WEBVTT

NOTE
Transcription provided by Podhome.fm
Created: 1/15/2024 6:49:15 AM
Duration: 3880.411
Channels: 1

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McIntosh: Hey, Pleb Nation. Today is January 1st, and this is episode 149

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of Satoshi's

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Plebs.

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I'm your host, McIntosh, and today's episode will be

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a year in review plus what is coming in 2024.

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Alright.

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Happy

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New Year.

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I hope everyone has had a great holiday.

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I did, of course, take some time off. This will be the 1st episode in 1 month.

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And as I posted somewhere, I think on Twitter, I did miss it, to be honest.

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I did.

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I've been doing this for two and a half years at this point,

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for a good portion of that time twice a week.

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And you get in this rhythm, and then it's like, oh, wait. The rhythm's gone. But

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I would say that I spent a bunch of time resting and,

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You know,

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reenergizing.

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But the reality is is that,

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I spent a bunch of time building,

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and we'll be discussing that,

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in a few minutes,

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about what I've been doing for the last month. Because even though I wasn't recording, I spent a good bit of time building

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infrastructure

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For Satoshi's Plebs and

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laying things out, trying to figure out what I was gonna change, and not everything's in place.

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For example, I just played the music,

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same music as I've been playing for a long time. That's going to change. I have not Found new music yet. I was looking for value for value music that I could,

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include in the splits,

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and

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I haven't been able to do that yet, so I spent about an hour kind of poking around. I haven't really found anything. I don't know if I've ever told you all this.

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I may have, but,

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I am very eclectic, if you wanna call it that, in my musical taste. I can basically listen to anything,

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outside of rap and

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opera. I don't like opera. I can even listen to classical music to an extent.

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Regardless, I haven't found anything yet.

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I hope before the next episode that that is taken care of.

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But it is New Year's Eve. It's 1:20

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in the afternoon as I record. I will post this tomorrow morning,

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New Year's Day

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on our regular schedule, Monday mornings.

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But I did wanna take a time to,

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I did wanna kinda take This episode and kind of review, I'm not really gonna go over the news of the last month. There's been a bit. I will touch on it.

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A lot of, you know, fluff, whatever.

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But,

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I did wanna go over kind of the year because it's it's been a long year for a lot of us, and

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It's always good to look back and kinda see where we came from. Some of this is,

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podcast specific for for this podcast. Some of it is,

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After we get done with that, we'll turn more towards kind of the Bitcoin world.

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And, so we'll just jump right on into that. So for this year, I pulled up some statistics.

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I recorded 57 episodes, so

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that's a little more than 1 per week.

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I did not record,

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2 episodes

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a week all year long. Of course, I took the month of December off, so,

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I would like to see that be a little more towards a 100

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than 57

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next year,

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but

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Overall, I think pretty good.

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One of the things that they said to build

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to build a solid listenership for your podcast is, of course, to be regular, and

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Tried, frankly, very hard to do that. I've not always been successful.

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Sometimes, especially on the Thursday episodes,

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work will interfere.

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But,

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we do the best we can,

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and we're gonna continue to try and improve on that. So 57 episodes.

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Our total boost in stream. So, of course, we're a value for value podcast. I strongly support what's going on with the podcasting 2 point o movement, if you wanna call it that.

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We kind of congregate over at the Mastodon

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podcast index dot social

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instance for our Interactions,

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the two kind of co leaders of that, Adam Curry, Dave.

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I actually don't know Dave's Last name offhand. I should. But, anyways, they host the podcast. They put it out every week,

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and it's about developments

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In the podcasting world, we are incorporating

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a huge number of changes

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that are, In my opinion,

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very much improving podcast, making it better things like transcripts,

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chapters,

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the ability to stream payments to a podcast,

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The ability to send boost and messages,

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this type thing. We're talking about some very interesting things about,

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Cross app comments right now. Probably, it sounds like they're steering towards using the activity pub

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Protocol to to

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basically

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allow for that between the applications. It sounds like a a really brilliant

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solution.

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That work is ongoing, so you can jump into that at new podcast apps.com

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if you would like and get a podcast two point o app.

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Like I mentioned, there's the podcast index dot social mastodon

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instance. You're welcome to join in there.

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And

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a lot of that Content is about podcasting.

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Not all of it, of course, because people are free to post whatever they want,

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but there's a lot of information there.

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So would love to see some of the listeners on there, interact with them. Let me know if you,

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jump on there. I'm McIntosh at podcastindex.social

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on there. So this year, we had a total boost in streams, and I did not break it down. Both are equally important. I do not know,

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Honestly, what the ratio is because

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I'm just using the data that's given to me by Satoshis stream.

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And that was

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343,408

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sats, and that's after

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basically, they take 10% of that. So it would actually be more like 370 if I'm not mistaken, 375,

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something like that. That converts to about $145.15

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at the current rate.

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I have not touched that money. It's still sitting in there. And to be honest, I don't really intend to. I'm a let it build up. I will eventually be putting it on a lightning node.

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In fact, I hope to do that very soon in the next month or so

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and use that as liquidity,

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to start routing to be able to accept my own payments so that I don't have to use to to stream.

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Not that they're a bad service,

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but I wanna do it myself. I'm kind of a DIY guy,

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and,

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I like doing it myself. Plus, that'll save me about 10%.

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So always good for a or maybe it's 1%.

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Let's see.

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I don't know. I think it's 1%, actually.

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So my calculation I just did was all off. So I apologize, but I think you get the idea.

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So

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57 episodes. What else did I do this year specific about this podcast? I'm not gonna talk about the topics we covered.

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I have a page, by the way.

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If you go to satoshis-pebs.com,

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,

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which is our new website,

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there's a link to it. It's called, like, episode library. It's right on the top. You can click on that, and then it is actually current right now.

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Episodes 1 through 148.

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Back when we were,

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generation wealth through cryptocurrency

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and then,

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Generation Bitcoin.

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All of those episodes are listed there with the main topic.

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Feel free to browse through that. You can actually,

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Well, just feel free to browse. You can take a look at that. Those episodes are all still available

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in the same feed, by the way.

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So what did I do? I moved the podcast from Captivate, which is a podcast host,

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to Castapod,

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so I am now Self hosting it. I just did that.

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I started work on it about a month and a half. I actually made the flip about

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2 days ago maybe. I kinda waited till there was the the least amount of traffic in case there was any issues, which there were not. It was a very easy process. Castapod itself, this is my 2nd podcast setting it up on Castapod. I

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Basically, edited another podcast,

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that

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my family was involved in,

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for a couple of years.

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There was some overlap there, but, you know, couple years before this.

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And so we had already moved that one. I kinda learned the ropes on that. Castapod,

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is some it's PHP

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based software,

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and it's self hosting.

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So my files sit there,

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all the content sits there,

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everything. And once you kind of learn a few things, it's It's the I will say this. Well, it was not perfect. However,

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there was a very good Discord group,

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A very active Discord group that was very helpful

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sorting through some issues. So I would encourage people,

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If you're hosting a podcast or if you have your podcast in, there's 2 reasons to do this. 1, money. So I Self host on Hetz Hetzner. It's a German company, actually.

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They do VPS,

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virtual private servers.

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Very nice company. I've had zero issues with them. I actually host my servers

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in Germany, and the reasons why I do that, that is the only place that they have,

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ARM chipset servers. So rather than Intel or AMD, they're actually, ARM chips,

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which I really like. They're a little cheaper. They're, more power efficient,

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but they only host those in Germany. You can if you're in the United States, you can use servers here in the United States that are

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Intel or, AMD chip servers.

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If you don't know what I'm talking about, don't worry about it,

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but whatever.

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I'm spending

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$3 a month now on the server that runs those, and I could have multiple

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podcast. In fact,

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so

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Very, very economical. I was paying $15 a month at Captivate. I have no problem with Captivate, by the way, other than the fact that they are Slow to put on podcasting 2 point o tags,

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but their service was always good, but it's $15 a month. So now I just save myself $12 a month

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and Castapod

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adds tags very, very frequently.

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Alright. So anyways, we moved from Captivate to Castapod.

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I'm now self hosting that. I set up a new website. I already mentioned it. Satoshisplebs.com. satoshis-plebs.com

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,

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of course, it looks very much like my old site. It will probably change over the next few months. I set Up a Bitcoin note, this is something I would encourage anyone to do.

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Just just set up a Bitcoin node. Watch the transactions going through it.

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It's fascinating, and there are things that you can do with that. In this case, this is more for just testing and it's just gonna sit out there.

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I'll get to that in just a minute,

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but there you go. We've got a note set up. I set up hedge doc for note taking. I'm actually using that right now. This is something

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When I lost my Umbrel

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when was that back in November?

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I had been using one of the

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programs that,

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Umbral supplies and, trillium. That was the name of the program, and it worked fine.

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But I

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When I moved to Hetzner for all of my different services, and I counted it up. I have, like, a dozen things up there right now. Kinda crazy.

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But,

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anyways, I decided to test out Hedgehog, and I've been pretty pleased with it. It's an online note taking service.

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I could actually make these notes public,

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so I could send anybody

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to the website

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and they could see it, or private. So most of my notes I think I have 1 public note. It's some links, and I'll add more links to there, and I'll eventually

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Make that available either directly on Hedgehog or on the Satoshi Plebs website,

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that kind of thing. It's,

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can be done in markdown, which I like. It's a,

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markup language,

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like XML.

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It's a version of that.

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So very flexible. Anyways,

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what else? Set up a,

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it's an SMP server. So it's called it's basically Simple X. So if you've ever heard a Simple X, it's a

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it's a secure way of communicating.

