you know, and went on about our way. And I had a little bit of trouble after that a couple of times. Nothing nearly as severe. I actually we were getting on the plane, in Boston to come home, and I was in the line, the security checkpoint, and it was going really slow.

And I start sweating profusely, and I did not feel good. And I’m like, I’m thinking they’re gonna have to take me out of here on a gurney to the hospital again and cause all kinds of problems. And I don’t know what it was, but it actually went away. I’m sure it was related. The stuff is just I don’t I don’t normally have problems like this. I really don’t. But, yeah, it’s it was kind of an experience. So I’ve already been to my primary care doctor, and we’re gonna get another ultrasound or an ultrasound. I got a CAT scan the other night to kind of help figure things out and, you know, go from there. So we’ll see.

Good time. So

[00:10:27] Kenshin:

Hopefully, it’s nothing too serious.

[00:10:30] McIntosh:

Well, worst case, they’re gonna have take out my gallbladder, which the it’s a routine surgery, but it can cause complications, and that’s really why I’m trying to avoid it. It’s got side effects or it does for some people. Can you help it with some diet or something else? Well, if you can stop eating fried foods, which, you know, the South and fried foods are synonymous. So that’s a problem. And, actually, I think that’s what triggered it because we were going through Maine, for all that time, and we were literally eating or I was. My wife did not every night, but I was eating seafood every day. And it was all almost all of it was fried.

So I’m pretty sure it that’s actually what triggered everything. There are some treatments, and I may try and do that again, because it doesn’t appear that I’ve got, like, a whole bunch. It’s probably one that’s kind of up at the top of the gallbladder that’s in they they call it, like, the little neck or whatever, but it it’s actually irritating that. And that’s kinda what’s causing all the problem. I don’t know. I’m not afraid to get the surgery. I just I’m I’m concerned about the side effects because I do like to eat in case nobody figured that out by now. And I have to spend the rest of my life basically not eating fried food or food that, like, buttery oily kind of stuff is would be a a shame.

Yeah. So beyond that, sorry. I took I know that was a lot. I apologize. But and I am gonna post some pictures on Noster, by the way. Yeah. You sent me a couple. One second. You, one or two. We got out some. I only have my little iPhone for a camera. I really wanna get a real setup one day. But, I also want Bitcoin, and I would love to get a new truck and a few other things. So that may not happen anytime soon. But, yeah, I’ll post some of those if you’re following me on Noster. I would highly recommend something along those lines to anyone who’s thinking about going to that area. I would say probably the one thing and I enjoyed the driving personally. I mean, the we did we stayed off the interstates. Like, we drove down the little highways.

There was a lot of stuff to see, but we did a lot of driving. I’m I would actually suggest pick out a couple of primary spots and then go spend a few days there because there’s a lot of stuff to do in almost all of those places. The only place that you probably would not need more than a day, day and a half, the very east point that I said of Maine, like the easternmost point in The United States, there’s not a whole lot there. We saw some great coastline, but, yeah, there’s just not a whole lot out there. But Alright. Yeah. You you you were at the closest point to to me, I guess. That would be true, actually. Yes. That was literally as close as I could get to you.

Without crossing the water. Without crossing the ocean. Without while still being in The United States. I mean, there was literally a a Canadian island you could see it off the coast. So I don’t know how all that got divided up. I would who knows? But I I don’t know. But yeah. Alright. So and then one last thing. I did update my my little computer to a bun two twenty five dot 10, which came out a few weeks ago. I probably should have waited a little longer. The upgrade actually broke, and I ended up having to do kind of a clean install while keeping my one partition, my big data partition, you know, by itself.

And it worked out, but I ended up having to do a fair amount of kind of hand work to get things back and going. So I’ve got my Bitcoin, knots, actually, the latest knots running and then electors. I did not get sync signal installed, which is why we’re not doing this on that computer. I forgot to do that. SSH is up and running. So I I’ve already started working on a an AI project, actually for my wife on on the new setup. So I’ll talk about that another time. Anyways, there we go. That was way too much. Sorry.

[00:14:55] Kenshin:

It’s okay.

[00:14:56] McIntosh:

That’s why we have chapters, people. Alright. What are we talking about? What okay. First of all, I cannot believe I’m just gonna say for the record. I’m I’m a little disappointed, Ken Chen. Well, you know, everyone’s allowed to have their own opinion. Yeah. But, like, a week and a half ago, you two or so, maybe it’s been longer than that. You sent me a message with this screen we’re gonna talk about. Right? And you’re like, well, maybe this is the bear market. Yeah. Alright. I will say Yeah. I don’t want to be So, well, no. We need to talk about this is everybody in Bitcoin is talking about, like, I would say probably more than half the people at this point think that we’re about to start a bear market.

