1 00:00:00,000 –> 00:00:06,000 Hey SatStackers, today is March 27th and this is episode 101 of Generation Bitcoin.

2 00:00:06,000 –> 00:00:10,000 I’m your host McIntosh. Today’s episode is about the 4 year cycle.

3 00:00:30,000 –> 00:00:43,680 Of course no one on this podcast is a financial advisor and all information presented on this

4 00:00:43,680 –> 00:00:48,960 podcast is for informational purposes only. Now that we have the legal stuff out of the way,

5 00:00:48,960 –> 00:00:58,240 let’s jump on in. All right, the tea is hot. The market doing okay. We’ll talk about that

6 00:00:58,240 –> 00:01:06,720 just a second. But I wanted to have a discussion tonight about the 4 year cycle. If you’ve never

7 00:01:06,720 –> 00:01:13,840 heard of that, it’s a theory that basically the halvings of Bitcoin, which we have discussed

8 00:01:13,840 –> 00:01:23,440 before most recently in depth back in episode 93, but the halvings of Bitcoin drive a price cycle

9 00:01:24,240 –> 00:01:30,560 that we can map out over the last 12 years or so and we can see that pattern. So we’ll be

10 00:01:30,560 –> 00:01:42,800 discussing that tonight. All right, March the 27th. So we did have a closing price this week

11 00:01:42,880 –> 00:01:55,520 of Bitcoin at $28,001.04 actually. So that’s pretty good.

12 00:01:57,120 –> 00:02:03,040 Since I didn’t cover price last week due to me being out of town or the market analysis,

13 00:02:03,760 –> 00:02:08,320 I thought it might make sense to kind of dive into this for a few minutes. So

14 00:02:08,880 –> 00:02:16,720 let’s discuss where we are and where we have been over the last few weeks. So of course,

15 00:02:17,440 –> 00:02:25,520 we continue in this general uptrend. Things are looking pretty positive on a one day time frame.

16 00:02:26,640 –> 00:02:32,880 What that means is that a one day time frame is 24 hours. Of course, every candle on the

17 00:02:32,880 –> 00:02:39,680 charts is 24 hours. We have a pretty positive upswing. In fact, it goes now at this point

18 00:02:39,680 –> 00:02:53,040 all the way back technically, wow, to January the 1st. So we hit our low back on November the

19 00:02:53,040 –> 00:02:59,200 20th, if you recall. Which I believe, yeah, November the 21st, excuse me.

20 00:03:00,240 –> 00:03:05,840 And it looks like our price was right around $15,585. So around $15,600 or so.

21 00:03:07,040 –> 00:03:17,360 And we have certainly been in an uptrend. We have actually been going up since the 10th of March.

22 00:03:17,360 –> 00:03:24,320 We took a dip before that. For a couple of weeks, we went downward. And then on the 10th of March,

23 00:03:25,040 –> 00:03:30,720 we have went up. We’ve been sideways for roughly the last week or so. I’m not counting candles here

24 00:03:31,440 –> 00:03:37,840 specifically, but it looks like about six to seven days from what I’m seeing. So there is a

25 00:03:37,840 –> 00:03:48,240 possibility certainly at this level, if it does not break through kind of this 28,000 level

26 00:03:48,240 –> 00:03:54,480 and move a bit higher, we could kind of see a pause here and kind of turn back down.

27 00:03:57,440 –> 00:04:02,720 So there we go. When I recorded last week, in fact, let me see.

28 00:04:07,840 –> 00:04:14,800 There’s the 19th. I recorded on the 18th, right? We had basically just got up to this level.

29 00:04:15,440 –> 00:04:20,000 And of course, with the run that we had made over the course of the previous week,

30 00:04:21,280 –> 00:04:26,720 it’s quite normal for things to kind of pause a bit, but we’ve now been kind of paused for a week.

31 00:04:27,280 –> 00:04:31,840 So we’re going to have a direction one way or the other here, I would say, within the next few days.

32 00:04:31,920 –> 00:04:38,320 We will see. I would like to see it, of course, from a bull standpoint, continue on upward.

33 00:04:38,320 –> 00:04:42,080 It is very possible, though, that we could break back down for a little bit

34 00:04:42,720 –> 00:04:50,640 and maybe establish a lower level of support. We’ll see. As always, of course, my advice is to DCA.

35 00:04:51,520 –> 00:04:59,120 You should be buying Sats, stacking sats every day, regardless of the market.

36 00:04:59,120 –> 00:05:01,520 Now, I say that.

37 00:05:04,240 –> 00:05:11,760 And to an extent, I’ve taught a bit about this. There are some times when you may want to buy more.

38 00:05:11,760 –> 00:05:20,080 I’ve told you all, if the price got down to what I perceive as very low levels at this point,

39 00:05:20,720 –> 00:05:32,240 I bought a little chunk at that low of $15.50 or so. That was certainly a low level, given

40 00:05:33,120 –> 00:05:40,000 where we’ve been. I was hoping, I know it sounds bad, but I was hoping it was going to go lower.

41 00:05:41,760 –> 00:05:46,000 If we were down to that $10,000 or $12,000 level, I was going to

42 00:05:46,480 –> 00:05:51,440 push all my capital in and buy as much as I could. Of course, that hasn’t happened.

43 00:05:54,560 –> 00:06:01,120 But what we’re going to discuss tonight may actually help you in planning your future.

44 00:06:01,120 –> 00:06:08,080 Now, I, again, would caution. What I’m about to tell you does not negate a DCA.

45 00:06:08,080 –> 00:06:12,960 You should always DCA, even if it’s a very minimal amount.

46 00:06:12,960 –> 00:06:19,120 I consider, at this point, my mining to be my DCA. And just to give you guys an update on that,

47 00:06:19,120 –> 00:06:25,040 actually, I’ll do one. I think I maybe even said last week, I wasn’t going to give any more updates,

48 00:06:25,040 –> 00:06:34,240 but I’m going to give you one more. The reason why is, hold on just a second.