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Now my initial thought with this, and it's open source. They make everything available,

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which is very important to me for something like this. They make everything available as code up on GitHub or GitLab. I'm not sure which. But I set up a server as a test kit, as a test bed, and then I ended up Setting it up for my own use. So my family will actually use this to communicate ultimately between each other

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rather than using, say, Facebook Messenger. We You may say Macintosh, you're being paranoid. Maybe I am.

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But, I would rather control this myself. Plus, it is end to end encrypted.

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There's a lot of really nice things about simplex, and I really intended to do this as a chatroom

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For

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Satoshi's Plebs,

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unfortunately,

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one thing it doesn't do very well, there's two issues. It's a little laggy

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because of the encryption.

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And it doesn't really handle, like, community,

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like, group things. There is

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You can,

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but, basically, they say if you get above about 50 people, which maybe I don't ever reach, but

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In the chat room at one time,

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it kind of implodes. So I wanted to steer away from that. I ended up going, with an IRC server setup,

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which I am building now.

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It's not quite done yet.

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Basically, on the suggestion of some people over at podcasting 2.0 that I was talking about earlier.

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So that's not done yet, but when that is done, it's about 75% done probably.

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When that's done, then that will actually be available for the plebs,

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to use as kind of a chat room. And one of the big reasons we'll do that is because during 2024,

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Not to jump ahead, but I do wanna start doing a live stream.

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My plan is for Sunday nights, and

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This will not be happening until I'm ready. So it may be several months or more, so don't

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get too excited. But on Sunday nights at 6 o'clock, Thursdays will be reserved for

232
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interviews that I have with people, that kind of thing. That will not be at a fixed time.

233
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Alright. So,

234
00:15:45.070 --> 00:15:50.930
we'll do live on Sunday night and then Monday morning at 7 o'clock. As always, they will come out.

235
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But I wanted to have a chat room for that. That's where we were going with all that. That's where the IRC comes in. So I'm almost done with that. Set up activity pub for Satoshi's Plebs site. So

236
00:16:02.870 --> 00:16:08.089
there was a new plugin that came out, I think, in September for WordPress, which is what I use for

237
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Satoshi's Plebs just because I've done WordPress forever,

238
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and it's easy.

239
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But it will allow me to federate my post,

240
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which I'm pretty pumped about. So, essentially, it will look like I have a mastodon instance. And when I post on the website, which I will We'll be planning to do more during 2024.

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That will go right into the feed. And then if you're into Mastodon,

242
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you can subscribe to that And see those as they get published.

243
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What else did we do? Tested out the seed signer hardware wallet. I am convinced at this point that seed signer is the best hardware

244
00:16:48.025 --> 00:16:49.325
wallet that's out there.

245
00:16:49.705 --> 00:16:51.885
Of course, I've had seed signer on the program.

246
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When he was on the program, I had not picked up 1 yet. I had already, of course, been interested in it at that point. I have thoroughly tested it out. I'm very happy with it. My only complaint, and I do intend to put this on their Discord, and it's not really something that's fixable.

247
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One thing I don't really talk about, I have a a fair amount of issues

248
00:17:14.900 --> 00:17:15.960
with my eyes.

249
00:17:16.740 --> 00:17:18.360
I've worn glasses forever,

250
00:17:18.965 --> 00:17:22.825
and I actually found out not too long ago I have cataracts.

251
00:17:23.445 --> 00:17:28.105
Very early stage, but I have eye issues is really what it amounts to.

252
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And the screen on the seed signer is very, very tiny, and that's partially what helps keep the cost down.

253
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But it's also very hard for me to kinda work around. The screen is not terrible.

254
00:17:43.534 --> 00:17:44.835
I wouldn't rather have

255
00:17:45.190 --> 00:17:49.530
Easily, I don't know, double, triple, quadruple the size of what it is.

256
00:17:49.990 --> 00:17:50.490
But

257
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the QR code thing that you fill out paper,

258
00:17:54.965 --> 00:17:55.784
Stock paper.

259
00:17:56.965 --> 00:17:58.664
Extremely difficult for me.

260
00:17:59.365 --> 00:18:03.225
I was able to do it the second time I did it. The first time, it did not work at all.

261
00:18:04.510 --> 00:18:06.529
It's just the dots are so small.

262
00:18:06.909 --> 00:18:08.529
It's just I don't know.

263
00:18:10.350 --> 00:18:11.649
Not really a complaint.

264
00:18:12.270 --> 00:18:13.905
It's just the reality.

265
00:18:15.165 --> 00:18:17.825
Maybe not ideal for for people who have

266
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vision issues, but

267
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Basically, any of I mean, the ledger one's even smaller, to be honest. I've told you all in the past. I have ledger, which I do,

268
00:18:27.795 --> 00:18:31.735
which I will be moving off of on the seed center, but, you know,

269
00:18:32.675 --> 00:18:34.055
that screen's even smaller.

270
00:18:34.490 --> 00:18:37.790
So there you go. That's literally my only complaint.

271
00:18:38.490 --> 00:18:44.355
So good good job testing that out. I enjoyed it, learned a bit, all that kind of stuff.

272
00:18:44.655 --> 00:18:45.875
And then the last thing,

273
00:18:47.295 --> 00:18:51.715
a couple of weeks ago, like, the middle of the month, I did order a new computer.

274
00:18:52.590 --> 00:18:57.010
McIntosh: I've been looking into this for a long time. I've I've had the one picked out

275
00:18:57.710 --> 00:18:59.490
since middle of the year.

276
00:19:01.375 --> 00:19:06.435
McIntosh: And, essentially, I managed to pull together the money to to get it ordered. It's a Beelink

277
00:19:07.055 --> 00:19:08.915
GTR 7 Pro.

278
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So what that means is I'll be moving from a Mac mini,

279
00:19:14.370 --> 00:19:15.990
that's about 10 years old

280
00:19:16.325 --> 00:19:20.024
to a computer that'll hold up to 64 gigs. It'll come with 32,

281
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and

282
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I think it's four cores.

283
00:19:24.600 --> 00:19:28.140
It's an AMD chip. I think it's like sixteen

284
00:19:30.360 --> 00:19:32.059
or maybe it's sixteen cores.

285
00:19:32.934 --> 00:19:37.195
I'm not quite sure, but it's a lot bigger than this one.

286
00:19:37.815 --> 00:19:40.475
And I think a terabyte or maybe two terabytes

287
00:19:40.855 --> 00:19:43.250
of hard drive. It's supposed to be here

288
00:19:43.550 --> 00:19:44.210
the fourth,

289
00:19:44.750 --> 00:19:50.195
which is, like, next Thursday. The reality is it hasn't shipped according to their Thing,

290
00:19:50.575 --> 00:19:56.034
I don't think it's gonna make it by then, but I'm hoping for it very soon. I will be setting NextOS

291
00:19:56.700 --> 00:20:02.080
Up on it is my plan. I've played around with that a little bit. It's a Linux distribution that

292
00:20:02.780 --> 00:20:03.760
it's pretty cool,

293
00:20:04.185 --> 00:20:15.290
and I'm looking forward to using it. So if I can't get that to work, which I'm not 100% sure that I'll be able to do everything I need to do on it, then I'll use Ubuntu, which is another Linux distribution

294
00:20:16.150 --> 00:20:19.450
that I've probably been using for 10 years or more.

295
00:20:20.025 --> 00:20:22.205
So what are we gonna do in 2024?

296
00:20:22.505 --> 00:20:25.645
Let me run through this list really quick.

297
00:20:26.919 --> 00:20:32.539
Some of these are goals. I'll probably move the goals. I think some of these are set into stone at this point.

298
00:20:34.415 --> 00:20:43.075
I do wanna install an Electrum server. This is not something I've talked about. Maybe I'll I should take an episode to talk about this. I'll probably do it after I do

299
00:20:43.440 --> 00:20:46.420
which will be basically as soon as I get my computer.

300
00:20:48 --> 00:20:59.924
Electrum is basically a modified form of a Bitcoin node, and it interacts with that Bitcoin node, you have to have both. So I'm gonna set up a full Bitcoin node on my new computer. I'm gonna set up Electrum.

301
00:21:00.280 --> 00:21:06.460
I'll also set up reaper, which is what I use for the audio stuff, and then use that

302
00:21:07 --> 00:21:07.660
to handle,

303
00:21:08.765 --> 00:21:10.465
essentially, my seed signer wallet.

304
00:21:11.325 --> 00:21:15.745
So I'll talk about all that after I get it set up, but that's certainly one goal.

305
00:21:16.580 --> 00:21:22.440
I'm going to go to the Bitcoin conference in Nashville that is in July 25 to 27.

306
00:21:24.095 --> 00:21:34.700
Nashville is in the southeastern part of the United States. It's a very nice city, actually. I've spent a little bit of time there. I'm looking forward to that. What I'm really looking forward to is meeting some of

307
00:21:35.080 --> 00:21:39.020
my my friends, some of the people that I've interviewed, some of the people like

308
00:21:39.795 --> 00:21:42.935
Mere Mortals and hopefully some of the listeners as well.

309
00:21:43.555 --> 00:21:48.775
Kyrin, better go now. I know you're not sure if you're going, but you need to go, buddy.

310
00:21:50.290 --> 00:21:50.790
Anyways,

311
00:21:51.890 --> 00:21:59.245
really looking forward to that. I will set up a live stream this year. I don't know exact or next year. This year, by the time you get this, I

312
00:21:59.625 --> 00:22:03.005
don't know exactly when, like I said, but hopefully, maybe Q1.