Because even though we hit an all time high, how long ago was it? It’s literally, like, three weeks ago. Right? It was in October. It just can’t it seems stalled in this kind of range. So right now, as we record, we’re at, like, a 107 or a 108,000. But, you know, I I get it. It the grind is real, but I let’s talk about what you actually posted. So we let’s start there. So go ahead.

[00:16:24] Kenshin:

So it’s a post from, the account called Flash on Nostr, which is a news account. He posts a lot of news every day. Okay. So credit to where credit is due, but he’s posting a screenshot actually from, is is maybe a mail thread or something or a forum a forum. I mean,

[00:16:51] McIntosh:

I don’t know which forum, so I don’t know where to find it. It says view thread. So it I’m wondering if maybe if it’s the bitcoin.org website or whatever. Could be. Bitcoin forum.

[00:17:03] Kenshin:

Yeah.

[00:17:04] McIntosh:

I don’t know. But yeah. Yeah. So

[00:17:07] Kenshin:

is this account that post a pattern? A pattern that, goes all the way back to 02/2015. So a ten year pattern Ten years. Up to now. And, this guy or girl posted this, where was this, date on 2023. So two years ago, they posted this and they said, if this pattern continues, the next all time high will be 10/06/2025.

[00:17:39] McIntosh:

Right.

[00:17:40] Kenshin:

And indeed on 10/06/2025, we had the last all time high so far. Right? So far. Mhmm. So we’re two weeks in,

[00:17:52] McIntosh:

still in the balance. So in that pattern, we just touched the all time high and we will not go higher than that, which by definition means we’re at the start of the bear market.

[00:18:02] Kenshin:

Yeah. And to go to explain that pattern even more. So, the pattern starts into 2015, with all time low or, or the low of that period is a bit weird to rephrase. But anyway, the low from 2015 to the all time high in 2017, that was ten sixty four days Okay. From that all time high to the next bear market lowest point in 2018, so a year later, it was three hundred sixty four days. From that low to the next all time high in 2021, one thousand sixty four days. Exactly the same amount of days as the previous pattern. Okay. And from that point in 2021 to the next low in 2022, three hundred sixty four days, exactly the same amount of days as the period from 2017 to 2018.

And from that point oddly specific. Yeah. And from that low, and that that person did that a year after from that low, plus one thousand sixty four days Right. Takes us to October 6. That’s how that person predicted October 6. Right. And it happened If this week, next week, we get the new all time high, this button breaks. Know. First of all,

[00:19:32] McIntosh:

yes. October 6 did happen. That is a true statement. Bitcoin did close the day at whatever it was that it closed at, which is currently the all time high. But until until sometime, we don’t know that that’s true. So I would say that first of all.

Now I don’t know this account.

[00:19:53] Kenshin:

No. The pattern the pattern is proven right because you could add this fifth fifth line with that number 1064. So until now, that pattern is fully right.

[00:20:05] McIntosh:

So I don’t I mean, this is an anonymous account. Yeah. I don’t know who this person is. I don’t know where they came up with their data. Now they do have a chart here, but there’s this thing called AI. I don’t know if you’ve ever heard of it. Yeah. It can it can it can, you know, make nice charts. I haven’t looked at this data.

[00:20:31] Kenshin:

Okay?

[00:20:32] McIntosh:

I I don’t know if these days are correct. I would like to know that, first of all.

But if they are correct, it is so specific. October, March, October, March, and then now October. To me, that’s not a market. That’s pure manipulation. Alright. Does that make sense? That’s a good point. Because you’re talking about millions of people trading. We’ve got the four year cycle, which does, in my opinion, somewhat control things. But you’ve got millions of people. You’ve got news. You’ve got political events. You’ve got all of these factors. Yeah. How on earth does it end up in exactly those days? Yeah. That’s my point. I don’t know. So from my conspiracy mindset, that’s my question. So I find that extremely hard to believe, which here’s what I’m going to do. I’ve not had time to do this, so I’m not gonna have an answer today.

I’m gonna go back and look this up. I mean, TradingView has this data. If this is correct, well, pack it up. The party’s over. Yeah. I don’t know what that means because how could somebody manipulate the market that exactly?

[00:21:58] Kenshin:

I I don’t think it’s manipulation because you you said we have the four year cycle that we do have, and those days are four years.