49 00:06:34,240 –> 00:06:44,880 I’m going to bring up my chart. I’ve never told y’all, as you can tell, I have a fairly noisy

50 00:06:44,880 –> 00:06:53,520 keyboard. I type a lot and I’m quite particular about my keyboard. In fact, for my work laptop,

51 00:06:53,520 –> 00:07:03,440 for my work computer, I should say, I typically use a MacBook of some kind of 13 inch or whatever,

52 00:07:03,440 –> 00:07:09,840 15 inch MacBook Pro. I find the Apple keyboards, in fact, to be quite

53 00:07:11,200 –> 00:07:16,560 dissatisfactory because they don’t have any travel to the keys, essentially.

54 00:07:18,320 –> 00:07:22,480 I’ll give you a little inside baseball. I’ve been at the company that I’m at for

55 00:07:22,480 –> 00:07:26,960 five years or so. In that time, I’ve actually worn out three Apple keyboards.

56 00:07:27,760 –> 00:07:35,600 I’m a fairly hard typer in case you can’t tell from when I type on my keyboard, but I have actually

57 00:07:35,600 –> 00:07:42,000 worn out three of these and had to send them back for repairs. I’m not saying to those Apple purists

58 00:07:42,000 –> 00:07:47,200 out there that Apple is not the best hardware in the world, blah, blah, blah. I actually do

59 00:07:47,200 –> 00:07:54,320 like Apple hardware in particular. What I would love to get is probably a Mac Studio. I think

60 00:07:54,800 –> 00:08:05,760 Mac Studio, I think that’s what they call it, with the ARM chipset CPUs. Those are,

61 00:08:08,160 –> 00:08:14,320 well, without turning this into a hardware podcast, those are, in my opinion, some of

62 00:08:14,320 –> 00:08:18,320 the best chips you can buy these days. I really like the ARM chipset. I actually,

63 00:08:18,480 –> 00:08:29,120 uh, anyways, I can’t afford it. It doesn’t matter, but the Apple keyboard is something that I

64 00:08:29,760 –> 00:08:34,480 basically have a problem with. Sorry. Got sides right there, but a little bit of trivia.

65 00:08:34,480 –> 00:08:41,040 So when you hear that keyboard, that’s my keyboard. It’s a DAS actually, D-A-S keyboard.

66 00:08:41,040 –> 00:08:47,600 And it’s an old style. If you looked at it, it looked like a kind of the old school IBM

67 00:08:47,600 –> 00:08:57,200 XT or whatever they called them keyboards. Big keys, springs, real actual springs that depress

68 00:08:57,200 –> 00:09:06,960 when you press the key. Sorry. Mining update. So I did complete a month and I did some figures,

69 00:09:07,840 –> 00:09:14,640 which I wanted to share with y’all. And I’m going to kind of, so I have two miners. They both run

70 00:09:14,640 –> 00:09:22,560 at 104 tera hash. They’re S 19 J pros. I think is the model. I can look it up real quick to make

71 00:09:22,560 –> 00:09:29,920 sure I’m telling you the right thing. Yes, it’s an S 19 J pro. So if you’re curious, you can look

72 00:09:29,920 –> 00:09:37,280 that up. They both produce 104 tera hash. So combined tera hash should be around 208,

73 00:09:37,280 –> 00:09:45,120 which is roughly what I’ve observed. I’m using the brains B-R-A-I-I-N-S mining pool.

74 00:09:45,120 –> 00:09:49,520 It’s actually one of the oldest, if not the oldest, I think it may be the oldest

75 00:09:49,520 –> 00:09:58,080 mining pool around at this point. And I would like to explore, they have some firmware updates for

76 00:09:58,080 –> 00:10:07,280 the amp miner S 19 J unit that should improve the performance by about 10%. If I can get my

77 00:10:07,280 –> 00:10:13,920 mining company kaboom racks to install those. So for the same wattage, for the same

78 00:10:15,520 –> 00:10:23,840 power that the server uses, it should be more efficient. I don’t honestly know how that happens.

79 00:10:23,920 –> 00:10:28,960 I don’t know what efficiencies, how they’re managing that. I have not dug into it that

80 00:10:28,960 –> 00:10:34,880 deeply, but it should improve it by about 10%, which means each one of these units would then

81 00:10:34,880 –> 00:10:42,800 be getting around 112 or so tera hash, which doesn’t sound like a whole lot, but it adds up,

82 00:10:42,800 –> 00:10:49,440 especially if you have a much larger pool. And 10% is nothing to sneeze at. That means

83 00:10:50,240 –> 00:10:54,720 if I were to run these long enough to mine a Bitcoin, which I don’t know if they’ll

84 00:10:54,720 –> 00:11:00,160 last that long, the typical unit like this should last about four years before it’s no longer useful,

85 00:11:01,760 –> 00:11:08,880 not efficient enough to mine at that point, essentially. I don’t know, I should be actually

86 00:11:08,880 –> 00:11:15,280 in total for both of them around one Bitcoin, if I’ve done my math correctly. And things proceed as

87 00:11:15,280 –> 00:11:20,880 I would like them to, which I have no control over, of course, but let’s say I did that.

88 00:11:20,880 –> 00:11:28,080 Well, that’s 0.1 Bitcoin, which is even today is $2,000. So it’s a lot of money

89 00:11:28,800 –> 00:11:32,560 that we’re really talking about. So that’s something that I’m working on.

90 00:11:33,520 –> 00:11:42,480 Here’s the way it broke down. I mined at the time that it was mined so roughly in the $27,000 range

91 00:11:43,280 –> 00:11:53,440 about $300 and no, right at $400. It was right at $400. That’s what it was.

92 00:11:55,360 –> 00:12:02,560 So $400 in value that I mined with the two units. So you could break it down at $200

93 00:12:02,560 –> 00:12:12,400 for each unit if you want to look at it that way. The hosting fee was $363 this year.

94 00:12:12,480 –> 00:12:18,480 That’s what they got. Now, I also had a $13 fee because of the way that I sent it because we didn’t

95 00:12:18,480 –> 00:12:31,120 have an ACH set up. I consider that to be part of it. So $376. So I made roughly $25 on the two units,

96 00:12:31,120 –> 00:12:37,440 which isn’t very much, especially considering the cost of the units. So that’s discouraging.