313
00:22:03.865 --> 00:22:14.720
I'm also gonna be providing a video version of podcast. And this is something I've gone back and forth on, but I'm pretty solid at this point. Now that probably will be second half. It would definitely be

314
00:22:15.154 --> 00:22:18.774
After setting up the livestream, I wanna get that going first.

315
00:22:19.554 --> 00:22:23.894
Why do you say that, why a video podcast? Because I like them, frankly.

316
00:22:24.440 --> 00:22:33.455
A lot of people don't, but I do think there's benefit to that for things like this Electrum server that I was just talking about. It would be Very helpful

317
00:22:33.914 --> 00:22:35.774
to show that to

318
00:22:36.394 --> 00:22:37.934
the listeners, to the viewers, kind of how that works rather than just talking about it.

319
00:22:39.274 --> 00:22:42.300
McIntosh: kind of how that works rather than just talking about it.

320
00:22:43.020 --> 00:22:51.280
McIntosh: That would be an excellent example right there. I'm gonna host the video up on YouTube, and you may say, gosh, Macintosh, I can't believe you just said that.

321
00:22:51.815 --> 00:23:02.500
But for one thing, there won't be any ads. I'm not looking to monetize it on there because I do believe in value for value rather than Shoving ads in your face like what they do on YouTube,

322
00:23:03.280 --> 00:23:04.740
but it's free.

323
00:23:05.440 --> 00:23:05.940
And

324
00:23:06.394 --> 00:23:11.615
With the podcasting 2 point o spec, you can literally just point to that video,

325
00:23:12.475 --> 00:23:12.975
and

326
00:23:13.355 --> 00:23:14.014
it will

327
00:23:14.315 --> 00:23:15.054
show up

328
00:23:15.740 --> 00:23:16.559
as a

329
00:23:18.220 --> 00:23:27.655
as a source. Now I will also be keeping a set of my video. I don't trust They could take me down for any reason, and I will not self censor

330
00:23:28.035 --> 00:23:29.975
just to keep on video on YouTube.

331
00:23:30.960 --> 00:23:37.460
So at some point, when I say something that they don't believe in and they take me down, well, then I'll just point to a new source,

332
00:23:37.840 --> 00:23:39.860
which would be my own host. And

333
00:23:40.394 --> 00:23:42.735
The thing is that's going to cost money,

334
00:23:43.195 --> 00:23:45.855
so I don't wanna jump right into that

335
00:23:46.394 --> 00:23:49.855
at this point because we're not making a whole lot. So

336
00:23:50.270 --> 00:23:52.690
We're not making enough to cover that is a reality,

337
00:23:53.070 --> 00:23:55.650
and it would immediately start coming out of my pocket.

338
00:23:56.990 --> 00:23:58.210
I have two goals,

339
00:23:59.185 --> 00:24:06.725
in terms of metrics for the podcast, I want to quadruple my listenership. I will tell y'all right now, I'm at around 1800 downloads

340
00:24:07.185 --> 00:24:07.845
a month.

341
00:24:08.730 --> 00:24:11.390
I will be able to keep better track of that with castapod

342
00:24:12.010 --> 00:24:13.310
than I did with Captivate,

343
00:24:13.610 --> 00:24:23.275
but that's roughly what I was doing for the last four or five months. It's slowly growing. Although, of course, in December, I took a nose dive. I only had 500 downloads in December,

344
00:24:23.975 --> 00:24:25.595
but, but that's okay.

345
00:24:26.055 --> 00:24:27.275
There was no content.

346
00:24:28.940 --> 00:24:31.500
So I wanna quadruple that. So we're looking at,

347
00:24:33.180 --> 00:24:45.385
you know, roughly 8,000 downloads a month or so. I would love to do more. I think that's very realistic, especially as we come into this bull market, which is cranking up. I haven't even talked about Bitcoin

348
00:24:45.960 --> 00:24:54.540
In terms of that, maybe I should do that before we roll into everything else. I will. Actually, I've got it right there on my notes. I firmly believe that 2024,

349
00:24:55.304 --> 00:24:59.644
Bitcoin will be moving up, not down. So, anyways, that's going to

350
00:25:00.904 --> 00:25:01.725
most likely

351
00:25:02.345 --> 00:25:07.330
be steering people our way. I've also decided to go ahead and do another promotional with Fountain

352
00:25:07.790 --> 00:25:12.445
just to expose more people to the podcast. So I've already talked to Oscar

353
00:25:12.825 --> 00:25:15.725
about that, and I'm planning on do that very early,

354
00:25:16.904 --> 00:25:17.804
probably January

355
00:25:18.424 --> 00:25:19.725
of of 2024.

356
00:25:20.870 --> 00:25:28.330
And that should help. We saw that last time we, of course, had a huge spike when we did it, but then more people a number of people stayed around after

357
00:25:28.995 --> 00:25:29.495
McIntosh: after

358
00:25:30.195 --> 00:25:33.815
McIntosh: the promotion that I did a long time ago now at this point.

359
00:25:34.435 --> 00:25:38.200
And then the other thing is, and I've mentioned this as a goal in the past,

360
00:25:39.320 --> 00:25:41.659
but for 2024, I really do want to

361
00:25:42.440 --> 00:25:43.980
have a goal of about 200,000

362
00:25:44.679 --> 00:25:51.225
sats per month of support. That's about $50. It's probably a little more now, but it's about $50 a month.

363
00:25:52.165 --> 00:25:54.900
That's 50,000 sats a week. That's 25,000

364
00:25:55.280 --> 00:25:57.860
McIntosh: sats an episode if I'm doing two episodes a

365
00:25:58.640 --> 00:26:01.620
week. And that is support that's coming from the listeners

366
00:26:02.034 --> 00:26:04.855
with value for value as we talk about. So

367
00:26:05.394 --> 00:26:15.679
McIntosh: what that means is that essentially stuff that I'm doing out of pocket, I don't so much have to worry about that anymore if I choose to pull that money out. Now I told you I'm putting it into

368
00:26:15.980 --> 00:26:17.840
liquidity for a lightning note.

369
00:26:18.835 --> 00:26:20.855
But if I'm making, you know, 200,000

370
00:26:21.155 --> 00:26:27.255
sats a month, I will probably start pulling out some of that. And there's other things now that I've got my computer on the way.

371
00:26:28.450 --> 00:26:31.110
Of course, I want a new microphone. Oh, you know?

372
00:26:31.410 --> 00:26:36.735
Actually, my my next 2 big things would be, I need to get a mixer board. I think I need to do that

373
00:26:38.735 --> 00:26:40.035
to do live. I may be mistaken. It certainly would make it easier.

374
00:26:40.575 --> 00:26:42.674
I wanna get a Rodecaster Pro 2,

375
00:26:43.054 --> 00:26:46.200
and then I do wanna upgrade my mic. My mic is old.

376
00:26:46.500 --> 00:26:53.320
Not that it's well, old isn't really a big deal, but it's pretty low quality. I think I could do a lot better,

377
00:26:54.345 --> 00:26:55.725
and it would sound better.

378
00:26:56.184 --> 00:26:57.804
So there we go.

379
00:26:58.184 --> 00:27:04.590
That's my goals for 2024. Let's talk about Bitcoin for just a second. It had an interesting year.

380
00:27:06.730 --> 00:27:08.270
January 1, 2023,

381
00:27:08.890 --> 00:27:11.764
it closed at $16,125.10.

382
00:27:13.505 --> 00:27:20.600
Do you even remember that? I do. I was stacking sats. I also encouraged you to do the same thing. I hope you

383
00:27:21.559 --> 00:27:25.340
did because those sats have now almost tripled in value.

384
00:27:25.960 --> 00:27:28.460
December 31, today 2023,

385
00:27:29.345 --> 00:27:32.965
Time of recording, which is now 149 in the afternoon,

386
00:27:33.825 --> 00:27:34.325
CST,

387
00:27:35.745 --> 00:27:36.245
US.

388
00:27:37.220 --> 00:27:38.520
We are at 42,639.

389
00:27:41.380 --> 00:27:43.320
I will jot that down right now.

390
00:27:45.995 --> 00:27:47.215
So like I said,

391
00:27:47.675 --> 00:27:49.055
we have almost tripled

392
00:27:49.435 --> 00:27:50.175
in value

393
00:27:50.475 --> 00:27:51.535
during the year.

394
00:27:52.610 --> 00:27:54.230
Basically, we've seen a steady

395
00:27:54.769 --> 00:27:57.590
increase across the year. It's been kind of crazy

396
00:27:58.049 --> 00:28:05.175
where we go up and then we level off for a little bit, and then we go up. I I didn't bring up trading view, which I have right here, but,

397
00:28:07.715 --> 00:28:08.695
I mean, really,

398
00:28:09.155 --> 00:28:12.150
that's kind of what it's been. We we did go sideways.

399
00:28:13.410 --> 00:28:14.790
Okay. So here we go.

400
00:28:15.170 --> 00:28:16.310
Let's just go ahead,

401
00:28:17.325 --> 00:28:18.304
See how Macintosh

402
00:28:18.605 --> 00:28:19.105
did.

403
00:28:20.525 --> 00:28:21.985
Yep. There's 2023

404
00:28:22.605 --> 00:28:24.304
right there. So we went

405
00:28:24.840 --> 00:28:29.260
from basically the bottom in 22 in January 1 right there,

406
00:28:29.720 --> 00:28:31.180
all the way up to

407
00:28:31.960 --> 00:28:34.634
April 11, we hit 31,000.