[00:22:06] McIntosh:

Do you know what the chances of that happening exactly on those days are? Not to the month, not to the quarter, to the day.

[00:22:16] Kenshin:

Yeah. It’s crazy. I I wouldn’t call it manipulation. I don’t know. Can you call it coins? I don’t know. It’s it’s very old. It’s very, very old. But that person two years two years ago, that person based on that pattern, that person predicted the October 6 all time high, which is still active.

[00:22:39] McIntosh:

There are tools in TradingView that, you know, we can kind of reproduce this with maybe half an hour of work. Yeah. Okay. I agree. And I I am going to guess. Maybe I shouldn’t, but I’m gonna guess that we’re gonna find out that these numbers just are not right. Like, it’s not exact. I can’t believe it’s that exact. Now maybe it is. And if it is, that opens up other questions that we can then talk about. I wish I would have done that before the show, but I have not had time. Look. A a quick look. I see that in

[00:23:16] Kenshin:

12/04/2017, it’s an all time high.

And I see that if

[00:23:23] McIntosh:

Okay. Hang on. And I do this. We’ll do one of these right here on the air. Yeah. I’m gonna ask I think it’s right. To do this numbering. Alright. December 4, all time high. What’s the the low?

[00:23:37] Kenshin:

Oh, sorry. 11/11. December 11. Sorry.

[00:23:41] McIntosh:

December 11 of what year? 2017. 2017 to what time? What’s the next date to the low?

[00:23:50] Kenshin:

The lowest closing, 31953 yeah. December 1738.

[00:24:02] McIntosh:

December 1738 is how many days? Now where are you getting these numbers from? Go go charting.com.

[00:24:18] Kenshin:

But he’s using a Coinbase

[00:24:20] McIntosh:

BTC USD. So he’s already wrong. Three hundred and seventy one days, not sixty four.

Okay. So think about it. From December 11 to December 11 is three hundred and sixty five days. The it was not a leap year. Okay? From 12/11/2018 to 12/17/2018 is another six days. Wait. So that’s three hundred and seventy one days. This this math does matter. It’s the closing. Maybe I told you the wrong You you always would go from the closing. The closing. Mon Monday,

[00:24:58] Kenshin:

12/10/2018. I see now. December 10. Okay. That makes it worse. No. December 10. From okay.

[00:25:08] McIntosh:

Wait.

[00:25:09] Kenshin:

Yeah. I I made a mistake. I saw the lowest, not the closing.

[00:25:13] McIntosh:

Closing. So you’re saying it’s from December 11 to December 10?

Yeah. That’s on That would be three hundred and sixty four days. Now I really wanna look at this chart. Yeah. No. No. That that’s the right changed six days.

[00:25:26] Kenshin:

No. I I looked

[00:25:29] McIntosh:

Okay. Yeah. I I looked it wrong. So one of those data points has proven true. Yeah. We need to do some more research, but and we’re not gonna do this. This is not sinelating audio content here. Yeah. So we need to move on. But Yeah. I want to verify that that’s true for every step of the way before I give this any credence because it’s amazing how lucky one person out of millions can be.

[00:25:55] Kenshin:

Right? It’s just a numbers game. Yeah. And and I guess it’s it’s it’s data. Right? So

[00:26:01] McIntosh:

it should be there. Yeah. We will find we can verify the data. Scary to me if this is actually true simply because how crazy these numbers are in terms of it’s exactly these numbers. Like like somebody is manipulating this, and yet I know that in general, that’s not true. Now whales Bitcoin whales, they can manipulate the market. They can temporarily buy up things or or sell their coin and, you know, dampen the market. Yeah.

[00:26:33] Kenshin:

But why would they do that? That’s just it all doesn’t make none of it makes sense to me. I don’t know. I mean, the coincidence factor here is crazy as you say. And and, oh, you said another thing. All those things that happen globally that affect the market, and we see they affect the market. FDX collapsing, tariffs and whatever. So

[00:26:56] McIntosh:

Trump has a meeting with Xi, the premier from China Yeah. Later this month. As far as I can tell and know, that meeting is going to happen. Now maybe everybody gets together. They shake hands. Hey. Rare earth, no problem.

Tariffs, no. We’re not gonna you know, maybe we’re gonna make it a very reasonable amount. And the market the next day just takes off. Yep. Because that’s what would happen. And but you don’t think Bitcoin’s gonna do that? I I don’t know. But, man, I just I think it’s way too early to be calling this done.

[00:27:37] Kenshin:

Yeah. I I mean, I agree. I mean, we were not done in this bull market. I agree. But if that pattern continues, we’re in the bear market. It’s

[00:27:49] McIntosh:

as simple as that. Alright. Let’s let’s take the viewpoint that there was someone or a group of people who were controlling it.