97 00:12:38,400 –> 00:12:40,240 Now, two factors.

98 00:12:43,200 –> 00:12:48,400 Factor number one, given what I’m understanding at this point about the miners

99 00:12:49,040 –> 00:12:55,840 and my background as a system administrator, I believe that easily with the proper tooling,

100 00:12:55,840 –> 00:13:00,000 one person could manage a thousand miners. Now, that sounds like an extremely

101 00:13:00,720 –> 00:13:06,320 great deal of servers, but if you have the right skill set and the right tools, that is possible.

102 00:13:07,440 –> 00:13:18,160 So if you take $12 times $1,000, that’s $12,000 per month. Now, does that cover the unit costs

103 00:13:18,160 –> 00:13:24,320 themselves? No, obviously it does not. That’s purely the hosting slash electricity cost.

104 00:13:26,000 –> 00:13:35,040 So the reality is, I think I told you this, I spent $1,774 or so, 76, something like that.

105 00:13:36,000 –> 00:13:41,360 It was somewhere right around there per unit to buy the unit itself. After four years,

106 00:13:41,360 –> 00:13:48,320 I might be able to sell it for a few hundred dollars. So that’s item number one, which means

107 00:13:48,320 –> 00:13:56,960 essentially I have to calculate that into the price as part of my loss, essentially.

108 00:13:56,960 –> 00:14:04,880 Now, at $12 a month, you can’t do that. I mean, what is that? $12, you can do the math real quick.

109 00:14:04,880 –> 00:14:17,040 $12 times 12, 144, of course, times four, which means in a four-year time span, $576,

110 00:14:17,040 –> 00:14:18,880 which essentially means no profit.

111 00:14:18,880 –> 00:14:25,280 But what this doesn’t account for is Bitcoin going up or down in price. Now, as we will talk

112 00:14:25,280 –> 00:14:32,000 about tonight, I believe we are at the bottom or near the bottom or whatever you want to call it

113 00:14:32,000 –> 00:14:41,840 of this cycle. So it’s only going to go up from here. And sorry, my dog is barking. And as the

114 00:14:42,000 –> 00:14:51,040 price of Bitcoin moves up, the Bitcoin that I hold becomes more valuable. So if we were only to go

115 00:14:51,040 –> 00:15:01,360 back up to $70,000 at the top of the next cycle, then we’re looking at roughly three times. So that

116 00:15:01,360 –> 00:15:09,600 $12 per unit then becomes $24, $36 per month. So that becomes a little more palatable. You can

117 00:15:09,600 –> 00:15:16,400 figure that out. But what I have, and I was expecting this essentially to be a little bit

118 00:15:16,400 –> 00:15:22,400 more complicated, but I’m going to go ahead and do that. So I’m going to go ahead and do that.

119 00:15:22,880 –> 00:15:32,480 You can figure that out. But what I have, and I was expecting this, essentially, I knew that

120 00:15:33,680 –> 00:15:40,560 this is not a high-profit business. I think there will be time periods when the margin gets better.

121 00:15:42,640 –> 00:15:47,680 But you’re not going to buy one miner and become rich on it. Now,

122 00:15:47,680 –> 00:15:52,440 Now, I’m not doing this really as a business, I am, but I’m not, if that makes sense.

123 00:15:52,440 –> 00:15:59,380 I’m doing this as a way to support the network, I’m doing this as a way to generate more Bitcoin

124 00:15:59,380 –> 00:16:02,520 for myself that I will hold.

125 00:16:02,520 –> 00:16:10,360 I’m not looking to become rich on mining Bitcoin, but even though that’s the case, I still have

126 00:16:10,360 –> 00:16:14,520 to keep track of all this so that I make sure I’m not underwater.

127 00:16:14,520 –> 00:16:19,880 So what will happen over time is these servers, they won’t become less efficient, but there

128 00:16:19,880 –> 00:16:22,940 will be more efficient servers that come out.

129 00:16:22,940 –> 00:16:30,280 The network difficulty will get harder over time, and because of that, these servers will

130 00:16:30,280 –> 00:16:33,580 generate less Satoshis.

131 00:16:33,580 –> 00:16:36,880 So they essentially will become less efficient.

132 00:16:36,880 –> 00:16:42,720 Now, if the price of those Satoshis is going up, you know, if you have access to cheap

133 00:16:42,720 –> 00:16:50,680 power, you can still mine with S9s, which are quite ancient at this point.

134 00:16:50,680 –> 00:16:55,960 So it’s all in kind of your cost, the two costs, well, the one cost that you can really

135 00:16:55,960 –> 00:16:58,400 control is electricity.

136 00:16:58,400 –> 00:17:11,440 I pay $0.079 or cents, almost eight cents per kilowatt, which is okay.

137 00:17:11,440 –> 00:17:15,880 It’s not super expensive, but it’s not cheap.

138 00:17:15,880 –> 00:17:24,000 Eventually, I would like to get much cheaper electricity.

139 00:17:24,000 –> 00:17:30,160 If my electricity is two cents per kilowatt, well, then basically anything makes sense

140 00:17:30,160 –> 00:17:40,000 and you stack everything in there and generate Bitcoin because I’ve essentially quadrupled

141 00:17:40,000 –> 00:17:44,200 my profit because it’s one quarter of the cost for my electricity.

142 00:17:44,200 –> 00:17:46,520 I think I did that math right.

143 00:17:46,520 –> 00:17:47,520 So there you go.

144 00:17:47,520 –> 00:17:49,880 That’s all we’re going to talk about that.

145 00:17:49,880 –> 00:17:53,560 I don’t want to turn this into a Bitcoin mining podcast.

146 00:17:53,560 –> 00:17:54,880 Y’all might be bored.

147 00:17:54,880 –> 00:17:58,360 I don’t have enough experience at it.

148 00:17:58,360 –> 00:18:03,160 But that being said, if you have interest, I would certainly…

149 00:18:03,160 –> 00:18:05,760 It is a good time to buy Bitcoin miner.

150 00:18:05,760 –> 00:18:08,680 The prices are down.

151 00:18:08,680 –> 00:18:17,840 I believe that in general, electricity is going to go up.