408
00:28:35.014 --> 00:28:36.875
We did go sideways, basically,

409
00:28:37.495 --> 00:28:38.475
between April

410
00:28:39.174 --> 00:28:50.590
and when we have that breakout, October 23. So that was kind of our grind, and you guys remember that. It hasn't been that long, but we just kinda we ground down, then back up. We were in that parallel channel

411
00:28:51.355 --> 00:28:52.175
for months,

412
00:28:52.795 --> 00:28:58.815
and then we jumped out of it when we broke free. We've gone from there up to 44700

413
00:28:59.995 --> 00:29:00.790
or So

414
00:29:02.370 --> 00:29:06.550
and we've kinda been waiting. And what are we waiting for? In my opinion,

415
00:29:07.090 --> 00:29:08.390
we're waiting for these

416
00:29:09.565 --> 00:29:19.240
ETFs to be approved. This is the one bit of news I did wanna talk about. There's been a fair amount of Activity on that front during January or during December.

417
00:29:20.100 --> 00:29:24.200
It does look like those will be approved maybe as early as

418
00:29:25.774 --> 00:29:28.835
The next, like, let's see, Tuesday, Wednesday,

419
00:29:29.215 --> 00:29:30.914
so 2nd 3rd,

420
00:29:31.375 --> 00:29:41.575
the FCC may come out and say, you know, To all these companies or at least the majority of them, you're ready to go. You can go next week. So, like,

421
00:29:42.135 --> 00:29:44.475
Literally, January 7 or so,

422
00:29:44.855 --> 00:29:47.115
we may see those go live.

423
00:29:48.135 --> 00:29:53.230
I certainly think it's going to happen in January. I'm willing to say that at this point.

424
00:29:53.610 --> 00:29:55.230
All signs point to that.

425
00:29:56.410 --> 00:29:57.470
When that happens,

426
00:29:57.904 --> 00:30:02.164
I do believe we'll see Bitcoin probably spike up to about $50,000.

427
00:30:02.705 --> 00:30:03.184
Now

428
00:30:04.144 --> 00:30:05.284
it may be more.

429
00:30:06.380 --> 00:30:08.640
I'm fairly confident we'll at least

430
00:30:09.180 --> 00:30:12.480
kind of touch that even if we fall back down.

431
00:30:13.985 --> 00:30:17.925
I actually don't have anything charted above where we're at at

432
00:30:18.305 --> 00:30:19.765
448 or whatever,

433
00:30:20.690 --> 00:30:26.790
that last line of resistance that we hit. So I'm not willing to do anything other than say, well, $50,000

434
00:30:27.410 --> 00:30:28.950
is a nice round number,

435
00:30:29.405 --> 00:30:30.225
which it is.

436
00:30:31.005 --> 00:30:35.105
We may spike right on past that, and we'll see where we go.

437
00:30:35.405 --> 00:30:36.385
I do believe,

438
00:30:36.830 --> 00:30:40.130
I'm jumping ahead in my notes. I'm not even looking at them.

439
00:30:41.309 --> 00:30:44.049
Alright. We'll get to that in a minute. Hash rate.

440
00:30:45.535 --> 00:30:48.035
Well, no. I I'll just go ahead and make that.

441
00:30:48.655 --> 00:30:52.355
Yeah. No. I've got I'll talk about I've let me stop. Let me stop.

442
00:30:52.820 --> 00:30:56.040
Anyways, that ETF news is very important,

443
00:30:56.820 --> 00:31:03.945
not because we need e ETFs, and I think I've made that very clear. But what it does is, You know, we gain acceptance.

444
00:31:04.565 --> 00:31:07.705
This is Wall Street coming into Bitcoin land,

445
00:31:08.165 --> 00:31:12.105
and we will see a surge in investment.

446
00:31:13.030 --> 00:31:14.890
I don't have the figures in front of me,

447
00:31:15.190 --> 00:31:16.890
but the amount of money that

448
00:31:17.830 --> 00:31:19.450
it could be quite large.

449
00:31:20.405 --> 00:31:22.505
So we will see how that works out.

450
00:31:22.805 --> 00:31:25.785
I'm very, very interested about that because

451
00:31:26.780 --> 00:31:29.920
In a sense, not that Bitcoin needs legitimizing,

452
00:31:30.220 --> 00:31:31.040
but it legitimizes

453
00:31:31.340 --> 00:31:34
Bitcoin. At least it does to Wall Street.

454
00:31:35.184 --> 00:31:38.085
Now Wall Street can kiss my rear end, but

455
00:31:38.784 --> 00:31:43.044
but that doesn't mean Bitcoin is for everybody. I'd say this over and over.

456
00:31:43.950 --> 00:31:46.530
And so it's it's for Wall Street too. Now

457
00:31:47.150 --> 00:31:47.890
McIntosh: they can

458
00:31:48.510 --> 00:31:49.250
put in

459
00:31:50.655 --> 00:31:51.635
all their money,

460
00:31:52.175 --> 00:31:54.115
BlackRock and, you know,

461
00:31:54.495 --> 00:31:57.715
McIntosh: Morgan Stanley, I don't know, all these different companies.

462
00:31:58.015 --> 00:32:00.390
They can put all their money in a custodial solution,

463
00:32:00.950 --> 00:32:07.405
which seems to be Coinbase for the most part, and that's fine. That's not the way that I do it, and that's not what I

464
00:32:08.045 --> 00:32:09.985
preach, so to speak, but that is

465
00:32:10.685 --> 00:32:14.225
there's nothing wrong with that for those people. So, anyways,

466
00:32:14.685 --> 00:32:18.740
what was I where was I at? Hash rate, January 1, 2023.

467
00:32:19.360 --> 00:32:21.140
We were at approximately 255,000

468
00:32:22.160 --> 00:32:22.660
Exashash.

469
00:32:23.600 --> 00:32:24.100
So

470
00:32:24.480 --> 00:32:24.980
today,

471
00:32:25.534 --> 00:32:27.154
We're at roughly 563

472
00:32:29.534 --> 00:32:32.034
Exashash. So we have more than doubled,

473
00:32:32.950 --> 00:32:34.730
essentially, the mining power

474
00:32:35.030 --> 00:32:36.809
in the last year, which is

475
00:32:37.750 --> 00:32:38.250
stunning.

476
00:32:38.710 --> 00:32:43.185
I don't know where we go from here. Now If I'm going to make estimations,

477
00:32:43.565 --> 00:32:44.545
I would say,

478
00:32:45.245 --> 00:32:45.725
McIntosh: we don't make,

479
00:32:47.085 --> 00:32:51.450
McIntosh: whatever a 1000 Exashash is, a zetahash, think it is,

480
00:32:51.990 --> 00:32:52.890
next year.

481
00:32:53.270 --> 00:32:55.850
I believe we'll end up somewhere around 750.

482
00:32:56.390 --> 00:33:00.010
I think we have to slow down, but I could be wrong.

483
00:33:00.885 --> 00:33:04.345
I do believe after the havening, which we'll talk about in just a minute,

484
00:33:04.725 --> 00:33:14.049
you will see a drop in hash as servers go offline because it's no longer profitable at least for a short while, but then we'll see it ramp back up.

485
00:33:15.230 --> 00:33:19.730
I I am prepared to be wrong on on my estimations. We may be

486
00:33:20.215 --> 00:33:25.115
approaching a zeta hash or even above it by the end of next year, which would be insane.

487
00:33:26.990 --> 00:33:27.490
Alright.

488
00:33:27.870 --> 00:33:31.970
Let's talk about what went on last year, kind of the big stories.

489
00:33:33.070 --> 00:33:36.625
And where were we at on this? What does it mean for 2024?

490
00:33:37.405 --> 00:33:40.625
Bank failures. We had 3 big bank failures. There was more,

491
00:33:41.940 --> 00:33:44.760
But we had 3 big bank failures here in the United States.

492
00:33:45.299 --> 00:33:46.200
1st Republic.

493
00:33:46.980 --> 00:33:49.960
No. Let's go in order. Sorry. Silicon Valley,

494
00:33:50.659 --> 00:33:51.559
March 10th,

495
00:33:53.525 --> 00:34:02.580
failed. So Silicon Valley Bank was a bank that was used by a lot of the companies in Silicon Valley. They, like, literally companies held $1,000,000,000

496
00:34:03.279 --> 00:34:07.700
for payroll, things like this. Companies like Netflix. Now I don't know if Netflix was.

497
00:34:08.079 --> 00:34:10.895
Very likely they were, but Maybe they weren't,

498
00:34:11.435 --> 00:34:15.435
but that kind of company would have their accounts. And they

499
00:34:16.155 --> 00:34:20.339
because of what The fed had done with interest rates driving up.

500
00:34:21.200 --> 00:34:22.260
Well, because

501
00:34:23.680 --> 00:34:26.740
inflation went up so quickly, they drove up interest rates

502
00:34:27.085 --> 00:34:30.545
grew from 0 to 5% in the order of a few months.

503
00:34:30.924 --> 00:34:31.424
That

504
00:34:31.724 --> 00:34:33.265
put a lot of banks in turmoil.

505
00:34:33.805 --> 00:34:35.585
Silicon Valley, like I said,

506
00:34:36.069 --> 00:34:38.650
They were they basically went bankrupt,

507
00:34:38.950 --> 00:34:42.890
March 10th. March 12th, Signature Bank. That was on a Friday.

508
00:34:43.505 --> 00:34:46.645
Signature Bank was on a Sunday, which was very weird.