At some point, if Bitcoin continues to grow in usage and people and all that kind of stuff, at some point, they will not be able to. Now the question would be where does that point come? When you have governments mining Bitcoin, when you have governments going getting on board with Bitcoin, there’s another news item today that we’ll talk about, for Bitcoin for trade, Bitcoin for, you know, people more and more people buying Bitcoin. Michael Saylor. Michael Saylor was not a thing until, like, 2021. Right? Didn’t he start buying Bitcoin, I wanna say, in 2021?

[00:28:39] Kenshin:

[00:28:40] McIntosh:

Yeah. Okay. And yet, now he’s bought, like, an ungodly number of Bitcoin. I mean, it’s crazy. At some point, they will not be able to control that market if there literally is someone doing that. I I’m not it’s gonna take a lot of convincing of me before I believe that, but let’s just play the devil’s advocate. Let’s say that that’s true. At some point, that will not be true. Just like at some point, I believe that the Bitcoin price will detach from the four year cycle. Again, with, with increased usage and so on and so forth. If if we fast forward, Kenshin, to the point where Bitcoin, as I believe it will happen, and I guess it’s a belief, but and I always say it that way. But let’s say that Bitcoin is a global currency.

Do you think that the four year cycle is gonna make a dent in anything in that except number go up immediately? Because it’s more and more difficult to mine that Bitcoin, but we have to have it to do commerce. I mean, I I don’t know. Yeah. I mean, we’re just speculating, certainly, but, man.

[00:30:04] Kenshin:

Yeah. And and I I I’m not calling for any manipulation myself. I don’t know how this can be such a coincidence, but it it follows a four year cycle because those those two numbers together are four years. So one year for the bear market, three years, the bull market. But but for me, I would say, Bitcoin has to follow gold. So I expect Bitcoin to go higher.

I expect that that the bull market is not over. I certainly expect that. But seeing this pattern, I’m thinking, well

[00:30:38] McIntosh:

Look. We all know you entered a trade. What do they call it? A short. We know you did.

[00:30:44] Kenshin:

No. I can only buy Bitcoin. I cannot

[00:30:49] McIntosh:

If it goes up to, you know, $1.26, whatever the high is again Yeah. Yeah. And and stalls out, I might enter a short at that point. That would be awesome if you shorted the market on the day that it reached the all time high. I mean, how crazy would that be?

[00:31:09] Kenshin:

Mhmm. Yeah. It’s crazy. I mean, it’s a ten year pattern. It’s crazy.

[00:31:13] McIntosh:

I need to look at that data. I cannot believe that. Obviously, the one that we did was true. I I’m gonna work through every one of them. You know? Statistically, I can’t see how that’s possible. A four year pattern with a quarter I mean, I’ve already I’ve been on the record saying I thought it was gonna be this quarter. I’ve said it over and over until and I’ve said until proven otherwise that so literally, if that were the case, I would be correct. I would not be correct about the price. I said $1.50 to $2.50, I think. This is where I need that LLM and all of our stuff indexed in it because I could look it up.

What did Macintosh say the all time high would be? But, you know, it’s not going up as high as I thought it would. But the the the granularity that they’re doing is just I I that blows my mind.

[00:32:11] Kenshin:

Well, I I did check. My chart is every candle is weeks, one week.

[00:32:17] McIntosh:

Oh, no. No. That is not accurate enough. No. But that one We we need one day candles. Yeah. I agree.

[00:32:24] Kenshin:

But that is what gave me that that number three six four. So maybe that person was looking at weekly candles. So I don’t know.

[00:32:33] McIntosh:

See, so they’re fuzzing the data. So now we are getting some variance. No. Okay. I’m assuming. That’s what I did. I don’t know what they did. So I will look at it’s you you really have my curiosity on this. I just kinda blew you off the first time you sent me Yeah. This. Yeah. But to be honest, I’m very interested in this in this point because, man, if we’re at an all time high, I do. I need to enter a short that is not trading advice, people.

Macintosh would be using his own stupid money to do that, not like his rent or his big his DCA.

[00:33:08] Kenshin:

Yeah. So as assuming this pattern is accurate and continues for whatever reason Mhmm. That means that the next old time or the next lowest point in the bear market that started will be on October 6 again 2026.

[00:33:28] McIntosh:

[00:33:29] Kenshin:

Yeah.