152 00:18:17,840 –> 00:18:24,400 I have a contract with Kaboom Racks for one year that locks in the price of electricity.

153 00:18:24,400 –> 00:18:30,160 If electricity is more expensive at the end of that time in general and they have to raise

154 00:18:30,160 –> 00:18:35,920 their prices, I do believe the price of Bitcoin itself will be significantly higher as well.

155 00:18:36,120 –> 00:18:40,160 That will be okay.

156 00:18:40,160 –> 00:18:42,160 You could certainly run this at home.

157 00:18:42,160 –> 00:18:48,320 They are noisy, as I’m sure you’ve probably heard, but there are ways to mitigate that.

158 00:18:48,320 –> 00:18:55,840 But you have to pay to run it if you’re essentially plugging in a powerful microwave and running

159 00:18:55,840 –> 00:18:58,880 that microwave 24-7.

160 00:18:58,880 –> 00:19:03,720 These units are 3050 watts, if I’m not mistaken.

161 00:19:03,720 –> 00:19:09,720 I’m looking at buying one more that’s a more recent unit, actually, and I don’t recall

162 00:19:09,720 –> 00:19:11,240 the unit itself.

163 00:19:11,240 –> 00:19:19,920 It’s another Ant miner, but it’s 140 tera hash and it’s almost the exact same power,

164 00:19:19,920 –> 00:19:20,920 if I’m not mistaken.

165 00:19:20,920 –> 00:19:23,240 In fact, it might be the same power.

166 00:19:23,240 –> 00:19:30,320 So you can understand if I’m generating almost 40% more tera hash for the same power, see

167 00:19:30,320 –> 00:19:32,200 again that profit margin.

168 00:19:32,200 –> 00:19:35,600 Now the unit itself is more expensive.

169 00:19:35,600 –> 00:19:42,600 That’s the downside, but it should retain its value for significantly longer than these

170 00:19:42,600 –> 00:19:44,200 units will.

171 00:19:44,200 –> 00:19:47,280 So there’s a trade-off there.

172 00:19:47,280 –> 00:19:49,200 That’s the way it goes.

173 00:19:49,200 –> 00:19:53,160 So all right, enough about that.

174 00:19:53,160 –> 00:19:58,040 Let’s talk about the four-year cycle.

175 00:19:58,040 –> 00:20:00,080 I think this will be an interesting topic.

176 00:20:00,080 –> 00:20:03,880 This is something that has been around for a long time.

177 00:20:03,880 –> 00:20:11,400 I’ve probably even mentioned it on here before, but I felt like it was time to actually spend

178 00:20:11,400 –> 00:20:15,040 an episode and discuss it.

179 00:20:15,040 –> 00:20:20,520 So first of all, what do I mean by a four-year cycle?

180 00:20:20,520 –> 00:20:27,680 If you will recall, we have Bitcoin halvings every four years, roughly.

181 00:20:27,680 –> 00:20:31,680 It’s a certain fixed number of blocks.

182 00:20:31,680 –> 00:20:35,320 And I actually have that written down in here somewhere.

183 00:20:35,320 –> 00:20:38,040 Halvings occur every 210,000 blocks.

184 00:20:38,040 –> 00:20:39,840 So there’s a clever little play there.

185 00:20:39,840 –> 00:20:46,360 Of course, there’s 21 million Bitcoin that will be mined in total.

186 00:20:46,360 –> 00:20:49,440 Halvings occur every 210,000 blocks.

187 00:20:49,440 –> 00:20:55,240 The next halving will occur at block height of 840,000.

188 00:20:55,240 –> 00:20:59,360 And that will occur roughly in April of 2024.

189 00:20:59,360 –> 00:21:05,760 The first Bitcoin halving occurred in November, November the 28th of 2012.

190 00:21:05,760 –> 00:21:09,720 Before the halving, the block reward was 50 Bitcoin per block.

191 00:21:09,720 –> 00:21:11,360 Afterwards, it was 25.

192 00:21:11,360 –> 00:21:14,040 It halved Bitcoin per block.

193 00:21:14,040 –> 00:21:19,360 The second halving occurred on July the 9th of 2016, quote, four years later.

194 00:21:19,360 –> 00:21:22,360 Clearly, it’s not.

195 00:21:22,360 –> 00:21:26,560 And there will be a time when it won’t be four years.

196 00:21:26,560 –> 00:21:30,360 It’ll be like three years and whatever.

197 00:21:30,360 –> 00:21:32,560 And I think maybe that’ll kind of throw people off.

198 00:21:32,560 –> 00:21:36,400 Keep in mind, it’s the number of blocks, not the actual date.

199 00:21:36,400 –> 00:21:40,320 So July the 9th, 2016.

200 00:21:40,320 –> 00:21:43,680 Before the halving, the block reward was 25.

201 00:21:43,680 –> 00:21:48,240 Afterwards it was, wait for it, 12.5 Bitcoin per block.

202 00:21:48,240 –> 00:21:51,600 The third halving occurred just a couple years ago.

203 00:21:51,600 –> 00:21:59,280 Well, three years ago now almost on May the 11th of 2020.

204 00:21:59,280 –> 00:22:01,880 Before the halving, the block reward was 12.5.

205 00:22:01,880 –> 00:22:05,500 Afterwards, it was 6.25 Bitcoin per block.

206 00:22:05,500 –> 00:22:08,140 Of course, that is our current value.

207 00:22:08,140 –> 00:22:17,240 When a block is mined by any miner, we get 6.5 Bitcoin for that block.

208 00:22:17,240 –> 00:22:23,840 So that’s what, 120,000 plus a bit.

209 00:22:23,840 –> 00:22:26,120 Okay, I’m not going to do that math.

210 00:22:26,120 –> 00:22:29,200 It’s 140 something thousand.

211 00:22:29,200 –> 00:22:33,600 Okay, so the next one does occur.

212 00:22:33,600 –> 00:22:35,800 It’s going to be sometime in April or May.

213 00:22:35,800 –> 00:22:37,240 I think I’ve seen both.

214 00:22:37,240 –> 00:22:42,800 I think as we get closer, it’ll get a more definite date.