509
00:34:47.984 --> 00:34:50.325
The thing about signature was it was actually

510
00:34:51.420 --> 00:34:55.520
responsible for banking some of the exchanges, if I'm not mistaken.

511
00:34:56.460 --> 00:34:59.440
I think signature was forced to close,

512
00:35:00.095 --> 00:35:01.875
in my opinion. Now that's conspiratorial.

513
00:35:02.255 --> 00:35:05.555
I'll just tell you that, but I don't think they were insolvent.

514
00:35:06.335 --> 00:35:07.474
I think the SEC

515
00:35:07.775 --> 00:35:11.500
closed them or not the SEC, Whoever's in charge of the banks

516
00:35:12.200 --> 00:35:13.260
to send a message.

517
00:35:14.039 --> 00:35:15.420
Now we've seen crypto

518
00:35:16.039 --> 00:35:19.625
regulation all year long, and we're about to talk about that. But,

519
00:35:21.065 --> 00:35:24.685
Yeah. I think this was a warning. I don't know. That's just me being conspiratorial

520
00:35:25.145 --> 00:35:25.645
probably.

521
00:35:26.025 --> 00:35:27.405
And then on May 1st,

522
00:35:27.730 --> 00:35:33.510
First National or First Republic Bank. So these three things kinda sent shock waves through the industry,

523
00:35:33.810 --> 00:35:34.310
through

524
00:35:34.984 --> 00:35:35.964
Finance through,

525
00:35:37.224 --> 00:35:39.244
you know, all of that kind of stuff.

526
00:35:40.025 --> 00:35:43.964
These are large banks. These were not small little mom and pop banks.

527
00:35:44.579 --> 00:35:47.160
There were not super banks like, you know, JPMorgan,

528
00:35:48.260 --> 00:35:48.760
Chase,

529
00:35:50.980 --> 00:35:54.575
I don't know. City, one of these very large banks, but

530
00:35:55.515 --> 00:35:57.375
they were certainly mid level.

531
00:35:57.675 --> 00:35:58.895
And they all three

532
00:35:59.290 --> 00:36:00.730
within six weeks,

533
00:36:01.290 --> 00:36:02.030
or so,

534
00:36:02.410 --> 00:36:09.365
kind of, you know, they they were basically bought out for pennies on the dollar, really, by other companies, including JPMorgan.

535
00:36:09.825 --> 00:36:10.325
Actually,

536
00:36:10.625 --> 00:36:11.924
they bought First Republic.

537
00:36:12.785 --> 00:36:15.125
What else did we have going on? Well,

538
00:36:15.810 --> 00:36:16.310
2023,

539
00:36:16.930 --> 00:36:18.070
it looks like,

540
00:36:18.370 --> 00:36:19.910
will probably bring the end

541
00:36:20.450 --> 00:36:21.350
to the FTX

542
00:36:21.650 --> 00:36:22.150
mess.

543
00:36:22.744 --> 00:36:23.244
So

544
00:36:23.625 --> 00:36:25.244
back early in the year,

545
00:36:25.545 --> 00:36:28.905
somewhere around that same time frame, March, April, May, I don't know.

546
00:36:29.305 --> 00:36:30.445
A jury convicted,

547
00:36:31.740 --> 00:36:33.040
Sam Bankman freed

548
00:36:33.420 --> 00:36:33.920
of

549
00:36:34.700 --> 00:36:39.600
a number of charges, wire fraud. Well, this is wire fraud and 6 other charges.

550
00:36:40.115 --> 00:36:42.694
So he has been cooling his heels in jail

551
00:36:43.234 --> 00:36:44.454
for house arrest.

552
00:36:44.835 --> 00:36:46.855
Not too long after that, CZ,

553
00:36:47.660 --> 00:36:50.560
who was the founder of Binance agreed to plead guilty

554
00:36:51.420 --> 00:36:52.480
to money laundering

555
00:36:53.660 --> 00:36:57.040
of all things as part of a settlement between the US authorities

556
00:36:57.505 --> 00:36:58.165
and Binance.

557
00:36:59.185 --> 00:37:03.205
And just recently, he was actually denied the ability to leave the United States.

558
00:37:03.505 --> 00:37:05.445
So, essentially, he's trapped here.

559
00:37:06.800 --> 00:37:13.940
So that remains to be seen. One of the interesting things about FTX to circle back to that is just recently, it was disclosed.

560
00:37:14.335 --> 00:37:15.955
FTX gave, like, $100,000,000

561
00:37:16.734 --> 00:37:19.075
to different politicians in the United States,

562
00:37:19.375 --> 00:37:21.234
primarily, but not exclusively

563
00:37:21.535 --> 00:37:22.035
Democrats.

564
00:37:22.510 --> 00:37:25.329
That's a fact. Just throwing that out there.

565
00:37:26.030 --> 00:37:26.530
And

566
00:37:26.910 --> 00:37:27.550
he will not

567
00:37:28.190 --> 00:37:31.569
Sam Bankman Fried will not be charged with that.

568
00:37:32.735 --> 00:37:35.075
So, basically, they've come out and said,

569
00:37:36.255 --> 00:37:46.910
the the trial that's done, you know, he's found guilty of all that. The penalty phase has not been done yet, but he's in, you know, house arrest or jail. I don't know which.

570
00:37:47.665 --> 00:37:49.125
But he will spend

571
00:37:49.905 --> 00:37:53.605
basically the rest of his life in jail for that most likely,

572
00:37:53.984 --> 00:37:55.445
at least a long time.

573
00:37:55.830 --> 00:37:58.170
But they're not going to charge him

574
00:37:58.790 --> 00:38:04.330
with all of the other things. There are a number of other charges that were to be done separately, including

575
00:38:04.984 --> 00:38:05.805
This campaign

576
00:38:06.585 --> 00:38:08.285
fraud, which is what it was.

577
00:38:10.744 --> 00:38:11.244
So

578
00:38:11.704 --> 00:38:12.845
that's interesting.

579
00:38:15.280 --> 00:38:17.060
One of the things that went on this year,

580
00:38:17.840 --> 00:38:23.704
the SEC has been cracking down on casino coins as securities. So what this means is

581
00:38:24.244 --> 00:38:25.545
they're going into places

582
00:38:26.005 --> 00:38:28.424
and like Kraken. They're saying, Kraken,

583
00:38:29.850 --> 00:38:31.630
You have been dealing in

584
00:38:32.330 --> 00:38:32.830
unregistered

585
00:38:33.130 --> 00:38:36.350
securities, which is what they call them because they are securities,

586
00:38:37.234 --> 00:38:38.375
and they're not registered

587
00:38:38.835 --> 00:38:39.654
as such.

588
00:38:40.355 --> 00:38:43.255
And I think in Kraken's case, they paid a $30,000,000

589
00:38:43.795 --> 00:38:47.050
fine. Now I don't know what came out of that other than a fine,

590
00:38:47.830 --> 00:38:49.850
but that's just one example. Coinbase,

591
00:38:50.790 --> 00:38:51.530
same thing.

592
00:38:51.975 --> 00:38:57.275
They've gone after Ripple. The Ripple case kind of settled. Basically, they were saying

593
00:38:57.655 --> 00:39:02.340
the people who bought the coins on the Changes were not guilty of anything,

594
00:39:02.880 --> 00:39:05.540
which is I mean, really, what are you gonna do?

595
00:39:06.160 --> 00:39:10.415
I think they're still trying to get to the people

596
00:39:10.715 --> 00:39:14.975
in charge of Ripple. So Ripple's a company. Actually, it's Ripple Labs.

597
00:39:16.155 --> 00:39:17.215
But, you know,

598
00:39:17.830 --> 00:39:19.930
Whatever. I don't know. Ripples' security,

599
00:39:20.710 --> 00:39:23.530
and they called it as such, at least in certain cases,

600
00:39:23.990 --> 00:39:26.330
which I don't know how that works, but whatever.

601
00:39:27.345 --> 00:39:30.325
So, anyways, the last figure I've seen,

602
00:39:31.105 --> 00:39:32.485
I think this is a legitimate

603
00:39:32.785 --> 00:39:34.965
number. I've looked at it a couple times.

604
00:39:35.570 --> 00:39:44.984
There have been 68 different tokens that have been declared to be securities. So 68. Bitcoin, of course, is not among them because Coin is not a security,

605
00:39:46.645 --> 00:39:54.790
for a number of reasons, but and I don't think Ethereum is listed at this point. Now I think the SEC is Setting Ethereum aside.

606
00:39:56.130 --> 00:39:57.110
In my opinion,

607
00:39:57.650 --> 00:39:59.350
Ethereum very much is a security,

608
00:40:00.210 --> 00:40:04.335
probably more so than The vast majority of those stupid tokens,

609
00:40:05.115 --> 00:40:08.414
but they're they're setting them aside for, you know, whatever.

610
00:40:10.690 --> 00:40:20.135
To make a example of maybe in the next few years. We'll see. But it well, I'm not gonna go down the Ethereum rabbit hole. It doesn't Matter we don't talk about Ethereum here.

611
00:40:21.875 --> 00:40:25.875
But funny things are going on over there. They are becoming they are realizing

612
00:40:26.280 --> 00:40:32.940
I will say this. They are realizing they have to now that they moved to proof of stake. They're going to end up being even more centralized

613
00:40:33.240 --> 00:40:37.714
in terms of their Collinators. I'm like, man, you geniuses didn't see that coming.

614
00:40:38.255 --> 00:40:38.755
Whatever.

615
00:40:39.694 --> 00:40:42.515
China news. You guys know I like to talk about China.