[00:33:30] McIntosh:

So that when you need to do so I would change my entire advice. I mean, I’d be like, don’t DCA. Save it up until October 6 year. Yeah. And then go all in. I don’t know, man. That’s that’s pretty mind boggling if that I believe in patterns. I do. I mostly because of the psychology behind it. If you have enough people trading, so pattern right now on silver that just is mind blowing.

There’s a, there’s a pattern called cup and, cup and handle. It it looks it literally looks like a cup, like a teacup with a handle. Okay? So it goes right? And then a little there’s a forty five year pattern on silver of a cup and handle. Okay? Forty it’s forty five years. It goes back to 1980.

[00:34:43] Kenshin:

Right.

[00:34:44] McIntosh:

K? It goes back to 1980. And what that means by that pattern is silver is just getting started, and it will go extremely much, much higher. Now will it? I don’t know. But that that if you go back through the data, like, literally 70%, Well, I don’t know that there’s ever it’s been a long time since there’s been a cup and handle or whatever they call it pattern that’s over such a wide range. Like, normally, it’s a few weeks, a few months, maybe a few years.

And, typically, the bigger the the longer the time frame, the more reliable it is. So if I were a silver trader, you know, I’d be stocking up on the options at this point because it should be a rocket $100. Now I don’t know the the physical demand, the re I just I’m not sure that that’s true, but it’s a crazy pattern. But it becomes self fulfilling because it’s been done so many times in the past. Yeah.

[00:35:52] Kenshin:

And I I can tell you this for myself when I saw this pattern now, I had a certain amount of of euros that I wanted to to exchange for Bitcoin, right? And strike.

This this specific pattern made me hesitate and I only exchanged half of it and I kept the other half for the next couple of weeks to see what happened. So you’re right. It’s a self fulfilling prophecy. I would have bought more Bitcoin Right. Last week, but I didn’t because of of looking at this.

[00:36:27] McIntosh:

I don’t wanna be telling people to do anything, and I’m not doing anything other than DCA at this point. No. But I you know, if you are riskier, if you’re not so adverse to risk, then what I would say is if we are in a proven bear market, in other words, we’re heading towards an all not an all time low, but the next low. You know, maybe you set aside half of your coin just like what Kenshin is talking about, or maybe you set aside all of it.

But you are taking a risk. Yeah. You are. And don’t, you know, don’t forget that. I and I it’s it’s so simple just to DCA and then forget about it. Yeah. Correct. Versus anything else that I’m very hesitant to tell people anything else. And I’ve tried almost all of it, guys. So you know?

[00:37:25] Kenshin:

Mhmm. Yeah. And and for the record, my DCA amount hasn’t changed. It keeps going every day. But but, yeah, it’s, it’s not in the, as you say, financial advice, but it’s just a curious pattern that I would like to. I would like to see it broken. I can tell you that. I I I hope in a week or two, we go to a new all time high and we say, okay, this is done.

[00:37:50] McIntosh:

And the thing is, if we do, nobody will ever talk about this again. Correct. Yeah. And it’s happened more than once, this type thing. And that’s part of what makes me leery about it. This stuff comes up on Bitcoin Twitter specifically every so often. Oh, you know, because some random person guessed some random, you know, it’s just like, well, I don’t know. And then everybody jumps on it. We will see. Because the ETF people, the business people like Michael Saylor, the governments, they’re not changing their buying habits based on this chart or these numbers. I promise you that. Mhmm. So that’s why I say at some point, there has to be a lot of, the manipulation just won’t be if that’s what’s going on, then it it will not work. You they will not be able to. It will be unstoppable.

Right?

[00:38:55] Kenshin:

Does that make sense? Yeah. I wanna make sure okay. Yeah. And I can say that if you’re curious about what we’re talking about about this charter, I posted it, I think, today or yesterday on Nostr.

[00:39:07] McIntosh:

Or I It should be on Nostr, people. I reposted it. So it’s it’s it’s there. It’s our weekly Nostr show. They do not pay us any money. That would be funny. Yeah. Paid by nostril. Anyways

[00:39:20] Kenshin:

I I cannot find this. I’m trying to to Google this.

[00:39:25] McIntosh:

Is there anything else we we we’re forty something minutes in. We probably need to think about. Not on this chart.

[00:39:32] Kenshin:

Take a look at it, for yourself and then

[00:39:36] McIntosh:

So I guess in summary, this is an interesting chart.