215 00:22:42,800 –> 00:22:46,380 But it does occur at block height, 840,000.

216 00:22:46,380 –> 00:22:53,140 So when I do my recordings and I either say or have it in the show notes, in fact, this

217 00:22:53,140 –> 00:22:57,700 recording is taking place at block height.

218 00:22:57,700 –> 00:22:58,700 Where did I put it?

219 00:22:58,700 –> 00:23:02,900 Oh my goodness, I’m so discompobulated this week.

220 00:23:02,900 –> 00:23:06,380 There it is, 782,674.

221 00:23:06,380 –> 00:23:09,980 The astute among you might go, but McIntosh, when are you ever organized?

222 00:23:09,980 –> 00:23:11,100 I try.

223 00:23:11,100 –> 00:23:13,140 People have their weaknesses.

224 00:23:13,140 –> 00:23:20,060 I’m at least aware of this particular one and I do things to work on that.

225 00:23:20,060 –> 00:23:26,660 But I probably shouldn’t be saying I’m disorganized, but it is a reality that it is a struggle

226 00:23:26,660 –> 00:23:28,820 for me.

227 00:23:28,820 –> 00:23:33,700 And so anyways, okay.

228 00:23:33,700 –> 00:23:34,700 So there you go.

229 00:23:34,700 –> 00:23:35,700 We’ve got our halvings.

230 00:23:35,700 –> 00:23:41,120 We’ve got the next one coming in 2024.

231 00:23:41,120 –> 00:23:48,720 And the block height will or the block reward will go from 6.25 down to 3.125.

232 00:23:48,720 –> 00:23:53,920 Yes, I think that’s correct.

233 00:23:53,920 –> 00:24:01,520 Again, we’re having it and that continues all the way out to 2140 when we reach the

234 00:24:01,520 –> 00:24:06,320 end and one day we’ll have a discussion about what happens then.

235 00:24:06,320 –> 00:24:14,060 The short answer is nobody really knows because the miners won’t continue to mine blocks

236 00:24:14,060 –> 00:24:15,600 of Bitcoin.

237 00:24:15,600 –> 00:24:19,900 There will need to be other incentives to keep these machines on the network.

238 00:24:19,900 –> 00:24:24,440 And if the machines, if the block miners aren’t on the network taking care of business, so

239 00:24:24,440 –> 00:24:27,980 to speak, then you don’t have a safe network.

240 00:24:27,980 –> 00:24:30,020 So it is an issue.

241 00:24:30,020 –> 00:24:33,420 It also happens to be more than a hundred years in the future.

242 00:24:33,420 –> 00:24:38,520 And frankly, I am quite confident that we can resolve that problem.

243 00:24:38,520 –> 00:24:43,080 There are several theories floating around about what to do.

244 00:24:43,080 –> 00:24:46,160 Okay, the halving does what?

245 00:24:46,160 –> 00:24:53,200 It provides a mechanism for a diminishing, for diminishing the rate of inflation, so

246 00:24:53,200 –> 00:24:55,560 to speak, of the Bitcoin supply.

247 00:24:55,560 –> 00:24:57,440 So what does that mean?

248 00:24:57,440 –> 00:25:01,660 We’ve got a supply of Bitcoin that’s growing.

249 00:25:01,660 –> 00:25:05,780 We’re at 19 million, whatever, I don’t know exactly.

250 00:25:05,780 –> 00:25:11,900 As these halvings occur, the amount of Bitcoin that gets mined gets lower and lower.

251 00:25:11,900 –> 00:25:16,780 That rate of inflation, in other words, how many Bitcoin are there this year versus next

252 00:25:16,780 –> 00:25:21,220 year, slows down.

253 00:25:21,940 –> 00:25:29,620 Now, if our own federal government could operate under that idea, but that’s a different story.

254 00:25:29,620 –> 00:25:34,260 Until ultimately there will be no inflation because the supply will have been reached

255 00:25:34,260 –> 00:25:40,260 to 21 million Bitcoin and there won’t be any more being mined.

256 00:25:40,260 –> 00:25:48,420 That’s why every Satoshi is precious and we shouldn’t be throwing them away.

257 00:25:48,420 –> 00:25:55,100 Historically, so it’s these halvings that give us the idea of a four-year cycle.

258 00:25:55,100 –> 00:25:59,740 Every four years, this reduction leads to a price increase.

259 00:25:59,740 –> 00:26:06,460 Historical data now that we’re already three halvings in, coming up on our fourth one,

260 00:26:06,460 –> 00:26:10,900 have given a lot of credence to that, actually.

261 00:26:10,900 –> 00:26:17,580 I’m going to be posting some trading view charts that you could take a look at that

262 00:26:17,580 –> 00:26:21,660 show how these have done in the past.

263 00:26:21,660 –> 00:26:22,880 You can be your own judge.

264 00:26:22,880 –> 00:26:24,740 You don’t have to believe me.

265 00:26:24,740 –> 00:26:34,380 You can believe the data, but what seems to happen is that when we reach a peak roughly

266 00:26:34,380 –> 00:26:38,440 every four years, we reach a bottom roughly every four years.

267 00:26:38,440 –> 00:26:40,960 You can kind of start to chart this out.

268 00:26:40,960 –> 00:26:44,520 So you see a four-year top, you see a four-year bottom.

269 00:26:44,520 –> 00:26:52,960 Now interesting thing, that top is not at the halving, which on first glance might seem

270 00:26:52,960 –> 00:26:58,160 to be the obvious location, if you want to call it that.

271 00:26:58,160 –> 00:27:00,600 Oh, we’ve reached the halving.

272 00:27:00,600 –> 00:27:04,480 Here’s our all-time high and it goes down after that.

273 00:27:04,520 –> 00:27:08,640 That’s not what we see.

274 00:27:08,640 –> 00:27:14,560 There’s kind of an inflection point when we reach that halving point, but prior to that,

275 00:27:14,560 –> 00:27:24,160 we have a build-up, we reach the halving, and then post halving, you continue to go

276 00:27:24,160 –> 00:27:28,360 up to reach that all-time high.

277 00:27:28,360 –> 00:27:35,440 You have around a two-year recovery, if you want to call it that.