616
00:40:42.950 --> 00:40:47.770
There was 2 big things out of China this year, and I think both of them are very important. Evergrande

617
00:40:48.470 --> 00:40:49.290
went bankrupt.

618
00:40:50.685 --> 00:40:53.025
They had been defaulting on their debt.

619
00:40:53.565 --> 00:40:55.585
Let's see. I think that was in 2022.

620
00:40:58.810 --> 00:40:59.630
In 2023,

621
00:40:59.930 --> 00:41:02.030
they did go bankrupt in August.

622
00:41:02.330 --> 00:41:03.870
So they are officially bankrupt.

623
00:41:04.170 --> 00:41:06.830
Not sure really what's gonna happen at this point.

624
00:41:07.345 --> 00:41:09.924
There's some kind of ruling that's happening soon

625
00:41:10.785 --> 00:41:11.444
on that.

626
00:41:12.385 --> 00:41:13.365
Country Gardens,

627
00:41:14.280 --> 00:41:17.100
The other big real estate company essentially

628
00:41:17.560 --> 00:41:18.300
in China,

629
00:41:18.840 --> 00:41:23.740
they have not defaulted, but their sales are down a stupid amount of money.

630
00:41:24.105 --> 00:41:25.164
That's like 81%

631
00:41:26.345 --> 00:41:27.244
year over year,

632
00:41:28.585 --> 00:41:29.325
in September.

633
00:41:29.865 --> 00:41:33.099
So a few months ago, They did report $7,000,000,000,

634
00:41:33.960 --> 00:41:38.715
that's billion with a b, dollars loss in the first half of twenty twenty three.

635
00:41:39.915 --> 00:41:45.615
So I think they will be defaulting and going bankrupt as well. They're just a little behind Evergrande.

636
00:41:46.039 --> 00:41:49.900
I think that saga will continue, and what people don't understand

637
00:41:50.519 --> 00:41:56.255
is that a lot of the financial wealth that was built up in China was done.

638
00:41:56.955 --> 00:42:04.015
A significant percentage. I'm not gonna give it a number, but it's not like 5%. It's, you know, much larger than that.

639
00:42:05.579 --> 00:42:06.700
Was done through fine,

640
00:42:07.099 --> 00:42:07.839
real estate,

641
00:42:08.380 --> 00:42:12.640
through companies like these 2 companies. That's why you saw

642
00:42:13.765 --> 00:42:15.704
Literal cities being built

643
00:42:16.244 --> 00:42:20.744
that were empty, and that's been reported. I'm not gonna go into that, but

644
00:42:21.580 --> 00:42:25.040
It this will hurt China in the long run very significantly.

645
00:42:25.340 --> 00:42:27.040
What do we have coming in 2024?

646
00:42:27.420 --> 00:42:33.855
I've written down a few things. I think these are are very important. I think these will help fuel

647
00:42:34.714 --> 00:42:35.214
Bitcoin.

648
00:42:35.675 --> 00:42:40.410
We already know about the 4 year cycle. We already know, you know, we're kind of in that paradigm,

649
00:42:40.870 --> 00:42:42.490
but these are the things that

650
00:42:42.790 --> 00:42:45.450
the reasons why I think we're gonna come out of 2024.

651
00:42:46.285 --> 00:42:47.105
You know, we're at 42,000,

652
00:42:47.965 --> 00:42:48.465
roughly

653
00:42:48.765 --> 00:42:49.265
43,000

654
00:42:50.125 --> 00:42:50.785
right now.

655
00:42:51.485 --> 00:42:54.865
We could be double that towards the end of the year. It may be higher.

656
00:42:56.450 --> 00:43:00.230
So we got to have an incoming in late April. So at block height,

657
00:43:00.690 --> 00:43:01.190
840,000.

658
00:43:04.144 --> 00:43:05.525
Oh, I did not do

659
00:43:06.785 --> 00:43:08.724
what our current block height is.

660
00:43:09.424 --> 00:43:10.404
Man, Macintosh.

661
00:43:11.309 --> 00:43:11.809
823,771.

662
00:43:16.349 --> 00:43:17.970
Let me jot that down.

663
00:43:21.685 --> 00:43:22.185
Okay.

664
00:43:22.725 --> 00:43:28.390
So that's our current block height. I'm not gonna go through the difficulty or whatever. Fees are still crazy high.

665
00:43:28.950 --> 00:43:32.490
Right now, it's looking like about 200 stats per vbite.

666
00:43:33.349 --> 00:43:37.529
Very little relief in that. It's all I'm gonna say about that for right now.

667
00:43:38.815 --> 00:43:40.035
Still on target.

668
00:43:42.815 --> 00:43:47.315
Who was that that said that in Star Wars? Was that Luke? I can't remember.

669
00:43:48.620 --> 00:43:49.120
McIntosh: Alright.

670
00:43:49.420 --> 00:43:49.920
Sorry.

671
00:43:51.100 --> 00:43:52.400
Squirrels run amok.

672
00:43:53.260 --> 00:43:53.760
Halvening.

673
00:43:54.620 --> 00:43:58.565
McIntosh: The block reward will go from 0.25 Bitcoin down to 3.175

674
00:44:00.305 --> 00:44:00.805
Bitcoin

675
00:44:01.905 --> 00:44:05.925
plus the transaction fees. So we will see an immediate cut

676
00:44:06.390 --> 00:44:07.290
in the reward.

677
00:44:07.750 --> 00:44:13.369
So that's coming. We've got US elections in November November 5th, our general election

678
00:44:13.670 --> 00:44:14.385
next year.

679
00:44:14.945 --> 00:44:16.085
Why is that important?

680
00:44:17.665 --> 00:44:23.125
Well, being the conspiracy theorist that I am, I would argue that regardless of whomever

681
00:44:23.665 --> 00:44:36.505
is in Our, whether that be Republican or Democrat, during an election year, they will do everything in their power to make the market look Good. Because a bad economy is the easiest way to get someone out of office.

682
00:44:37.605 --> 00:44:39.385
What does that mean? Hey.

683
00:44:40.349 --> 00:44:41.650
If I'm Joe Biden,

684
00:44:41.950 --> 00:44:44.509
which I am not, but if I'm Joe Biden, I tap,

685
00:44:44.990 --> 00:44:46.289
Powell on the shoulder

686
00:44:46.750 --> 00:44:47.890
and say, hey, buddy.

687
00:44:48.555 --> 00:44:50.815
you need to start bringing down interest rates

688
00:44:51.515 --> 00:44:56.095
because when you start bringing down interest rates, that's gonna mean that people are gonna start investing,

689
00:44:57.050 --> 00:44:58.510
and the economy

690
00:44:58.970 --> 00:45:00.670
is going to do better.

691
00:45:01.210 --> 00:45:04.030
People will feel better and so on and so forth.

692
00:45:04.625 --> 00:45:05.685
McIntosh: So that's coming.

693
00:45:06.625 --> 00:45:07.125
Now

694
00:45:08.065 --> 00:45:14.840
McIntosh: Now we know Powell is already even saying kind of we've reached the top. We're probably gonna hold here for a few more months.

695
00:45:15.300 --> 00:45:19.720
I'm expecting by the end of Q1, so January, February, March,

696
00:45:20.155 --> 00:45:24.575
Right around that happening that we start seeing the interest rates drop,

697
00:45:25.115 --> 00:45:26.015
which will

698
00:45:26.474 --> 00:45:28.550
push Jay, boom. People don't realize

699
00:45:28.850 --> 00:45:35.270
even though the financial markets are in terrible shape in terms in a lot of metrics, by pure numbers,

700
00:45:36.735 --> 00:45:42.275
One of the markets is in an all time high. I don't remember which one, the S and P or whatever,

701
00:45:42.735 --> 00:45:44.270
which one of those it was,

702
00:45:44.750 --> 00:45:48.930
But they're doing very well. And if they break out,

703
00:45:49.630 --> 00:45:52.130
what we're going to see, in my opinion,

704
00:45:52.925 --> 00:45:58.545
especially as these interest rates drop. We're gonna see a market boom. I think over the summer,

705
00:45:59.085 --> 00:46:00.945
the stock market's gonna go crazy,

706
00:46:01.860 --> 00:46:05.240
And we've seen this in the past. We saw it, by the way,

707
00:46:05.700 --> 00:46:06.200
after,

708
00:46:07.060 --> 00:46:08.440
the great depression started,

709
00:46:09.380 --> 00:46:10.505
kind of during that,

710
00:46:10.984 --> 00:46:14.765
Well, the thirties. Right? We saw that stuff going on back then.

711
00:46:16.105 --> 00:46:22.880
So the lower interest rates, The stock market will shoot up. Everybody's gonna rah rah rah. Now what's gonna happen,

712
00:46:23.980 --> 00:46:25.600
I believe in 2024,

713
00:46:26.060 --> 00:46:28.395
we will see. Now this is my speculation,

714
00:46:29.655 --> 00:46:33.115
but I believe that we'll see the commercial real estate market crash.

715
00:46:33.575 --> 00:46:35.660
Why? Well, I've talked about that.

716
00:46:36.460 --> 00:46:38.480
Vacancy rates are very high.

717
00:46:38.780 --> 00:46:39.920
This is a combination

718
00:46:40.700 --> 00:46:43.599
not a combination. It's primarily driven by COVID.

719
00:46:44.265 --> 00:46:47.885
When people left for COVID, when nobody was working at the office,

720
00:46:48.984 --> 00:46:51.885
a lot of these people decided they like working remotely.