This is not financial advice, and we’re not suggesting that you do anything any different, but it is something that we can look at. I am gonna do the research personally. I hope I can get data that’s on a daily basis back that far. That may be the problem. And we’ll but we’ll see. And we may briefly discuss this again next week because if I see any variance in it, then it it knocks the whole thing off. I mean, it does. Yeah. And we’ll see a week from now. I mean, I will say this. So far, October 22 as we record so called Rocktober, October, whatever, has been a bust. I mean, yes, we I well, October 6, we hit an all time high, but it’s been just blah since.

And we may actually exit this month lower than we entered it, which would be crazy.

[00:40:37] Kenshin:

Yeah. Yeah. It’s crazy. October.

[00:40:40] McIntosh:

October, October. I don’t know. It’s whatever. Alright. Alright. What do we got next, sir? Sorry. Falling down on my job. What job do I have again? Well, supporters. Supporters. Why don’t you grab that one?

[00:41:00] Kenshin:

We got the thousand sides from Kano or Kano. Mhmm. And he says, thank you for your time and talent. Thank you, sir. Appreciate that. Thank you for listening.

[00:41:11] McIntosh:

It’s always good to hear from our listeners.

[00:41:14] Kenshin:

Yeah. And we got, some good feedback on Nostra as well.

[00:41:18] McIntosh:

At least comments on the on the last episode. Do you have any you wanna read or do we have time?

[00:41:24] Kenshin:

Oh, I don’t have,

[00:41:26] McIntosh:

them on. Okay. Maybe we’ll do that next week. I don’t know. I I don’t know if it’d be worth it, but we can think about it. Alright? News and notes. You just wanna go and take these? I’ve been talking a lot. Do you wanna take these, Bozan? Yeah. Sure. Just one.

[00:41:41] Kenshin:

So there was, another news on, we talked about last time or the time before about Switzerland having, a bill, a, a bill, a bill, amendment, to change their surveillance surveillance laws. Right. And we have again who was that was, part of the legal team from Proton, in Octo on October 10 in Geneva. Okay. There there was a forum called war peace and neutrality forum.

So, so they reiterated from Proton that they disapprove of that, that amendment to the law which hasn’t passed yet, which is good. But still, they they mentioned it again that they they would leave Switzerland. It’s really not good for

[00:42:40] McIntosh:

the Minimum, they’re forced to leave Switzerland. Yeah. I mean Yeah. I don’t know where they’re going, but I think we’ve talked about they had a couple options. But, yeah, it would be a a very expensive thing for them, and I’m sure they wanna stay there. I mean, it’s a nice place. I would love to go there. Yeah. Alright.

[00:42:59] Kenshin:

So that was that. So nothing new there, but it’s good to keep track of of Yes. If something happens. And it’s good to see that Proton is taking this seriously and keeps the pressure on. Okay. Right. Next, we have I

[00:43:17] McIntosh:

close my tabs now. I’ll go ahead and get the next one real quick. This was, Bitcoin magazine announced that the Russian Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Russia have agreed to legalize payments in crypto for foreign trade. So I believe they’ve already been doing this, but that’s just me speculating and ruminating as they would say. So I thought that was very interesting. That would lay the groundwork for the BRICS nations, for example, to be using crypto, for their trade, which I believe is a step that certainly will take place if not soon in the well, I believe in the very near future.

[00:44:00] Kenshin:

Yep. Okay. Then we have, I put a note from Marty Bent just to we we’ve been talking about bear markets. Right? So it’s just to end on a more positive note. And we’ve been talking about gold, how it’s been going up a lot. So gold in the last five years has gone up 129%, which is not bad. At the same time, time periods, in the last five years, Bitcoin has gone up 839 percent. So we might not be doing as good as gold in the last couple of months, but the last five years, if you zoom out, we’re doing great. Right. And so it’s nothing to

[00:44:50] McIntosh:

Yeah. Gold and silver have both taken off.

Silver, like I said, is well, I didn’t actually say this. It has broken its all time high officially in the last couple weeks, if I’m not mistaken. It may have happened before we left. I’m pretty sure it did. So, seems like about two weeks ago. And it’s sitting comfortably above that level at this point and not showing any signs of going below it. And I say that, and now I’m gonna double check and probably tell you differently. But, you know, well, let’s see here. Yeah. Actually, it is it’s at 4842, so it’s below that all time high or that previous high.

But yeah. I mean, if they keep printing money, if they keep saying stupid things, those assets, which are hard assets, are gonna keep going up.

[00:45:43] Kenshin:

Yep.

[00:45:44] McIntosh:

You you may start hearing the words 16,000, $20,000 gold coming out of my mouth soon. I mean, I at some point, it’s gonna get out of control and peep everybody’s just gonna jump on it.