278 00:27:35,440 –> 00:27:40,380 So this is when our price is low ahead of a halving.

279 00:27:40,380 –> 00:27:51,360 So if our next halving is 2024, we would go see that in 2023 and in 2022.

280 00:27:51,360 –> 00:27:57,000 And in this case, our all-time high was actually in 2021.

281 00:27:57,640 –> 00:28:03,880 Essentially, we had the bears certainly controlling 2022, so prices were down.

282 00:28:03,880 –> 00:28:10,600 And 2023, I would say so far, has looked like pretty positive.

283 00:28:10,600 –> 00:28:17,240 We’ve reached this low that we talked about, 15,000 or whatever, 600, it depends on what

284 00:28:17,240 –> 00:28:22,120 exchange you’re looking at and maybe even how closely you’re looking at the data.

285 00:28:22,240 –> 00:28:30,280 But it’s around 15,600, and that was reached at November, so that was our low.

286 00:28:30,280 –> 00:28:38,160 And I mean, if you look at this on a higher time frame, it stayed right around that level

287 00:28:38,160 –> 00:28:40,040 for the rest of the year.

288 00:28:40,040 –> 00:28:44,840 And then in January, it starts tracing upwards.

289 00:28:45,560 –> 00:28:54,120 Now, don’t put too much credence on what year, because again, it’s kind of this, it relates

290 00:28:54,120 –> 00:28:58,640 to the block number, not the date.

291 00:28:58,640 –> 00:29:02,880 So that does tend to vary a little bit.

292 00:29:02,880 –> 00:29:09,960 But of course, if those halvings occur roughly every four years, again, we’re going to have

293 00:29:09,960 –> 00:29:11,640 this four-year cycle.

294 00:29:11,640 –> 00:29:18,400 So if we spend a couple of years after the all-time high, kind of going down and then

295 00:29:18,400 –> 00:29:24,680 sideways and getting that recovery going, well, and then we spend a couple of years

296 00:29:24,680 –> 00:29:32,320 going between there, so to speak, and the next all-time high, the next top.

297 00:29:32,320 –> 00:29:33,760 Let’s go back for just a second.

298 00:29:33,760 –> 00:29:36,160 This will probably make it clear.

299 00:29:36,160 –> 00:29:41,720 So if we have two-year recovery, you got a year-long run after that, and then a year-long

300 00:29:41,720 –> 00:29:47,320 bear market, 2021 was a bullish year like 2017, and that’s true.

301 00:29:47,320 –> 00:29:50,960 We had our all-time high in 2021.

302 00:29:50,960 –> 00:29:54,640 In November, we had an all-time high in 2017.

303 00:29:54,640 –> 00:29:58,240 If I’m not mistaken, it was in December of 2017.

304 00:29:58,240 –> 00:30:00,800 It’s when Bitcoin hit $20,000.

305 00:30:00,800 –> 00:30:07,000 I remember that night distinctly, to be honest, because I was very actively trading at that

306 00:30:07,000 –> 00:30:13,120 point, and I did not believe that it was going to stop, and I didn’t sell anything.

307 00:30:13,120 –> 00:30:18,520 I’ve talked about this before, and I held onto it all as it went back down.

308 00:30:18,520 –> 00:30:20,840 Maybe not the best thing in the world to do.

309 00:30:20,840 –> 00:30:31,680 The bears have controlled 2022, and after that all-time high in 2021, and of course,

310 00:30:31,680 –> 00:30:40,640 2023, we’re only a quarter into it, essentially, three months, but it’s certainly looking promising.

311 00:30:40,640 –> 00:30:44,960 So what are we looking at as we go forward?

312 00:30:44,960 –> 00:30:50,220 We’ve got a halving date of April of 2024, so roughly one year for now, and then we will

313 00:30:50,220 –> 00:30:57,220 probably have an all-time high around the fourth quarter of 2025, according to this.

314 00:30:57,220 –> 00:31:03,100 I would argue possibly November, although it’s certainly way too early to be saying

315 00:31:03,100 –> 00:31:05,420 stuff like that.

316 00:31:05,420 –> 00:31:10,500 It would be funny if it were Thanksgiving Day of 2025 here in the United States.

317 00:31:10,500 –> 00:31:14,240 It’s the fourth Thursday of November.

318 00:31:14,240 –> 00:31:15,900 This may be a little confusing.

319 00:31:15,900 –> 00:31:19,720 If you look at a chart, this is a point where I would love to have video.

320 00:31:19,720 –> 00:31:21,400 It would help this a lot.

321 00:31:21,400 –> 00:31:23,940 I’m going to post a couple of charts on Twitter.

322 00:31:23,940 –> 00:31:24,940 You can take a look.

323 00:31:24,940 –> 00:31:32,600 I’ll put them on Mastodon and Noster maybe as well, and if you follow me on those accounts,

324 00:31:32,600 –> 00:31:34,680 then you can take a look at that.

325 00:31:34,680 –> 00:31:38,400 But you will see the data, you’ll see the lows, you’ll see the highs.

326 00:31:38,400 –> 00:31:43,600 One of them has what they call an accumulation zone marked out as well, and I find that to

327 00:31:43,600 –> 00:31:47,680 be very helpful, and this is what I was talking about.

328 00:31:48,120 –> 00:31:50,000 Yes, I want you to do DCA.

329 00:31:50,000 –> 00:31:55,840 If you’re putting $5 a day, if you’re putting $100 a week, I don’t know what your investments

330 00:31:55,840 –> 00:31:56,840 are.

331 00:31:56,840 –> 00:32:01,480 That’s your business, not mine, but you need to be doing that, and I believe that you need

332 00:32:01,480 –> 00:32:07,120 to be doing that on a daily basis, even if it’s a very small amount.

333 00:32:07,120 –> 00:32:14,520 But there are, I would say inarguably, better times to buy Bitcoin.

334 00:32:14,520 –> 00:32:23,000 Would you rather buy Bitcoin when it’s at $15,000 to $20,000 to maybe $30,000 even,

335 00:32:23,000 –> 00:32:28,780 or would you rather buy it at $60,000 to $120,000?