721
00:46:52.710 --> 00:47:00.569
And so companies are coming up with all kinds of, you know, you either work at home or maybe you come in 1 day a week or you do some kind of hybrid thing.

722
00:47:01.755 --> 00:47:03.295
Not as much office space

723
00:47:03.595 --> 00:47:04.815
usage. Also,

724
00:47:05.115 --> 00:47:13.369
we've had a lot of layoffs. We've had hundreds of thousands of people who are getting laid off from these big tech companies and this kind of thing.

725
00:47:14.230 --> 00:47:17.450
We've also had companies going bankrupt quietly.

726
00:47:18.595 --> 00:47:26.215
So you've got companies going out of business. You got companies who are downsizing, and you've got companies who are to stay competitive

727
00:47:26.994 --> 00:47:31.880
moving to this Kinda hybrid working model where people are working from home more.

728
00:47:32.180 --> 00:47:35.800
My own company, not that I own it, but the company I work for,

729
00:47:36.100 --> 00:47:36.840
for example,

730
00:47:37.395 --> 00:47:44.535
Owned, like, 3 floors of an office building, and I'm not even gonna say where because it's not relevant and it's none of your business.

731
00:47:45.120 --> 00:48:02.970
But they've given up one of those. Not that they owned it. They were leasing that. They gave it up, and now that floor just sits it sits empty. There are markets where there are extremely high vacancy rates, and these companies, especially with these high interest rates, are going to start going bankrupt. These are the commercial

732
00:48:03.270 --> 00:48:04.330
real estate companies.

733
00:48:04.790 --> 00:48:06.250
Companies like Evergrande

734
00:48:07.030 --> 00:48:07.530
and,

735
00:48:08.310 --> 00:48:10.865
Country Garden in China. Now those were

736
00:48:11.484 --> 00:48:13.265
slightly different, but those are

737
00:48:13.885 --> 00:48:16.464
for maybe for different reasons, really. But

738
00:48:17.140 --> 00:48:17.960
The those

739
00:48:18.420 --> 00:48:24.555
kind of companies, real estate investment companies, companies who own buildings who then lease them out.

740
00:48:26.075 --> 00:48:27.694
I do not know what the implications

741
00:48:27.994 --> 00:48:32.895
are of that. I don't know if that's going to cause a general crash of the market.

742
00:48:33.280 --> 00:48:35.940
I'm not gonna speculate on that. I do not know.

743
00:48:36.560 --> 00:48:38.740
I believe it will cause a significant

744
00:48:39.040 --> 00:48:39.540
drag,

745
00:48:39.920 --> 00:48:41.860
but this market has to reset.

746
00:48:42.615 --> 00:48:44.395
The prices have to reset.

747
00:48:46.055 --> 00:48:46.875
The expectations

748
00:48:47.335 --> 00:48:49.915
have to reset. All of this has to be done

749
00:48:50.550 --> 00:48:52.810
before we could even talk about moving forward.

750
00:48:53.190 --> 00:48:55.130
I do think that will happen in 2025.

751
00:48:55.510 --> 00:48:57.210
I will say in general also,

752
00:48:57.675 --> 00:48:58.734
I don't think 2025

753
00:48:59.275 --> 00:49:02.095
for most people is gonna be any better than 2024.

754
00:49:02.395 --> 00:49:08.420
I hope you are doing well. Some of us are, But there's a lot of people, frankly, who are hurting.

755
00:49:09.280 --> 00:49:15.494
And, I hope that, you know, you, the listeners, of course, are not in that case. I'm sure some of you are unfortunately

756
00:49:16.595 --> 00:49:17.815
and I hope 2025

757
00:49:18.355 --> 00:49:19.095
or 2024

758
00:49:19.395 --> 00:49:20.615
is better for you.

759
00:49:21.075 --> 00:49:25.240
I'm not sure that that's gonna be the case. I think I misspoke earlier and said 2025

760
00:49:25.540 --> 00:49:26.839
instead of 2024.

761
00:49:27.700 --> 00:49:28.839
But just in general,

762
00:49:29.380 --> 00:49:34.745
I think that 2024 is going to be Not a whole lot different than 2023.

763
00:49:35.445 --> 00:49:41.785
We may not reach a level of great depression, and I was pretty doom and gloom about a year or so ago.

764
00:49:42.470 --> 00:49:42.970
I'm

765
00:49:43.750 --> 00:49:44.809
still very pessimistic,

766
00:49:45.109 --> 00:49:48.089
but we may not reach that level at this point.

767
00:49:49.245 --> 00:49:51.185
We will see. It is possible

768
00:49:51.645 --> 00:49:57.185
that we could pull ourselves out of this and continue to build debt. Oh, by the way, the US is poised.

769
00:49:57.650 --> 00:49:59.589
I believe well, we're at, like,

770
00:49:59.890 --> 00:50:00.390
$33,900,000,000,000.

771
00:50:02.609 --> 00:50:04.150
So we're almost $34,000,000,000,000

772
00:50:04.770 --> 00:50:07.035
McIntosh: of debt. I don't think we're gonna quite make it

773
00:50:07.994 --> 00:50:08.494
before

774
00:50:09.115 --> 00:50:13.214
McIntosh: 2024, but I'm sure that will be happening very soon in January.

775
00:50:14.050 --> 00:50:15.030
So there you go.

776
00:50:15.410 --> 00:50:23.830
That debt has to get taken care of. The global debt has to get taken care of some somewhere. We there's just way, way, way too much.

777
00:50:24.355 --> 00:50:27.734
McIntosh: And how that's done through default or or through,

778
00:50:28.194 --> 00:50:28.855
you know,

779
00:50:30.355 --> 00:50:34.049
McIntosh: I can't think of the word right now, but you're making your money Worthless.

780
00:50:34.750 --> 00:50:36.769
It has to be done one way or the other.

781
00:50:37.710 --> 00:50:49.175
Remains to be seen how that's done. Anyways, enough about that. Let's talk about some other things. The SEC and various other guns government institutions are going to continue to regulate the crypto market.

782
00:50:51.440 --> 00:50:57.700
We have people in our government who are dead set against any kind of crypto other than central bank digital currencies.

783
00:50:58.595 --> 00:51:05.174
Elizabeth Warren, who's a senator here in the United States, is a prime example. She has a bill that she is trying to float

784
00:51:05.555 --> 00:51:06.055
that

785
00:51:06.355 --> 00:51:07.174
I hope

786
00:51:07.750 --> 00:51:11.770
get shot down. That will do everything possible to shut down crypto.

787
00:51:12.230 --> 00:51:21.630
I think we will continue to see that in twenty 24, I think you will see it more on the side of crypto rather than Bitcoin, but Bitcoin will see its fair share as well.

788
00:51:22.589 --> 00:51:23.890
I hope all this ordinals,

789
00:51:24.430 --> 00:51:34.535
inscriptions, stamps, and BRC 20 crap fades off into the background. I don't think we should be censoring Yeah. I don't as a minor, frankly, I'm benefiting from it every day,

790
00:51:34.915 --> 00:51:38.375
but I also don't think it's a a good use

791
00:51:38.755 --> 00:51:39.575
of the blockchain.

792
00:51:40.420 --> 00:51:43.480
I think that we are pricing people out who,

793
00:51:45.460 --> 00:51:46.920
are not ready for that.

794
00:51:47.675 --> 00:51:54.415
We know ultimately in the long run that blockchain space on the Bitcoin main chain will become very expensive.

795
00:51:55.220 --> 00:52:07.475
But right now, I don't want it to be $50 just to do something on the main chain. I think lightning is going to continue to become more mature And more stable, god, I hope they fix all these force channel closures

796
00:52:08.095 --> 00:52:20.020
because especially with these high fee environments, that gets to be very expensive to reopen those. I also think it will probably become more centralized, which is something I would love to not see, but I also fully expect.

797
00:52:20.615 --> 00:52:25.515
I don't expect the e cash systems like Fedimint and ARC to take off in 2024.

798
00:52:26.615 --> 00:52:29.435
I do expect to see significant process progress

799
00:52:29.840 --> 00:52:36.340
on them. I also hope to see serious progress is made towards main chain, I mean, the Bitcoin main chain privacy.

800
00:52:37.674 --> 00:52:39.934
Privacy by default should be the model.

801
00:52:40.395 --> 00:52:42.734
I would love to see Monero's model

802
00:52:43.194 --> 00:52:44.575
essentially on Bitcoin.

803
00:52:45.520 --> 00:52:54.785
I don't know why at this point that we haven't given serious attention to that. We can use Whirlpool. We can use things like that, and we'll be talking about those through the year.

804
00:52:55.424 --> 00:52:59.924
But I want to see it baked into the main chain. We're over here arguing about

805
00:53:00.865 --> 00:53:02.805
covenants and this, that, and the other.

806
00:53:03.530 --> 00:53:14.665
To me, privacy is the number one concern right now on Bitcoin because we don't know what governments around the world are going to do, and I will continue to use Bitcoin regardless of what they say.

807
00:53:15.205 --> 00:53:21.670
And I would love to have my right to privacy, which as a US citizen is guaranteed to me in the constitution

808
00:53:22.050 --> 00:53:23.270
even though it's routinely

809
00:53:23.730 --> 00:53:24.710
trampled on.

810
00:53:25.730 --> 00:53:34.475
I also hope that Satoshi plebs listeners stack more sats, To maintain more self custody and gain more knowledge about Bitcoin and financial freedom.

811
00:53:34.855 --> 00:53:37.035
That is my predictions for 2024.