[00:45:56] Kenshin:

Wait. I lost you for a second there.

[00:46:00] McIntosh:

Well, it’s all recorded.

[00:46:02] Kenshin:

Yeah.

[00:46:03] McIntosh:

That’s fine. I said something about how, you know, there’s gonna be a point where gold reaches where basically people jump on the bandwagon. Right? The average person Yeah. Isn’t even thinking about gold right now. They may not even know the price of gold. You know? Yeah. We’re in a somewhat of an echo chamber about it. But, if Gold Cross is, say, $10,000, you’re gonna see people lined up buying gold, and then it’s just you know?

[00:46:30] Kenshin:

Yeah. Yeah. Well, another news that I didn’t put it there, but it’s on Marty Bent’s Okay. Note as well. It’s about Square.

[00:46:40] McIntosh:

The company Square. Yes. We should never talk about this. Mhmm.

[00:46:45] Kenshin:

Yeah. So they opened up in their system that, the merchants can can accept Bitcoin. Right. And it’s quite cool because they don’t need to change anything. You as a customer can pay with Bitcoin and they can receive automatically dollars from their end. So it’s quite cool and automatically 4,000,000 merchants

[00:47:06] McIntosh:

across United States can act can now receive And that’s a lot of small business, ladies and gentlemen. And I think that’s a very important event.

It’s funny because we’ve used a lot of Square over the last few weeks, with our travels. Yeah. And I believe and please correct me if I’m wrong. I can pay with Bitcoin. They can receive dollars?

[00:47:31] Kenshin:

Yeah. Exactly. Right. It’s automatic. They don’t have to do anything. Can receive Bitcoin

[00:47:35] McIntosh:

or Yeah. Some percentage of it, probably, which is, I would hope, what most of them would do. They have to keep their cash. But, you know, 10% off the top going over to the side, they’re kinda DCA ing. Be pretty sweet. Just saying. Alright. Great. And I I think they use lightning because it’s it’s as fast as lightning. Yeah. They have to be. There’s no way that would work on the main net.

[00:47:59] Kenshin:

No. So that was cool.

[00:48:02] McIntosh:

Alright. Last, item software updates. We’ve got Cashew on signal. Please cover this one because I did not even know about this until you told me. I missed this one. It happened while I was on vacation.

[00:48:15] Kenshin:

Yeah. This is a very cool proof of concept. It’s not implemented on on Signal. We talk about the messaging app Signal. And Calle, the developer behind CashJu, the eCash system. He made a proof of concept integrating CashJu mince and CashJu transactions within signal. So signal already had, a cash payment or their own e e money or I did not call that.

Oh, you didn’t? Yeah. I used it, to test with my brothers. It’s just for fun to see how it works. But you have this functionality and signal that you can’t send payment. It’s m o b. Okay. I have, like, sense of m o b. So it’s not much. So essentially, he used that functionality. So when you have a message and you want to share something with someone and you press the plus button, you have the choice for payment. Mhmm. So when you press that, he he changed the the the, the functionality to use e cache, Casio and could send us easily as a message to send Casio to each other.

So that’s quite cool. And, the website that he made is called I’m sorry. I I cannot find all my tabs today. He’s so he made a website called bitcoinforsignal.org. So one word bitcoinforsignal.org. Okay. And there you get all the details. It’s a proof of concept again. So it’s not, official by signal. I don’t think. So it’s just he’s looking to get some attention and support and, yeah, hopefully do some something with signal to to do it for real. But his, his example works and it looks good and it it makes sense. I mean, having, cash you on on signal would be amazing.

I would definitely use it.

[00:50:28] McIntosh:

Okay. Very cool. Yeah. That whole e cash project is just it has amazed me how quickly it has evolved. It is a level of innovation that I don’t think I’ve ever seen anywhere. I don’t know. Very cold, though. Yeah. Alright. Yeah. Alright. As we started recording, we had a Bitcoin price of $1.00 $7.06 40 in US dollars. And what do we have in euros, sir?

[00:51:02] Kenshin:

€92,700.

[00:51:04] McIntosh:

So below 100 again. We gotta come up with a fun name for euros. I got plenty of names for

[00:51:11] Kenshin:

dollars. Yeah.

[00:51:12] McIntosh:

Okay. Greenbacks. Anyway Right. And then the price last October 22 was 67,380.

So we are up 59.75%. Mhmm. Alright. And what are we doing for gold?

[00:51:30] Kenshin:

So market cap for gold is $28,300,000,000,000. Mhmm. And Bitcoin’s market cap is 2,100,000,000,000.0, which brings us to 7.6% of gold’s market cap.