336 00:32:28,780 –> 00:32:31,260 You tell me.

337 00:32:31,260 –> 00:32:37,600 We FOMO in at the top, FOMO means fear of missing out, because the excitement is so

338 00:32:37,600 –> 00:32:45,120 much, but that is literally the worst time to buy Bitcoin, to hold it, if that’s your

339 00:32:45,120 –> 00:32:48,120 goal.

340 00:32:48,120 –> 00:32:53,120 Do I want to be buying Bitcoin at $69,000 like it when it hit the last all-time high?

341 00:32:53,120 –> 00:33:01,640 No, because it won’t be back at that point for probably a little bit longer, okay?

342 00:33:01,640 –> 00:33:04,920 And until we reach that point, it’s not even breakeven.

343 00:33:04,920 –> 00:33:09,520 If I sold it, which of course I wouldn’t be, but if I sold it, it would be at a loss.

344 00:33:09,520 –> 00:33:13,480 The best time to buy is these accumulation zones.

345 00:33:13,480 –> 00:33:21,560 This time frame, this roughly 18 months or so, during this downturn, that’s when you

346 00:33:21,560 –> 00:33:22,920 don’t want to buy at the top.

347 00:33:22,920 –> 00:33:27,520 You don’t want to buy at $50,000 if we’re looking at the last one.

348 00:33:27,520 –> 00:33:31,440 You probably don’t want to buy at $40,000, but you want to start feeding in, am I buying

349 00:33:31,440 –> 00:33:32,440 at $30,000?

350 00:33:32,440 –> 00:33:33,440 Am I buying?

351 00:33:33,440 –> 00:33:34,440 I’ll buy a little more at $20,000.

352 00:33:34,440 –> 00:33:35,880 I don’t know what’s going to keep going down.

353 00:33:35,880 –> 00:33:42,120 I want to buy a little extra at $19,000, $18,000, $15,000.

354 00:33:42,120 –> 00:33:44,000 Hey, that looks pretty good.

355 00:33:44,000 –> 00:33:46,400 This might be our bottom.

356 00:33:46,400 –> 00:33:52,740 I might up my DCA instead once I’ve reached this accumulation zone so that instead of

357 00:33:52,740 –> 00:33:59,620 buying $5 every day, I’m buying $7 or $10 because you will buy more Sats with your money

358 00:33:59,620 –> 00:34:07,140 during that zone, and in the end, you will end up with more satoshis and more Bitcoin.

359 00:34:07,140 –> 00:34:12,300 And that, in my frame of mind, is the goal.

360 00:34:12,300 –> 00:34:16,620 Now, will this ever end?

361 00:34:16,620 –> 00:34:18,040 That’s a good question.

362 00:34:18,040 –> 00:34:19,900 We don’t know.

363 00:34:19,900 –> 00:34:23,020 This may go from now until 2140.

364 00:34:23,020 –> 00:34:29,580 There may be a four-year cycle as Bitcoin reduces supply every four years.

365 00:34:29,580 –> 00:34:31,240 It is certainly possible.

366 00:34:31,240 –> 00:34:37,280 There was a theory called the super cycle theory floating around during the last bull

367 00:34:37,280 –> 00:34:45,100 run that basically said the four-year cycle is dead and we’re going to go past.

368 00:34:45,100 –> 00:34:46,340 We’re not going to go down.

369 00:34:46,340 –> 00:34:49,100 There’s too much going on and so on and so forth.

370 00:34:49,100 –> 00:34:54,380 And to an extent, to be honest, I bought into it and I should not have, and I kind of kicked

371 00:34:54,380 –> 00:34:57,380 myself that I did.

372 00:34:57,380 –> 00:35:05,140 But I would say until proven otherwise, I would continue to use this as guidance.

373 00:35:05,140 –> 00:35:08,380 So one of the things that I’m going to do over the coming weeks is I’m going to chart

374 00:35:08,380 –> 00:35:18,060 out for the next few years, like I said, maybe this 2025 date, and until I’m proven otherwise,

375 00:35:18,060 –> 00:35:22,940 when we get to that fourth quarter of 2025, where it should be, according to the four-year

376 00:35:23,500 –> 00:35:31,980 cycle, the all-time high, and in 2026, first quarter and we’re higher, and then in the

377 00:35:31,980 –> 00:35:36,420 second quarter, we’re higher, I’m going to be going at that point, well, maybe the four-year

378 00:35:36,420 –> 00:35:38,600 cycle is broken.

379 00:35:38,600 –> 00:35:43,700 But until that happens, I will not believe it anymore.

380 00:35:43,700 –> 00:35:51,140 So three times, three halvings in these three, four-year cycles does not make a law, if you

381 00:35:51,140 –> 00:35:52,460 want to call it that.

382 00:35:52,460 –> 00:35:56,420 But it’s strong evidence that something might be going on here.

383 00:35:56,420 –> 00:35:57,420 Does that make sense?

384 00:35:57,420 –> 00:36:02,220 I don’t want you betting the farm on this, and I don’t want you, I don’t even want you

385 00:36:02,220 –> 00:36:03,460 speculating on this.

386 00:36:03,460 –> 00:36:09,620 I just want you to view this as a useful tool, as a way to, to what?

387 00:36:09,620 –> 00:36:15,220 Stack more Sats, stack sackers, right?

388 00:36:15,220 –> 00:36:18,220 Every start of the episode, what do I say?

389 00:36:18,300 –> 00:36:22,700 I want you Sats, stackers, welcome sats, stackers, whatever it is that I say.

390 00:36:22,700 –> 00:36:29,060 I want you stacking Sats, and I want you to do it in the most efficient way that you’re

391 00:36:29,060 –> 00:36:35,100 not having to stare at a chart every day and say, wow, it’s up, you know, this little bit.

392 00:36:35,100 –> 00:36:40,540 So I’ll wait till it pulls back and that doesn’t work real well.

393 00:36:40,540 –> 00:36:46,260 But if you zoom out, if we look at the longer term, I think we will find that there are

394 00:36:46,300 –> 00:36:48,260 more efficient places.