812
00:53:37.575 --> 00:53:44.130
In terms of price, In case I didn't say it, I think I did at least roughly. I wrote down 50 to 60,000

813
00:53:44.990 --> 00:53:45.730
McIntosh: by having,

814
00:53:46.105 --> 00:53:47.484
So in just a few months,

815
00:53:48.184 --> 00:53:49.325
80 k plus

816
00:53:50.184 --> 00:53:51.724
by end of year. I am

817
00:53:53.065 --> 00:53:56.270
McIntosh: purposely underestimating the effects Spot ETF

818
00:53:56.890 --> 00:53:57.390
potentially

819
00:53:57.930 --> 00:53:58.750
by a lot.

820
00:53:59.130 --> 00:54:00.110
I still believe

821
00:54:00.410 --> 00:54:01.870
at this point, 2025,

822
00:54:02.625 --> 00:54:03.125
Q4,

823
00:54:03.505 --> 00:54:06.885
probably November, if you forced my hand on it,

824
00:54:07.265 --> 00:54:11.285
will be the top of this cycle. And until proven otherwise,

825
00:54:12.130 --> 00:54:13.750
I will maintain that position.

826
00:54:14.610 --> 00:54:15.110
So

827
00:54:15.890 --> 00:54:23.455
we have an exciting couple of years. We are at the start, if not already past the start. In fact, it could be argued we're past the start

828
00:54:24.075 --> 00:54:26.335
of the bull market. So welcome to 2024.

829
00:54:27.195 --> 00:54:28.015
Dear listeners,

830
00:54:29.160 --> 00:54:32.860
I hope it will be a good one. I need to throw out some shouts,

831
00:54:33.400 --> 00:54:35.740
shout outs or whatever you say

832
00:54:36.335 --> 00:54:40.595
To some supporters, we did have some support come in after I posted the last episode,

833
00:54:41.855 --> 00:54:45.950
and this was for episode 148, mere mortals podcast, which Kyron.

834
00:54:46.970 --> 00:54:50.030
Our friend Kyron over there, sent 2222,

835
00:54:50.650 --> 00:54:51.710
a row of ducks.

836
00:54:52.170 --> 00:54:53.070
And he said,

837
00:54:53.375 --> 00:54:56.355
Satoshi plebs, fitting since you like the socioplebis

838
00:54:56.975 --> 00:54:57.475
motto

839
00:54:57.855 --> 00:55:00.995
so much. Thank you, Kyron. I put a lot of thought into that name,

840
00:55:01.375 --> 00:55:04.700
and I really like it. I hope y'all do as well.

841
00:55:05.480 --> 00:55:06.460
Episode 147,

842
00:55:07.320 --> 00:55:07.820
Hypersentivosaurus

843
00:55:08.200 --> 00:55:10.620
sent us 1,000 sats,

844
00:55:11.055 --> 00:55:12.275
our friend in Portugal.

845
00:55:13.214 --> 00:55:25.430
And, no message, and then sent another 1,000 sat and said, have a great December. I am going for a family time I tripped to the Netherlands myself, so sounds like they went back home.

846
00:55:26.130 --> 00:55:28.470
He's told us before that he is from the Netherlands.

847
00:55:28.770 --> 00:55:30.545
So I hope you had a great holiday.

848
00:55:31.725 --> 00:55:32.225
Hypersentivosaurus

849
00:55:32.525 --> 00:55:33.025
,

850
00:55:33.645 --> 00:55:36.625
I did. I enjoyed myself. I did work too much,

851
00:55:37.370 --> 00:55:39.550
But I've told y'all before, I'm a workaholic.

852
00:55:40.170 --> 00:55:45.175
I really wanted to get this stuff done, and I'm very pleased with how my I had more stuff. I have a list,

853
00:55:45.815 --> 00:55:54.875
but I did get a lot done. So and I also got to spend some time with my family and our friends and doing so tonight in just a few hours actually

854
00:55:55.319 --> 00:55:56.059
as well.

855
00:55:56.680 --> 00:55:57.740
So very cool.

856
00:55:58.359 --> 00:55:59.900
And thank you very much, hypersensitive.

857
00:56:00.520 --> 00:56:03.579
I do appreciate your support as always. And anonymous

858
00:56:04.755 --> 00:56:08.694
Sent us another 500 sets. I think he's sending 500 every time.

859
00:56:09.075 --> 00:56:13.174
Really cool. No message. Thank you. Anonymous as always. I appreciate that.

860
00:56:14.070 --> 00:56:20.885
Not gonna have any news and notes this week. I kinda covered everything. I think ETFs for the last month have kinda been the big news.

861
00:56:21.365 --> 00:56:25.065
You've probably already caught up about that elsewhere, and that's fine.

862
00:56:25.525 --> 00:56:26.025
Alright.

863
00:56:26.485 --> 00:56:27.785
So, of course, Satoshi's

864
00:56:28.085 --> 00:56:31.750
Plebs podcast. Boy, I'm gonna have to learn how to say that. That's fun.

865
00:56:32.690 --> 00:56:34.550
Y'all know I have trouble sometimes.

866
00:56:35.650 --> 00:56:37.190
Satoshis Plebs podcast

867
00:56:37.645 --> 00:56:49.260
supports podcasting 2.0. It's a value for value podcast as I talk about time and time again. I don't have ads. I don't have sponsorships. I don't have anything like that. You can support the podcast in a couple of ways.

868
00:56:49.960 --> 00:56:53.420
You can support it by time, by talent, by treasure.

869
00:56:53.720 --> 00:56:58.715
What do I mean? Well, I've still got projects. I as I've outlined, I will have projects

870
00:56:59.255 --> 00:56:59.755
through

871
00:57:00.135 --> 00:57:00.635
2024.

872
00:57:00.935 --> 00:57:05.080
There will always be projects. There's always things that people can help out on if they wish.

873
00:57:06.760 --> 00:57:15.565
That's the time and talent. If you've got treasure, if you've got some Bitcoin that you wanna support the show with, if this Show brings you value

874
00:57:17.145 --> 00:57:20.765
on a week in, week out basis, and I certainly hope it does.

875
00:57:21.145 --> 00:57:27.309
Please do 2 things. First of all, Promote the show. Let other people know. Say, hey. There's this guy, Macintosh.

876
00:57:27.849 --> 00:57:34.635
Does this show called Satoshi's Plebs? You can find did on any podcast 2 point o app. You can even find it on Apple Podcasts.

877
00:57:36.535 --> 00:57:48.020
But, go take a listen, And you can leave a review, which that would be nice. And then also, you can, if you're using a podcasting 2 point o app, you can stream some sats. You can boost and send a message

878
00:57:48.385 --> 00:57:49.525
Just like hypersensitive

879
00:57:49.985 --> 00:57:52.005
asaris and mere mortals did

880
00:57:52.305 --> 00:57:53.125
and anonymous.

881
00:57:54.225 --> 00:58:00.240
You can also if you really love Apple Podcasts, For example, you can go to podcast index.com.

882
00:58:01.260 --> 00:58:07.565
You can look up Satoshi's Plebs, and you can boost straight from there with an Alby wallet, which is simply a lightning wallet.

883
00:58:08.125 --> 00:58:12.785
So you can do it that way even without a podcasting 2 point o app.

884
00:58:13.645 --> 00:58:15.300
Alright. I'm gonna skip through

885
00:58:15.860 --> 00:58:17.720
Oh, some of this because, man,

886
00:58:18.100 --> 00:58:20.520
I got to get this edited and posted.

887
00:58:21.220 --> 00:58:21.720
Fountain

888
00:58:22.100 --> 00:58:26.795
podcast, I believe, is in 1 point o now. If it's not, it will be very soon.

889
00:58:27.174 --> 00:58:28.555
It's been a very solid

890
00:58:28.855 --> 00:58:29.355
app.

891
00:58:29.895 --> 00:58:31.755
I really like what they've done, especially

892
00:58:32.055 --> 00:58:32.954
with the clipping.

893
00:58:34.270 --> 00:58:35.650
The new clipping feature

894
00:58:36.109 --> 00:58:39.330
is a vast improvement. I think I told him it was a 2000%

895
00:58:39.710 --> 00:58:41.730
improvement, and I was not exaggerating.

896
00:58:42.615 --> 00:58:45.835
The other one used to frustrate me to no end, and this one's beautiful.

897
00:58:46.215 --> 00:58:47.835
It just works. It's great.

898
00:58:48.455 --> 00:58:50.075
You can check that out, fountain.fm

899
00:58:51.349 --> 00:58:53.930
Or there's a number of others. I use,

900
00:58:56.310 --> 00:58:57.849
I don't have it right. Customatic.

901
00:58:59.829 --> 00:59:00.329
Podcast

902
00:59:01.435 --> 00:59:01.935
Guru

903
00:59:02.715 --> 00:59:06.255
is another one. There's there's a number of them. You can go to podcastapps.com

904
00:59:07.515 --> 00:59:08.575
and take a look.

905
00:59:09.069 --> 00:59:14.210
Anyways, you can now reach me, Mcintosh at podcast index dot social on mastodon,

906
00:59:14.750 --> 00:59:15.809
Mcintosh@satoshis-plebs.com.

907
00:59:19.515 --> 00:59:21.615
And there's also the website at satoshis-plebs.com.

908
00:59:24.155 --> 00:59:28.390
So stay humble, friends. Go out. Make it a great week. I will talk to you soon

909
00:59:29.250 --> 00:59:29.750
McIntosh: soon,

910
00:59:30.609 --> 00:59:32.150
and have a great

911
00:59:33.010 --> 00:59:33.750
McIntosh: New Year's