[00:51:45] McIntosh:

Hey, Bitcoin. Wake up. Come on. Some

[00:51:50] Kenshin:

someone could say that’s a sign of a bear market starting.

[00:51:56] McIntosh:

I don’t need your negativity, sir. Alright. Oh, man. I’m gonna do that research, man. I may I may put in a a short. Yeah. I Especially if it bumps up again. That is not financial advice, and I have no idea where I would even find the money to do that. Anyways

[00:52:19] Kenshin:

By the way, I I think I found the original thread. I put

[00:52:23] McIntosh:

That notes. Let’s do that. The notes. Yeah. And we’re gonna we are going to time cap it next week, but we’re gonna discuss this again just briefly.

I want some verification. I do. I’m just being an obstinate old man. It’s a role I feel well. Fees and impol, we got one sat per vbyte. Actually, you can do less than that. And 30,000 unprocessed transactions, about 90 megabytes. So a little slow, a little low for the SaaS per v byte. And do we have anything off the dashboard? We we’re gonna start including this Clark Moody dashboard. I thought this was pretty cool.

[00:53:04] Kenshin:

Yeah. We’re we’re looking at the close. Not. Yeah.

[00:53:08] McIntosh:

Yeah. Let’s talk about that. So this week I don’t know exactly when the v 30 came out. It wasn’t this week, but, recently it was last week. Yeah. The big controversial version 30 of knots came oh, excuse me, of core came out.

And so one of the things this dashboard tracks is, which now I don’t see it, but I should,

[00:53:31] Kenshin:

knots. Why okay. There it is. It it tries the

[00:53:35] McIntosh:

The percentages. So, basically, not just sitting right where it’s been for a few weeks, about 21%. Right? And core, on the other hand, the new core 30 node is at a whopping 2.68%. So I don’t know in total what core is. It doesn’t look like it’s changed, which most likely means that these, v thirties are simply upgrades, which to me, how could I put this tactfully? It seems like status quo, and I hope after all the the the talk over the last months that maybe this does show the developers that people actually care about this.

And I and frankly, not in a good way for them. Does that make sense? I’m not sure that did. But, I’m happy running my notes. We can disagree about that if you wish, and that’s fine. But node runners are important, and I would encourage you regardless to run a node.

[00:54:49] Kenshin:

Yeah. The, I I told you last week, I the week before, I I tried this new node system, Nirvati.

[00:55:00] McIntosh:

Oh, yes. Yes.

[00:55:01] Kenshin:

Unfortunately, for me, notes didn’t work there. But, thankfully, when I installed, I installed core version 29. So Yes.

[00:55:11] McIntosh:

At least from my experimentation. To me, some people are saying that that’s just what you should do. That is not a long term solution. At some point, you will be forced off of that, essentially, and, you won’t get support.

So I you know, it’s it’s stop gap.

[00:55:32] Kenshin:

Is there plans for them to include not support, or is that just not of interest to them? No. It’s supported, and the developer said it should be working. But for me, it it wouldn’t load the blockchain past the first 17 gigabytes. It was just getting stuck there. I don’t know why. It’s interesting. Yeah. He said he will look into it. Okay. Cool. So hopefully there is some bug and he can fix.

[00:55:59] McIntosh:

Alright. Very cool. That’s that’s good. Glad to hear that. Okay. Let’s wrap this up. Yep. We are a value for value podcast supporting podcasting two point o. No ads. No sponsorships.

Just honest Bitcoin content. You can go to podcastapps.com and grab one of the different Bitcoin, not Bitcoin, the podcast apps. There’s a lot there. I would suggest at this point, Fountain, just because it it works. There’s a lot of changes going on in podcasting two point o right now. But if you want specifically to support this show, you can grab fountain. You can load up with some money from strike, and you can use that to support the show. Okay? If you like the content, most of all, I would just love it if you tell your friends about the podcast. That is the best way for us to grow.

By the way, this week’s music is The Jetsons, not The Jetson as I have it typed. The Jetsons by Joe Martin. I love Joe Martin. He’s been around for quite a while. He’s great value for value musician. And any boost or streaming of sats during that song will go straight to Joe Martin.

[00:57:15] Kenshin:

Cool. So thanks for being here. We hope this has been helpful, and and we would like to hear from you on Nostril this weekend. Find all our contact info at satoshis.plebs.com. Stay humble. DCA those sites, and have a great weekend.

[00:57:30] McIntosh:

We’ll talk to you all soon.

[00:57:33] Kenshin:

Bye bye.