395 00:36:48,260 –> 00:36:52,020 And again, I’m not saying you need to stop DCAing.

396 00:36:52,020 –> 00:36:53,820 I believe in DCAing.

397 00:36:53,820 –> 00:36:56,100 If nothing else, you should be DCAing.

398 00:36:56,100 –> 00:37:00,980 If you do not understand what I’m saying after doing this and looking at these charts, then

399 00:37:00,980 –> 00:37:03,180 just continue to DCA.

400 00:37:03,180 –> 00:37:04,840 Don’t worry about it.

401 00:37:04,840 –> 00:37:10,420 If you do that long enough, Bitcoin has a 10 year, no longer than that.

402 00:37:10,420 –> 00:37:12,700 How long has Bitcoin been around?

403 00:37:13,140 –> 00:37:17,700 13 years, 14 years track record of going up.

404 00:37:17,700 –> 00:37:20,820 And I would continue to believe that.

405 00:37:20,820 –> 00:37:28,140 If Bitcoin ever goes to zero, then it’s probably because the world has turned into a place

406 00:37:28,140 –> 00:37:30,860 that, frankly, I don’t even want to talk about.

407 00:37:30,860 –> 00:37:34,060 So I’m going to continue to stack Sats.

408 00:37:34,060 –> 00:37:36,060 I’m going to.

409 00:37:36,060 –> 00:37:41,860 So I hope that makes sense.

410 00:37:42,020 –> 00:37:48,540 Anyways, if you look at this chart, there’s about an 18 month period, not really two years.

411 00:37:48,540 –> 00:37:50,940 It is a two year, you can.

412 00:37:50,940 –> 00:37:54,580 It makes sense to talk about kind of a two year up and a two year down.

413 00:37:54,580 –> 00:38:01,060 But there is an 18 month period that ends about two months after the halving.

414 00:38:01,060 –> 00:38:02,980 That’s the best time to accumulate.

415 00:38:02,980 –> 00:38:09,820 And what that means is actually between now and July of 2024 is the best time for accumulation.

416 00:38:09,820 –> 00:38:11,460 It started a few months ago.

417 00:38:11,460 –> 00:38:16,340 I would argue it started when we hit that low, right?

418 00:38:16,340 –> 00:38:24,620 Whenever that was, I keep forgetting, middle of November, November the 20th of last year.

419 00:38:24,620 –> 00:38:31,940 And it will go out for about 18 months until a couple of months after the next halving.

420 00:38:31,940 –> 00:38:37,940 And you can look at the data from the last halving and the halving, it’s the same.

421 00:38:37,940 –> 00:38:38,940 Prices aren’t the same.

422 00:38:39,420 –> 00:38:43,860 Accumulations on that 18 month time period is as accurate as you’re going to be able

423 00:38:43,860 –> 00:38:49,380 to get until it changes, if it ever does.

424 00:38:49,380 –> 00:38:50,740 So there you go.

425 00:38:50,740 –> 00:38:52,220 I’m not predicting the price.

426 00:38:52,220 –> 00:38:54,900 I’m not telling you Bitcoin is going to get to 100,000.

427 00:38:54,900 –> 00:38:56,180 It’s going to get to 250.

428 00:38:56,180 –> 00:38:59,220 It’s going to get to a million dollars in the next 90 days.

429 00:38:59,220 –> 00:39:06,260 Like that person on Twitter is saying, because of our country going to doing everything they

430 00:39:06,340 –> 00:39:11,020 can to mess up the economy and we’ll talk about that in the news in just a second.

431 00:39:11,020 –> 00:39:16,060 But that’s just, it just is, that’s just the best time to accumulate.

432 00:39:16,060 –> 00:39:17,900 So keep that in mind.

433 00:39:17,900 –> 00:39:19,900 Whatever I’m not going to tell you what to do.

434 00:39:19,900 –> 00:39:25,380 Maybe you double your DCA, whatever you do, that is up to you.

435 00:39:25,380 –> 00:39:27,940 But this is the time to be accumulating.

436 00:39:27,940 –> 00:39:30,940 And don’t let anybody talk you into anything different.

437 00:39:30,940 –> 00:39:33,900 Don’t, don’t, I’ve been very careful.

438 00:39:33,900 –> 00:39:42,180 I’ve said, even when I’ve talked about, I thought it would go lower than 15,000 or whatever.

439 00:39:42,180 –> 00:39:44,540 I thought it, I thought it would get down to 12,000.

440 00:39:44,540 –> 00:39:49,660 I was reasonably close, but still I’m over here saying 12,000.

441 00:39:49,660 –> 00:39:56,100 Don’t let people talk you into, well, it’s going to get down to X, whatever X is, 12,

442 00:39:56,100 –> 00:39:59,660 10, 5, 1,000.

443 00:39:59,660 –> 00:40:00,660 Don’t do that.

444 00:40:00,660 –> 00:40:02,740 Look at the overall picture.

445 00:40:02,740 –> 00:40:04,180 Maybe it gets down there.

446 00:40:04,180 –> 00:40:05,180 Maybe it doesn’t.

447 00:40:05,180 –> 00:40:09,420 I hope I’ve been very clear saying you should DCA.

448 00:40:09,420 –> 00:40:15,540 I also have said if it gets down to that point, I’m going to take everything I can and, and

449 00:40:15,540 –> 00:40:21,340 shove it into Bitcoin at that point, because I don’t think it’s going to get any lower.

450 00:40:21,340 –> 00:40:26,980 Well, I guess you could argue I missed that bet, except I’ve still got a window between

451 00:40:26,980 –> 00:40:33,460 now and July of 2024 to keep accumulating, to keep putting Bitcoin miners on.

452 00:40:33,460 –> 00:40:42,300 By the way, you can, I believe, see the same cycle in Bitcoin mining.

453 00:40:42,300 –> 00:40:49,700 When Bitcoin is $69,000 like it was at the last all time high, what did we see?

454 00:40:49,700 –> 00:40:57,700 We saw mining prices that were just off the charts.

455 00:40:57,700 –> 00:41:04,180 So you could certainly make the argument that kind of the mining prices, it’s a good time

456 00:41:04,180 –> 00:41:07,180 to accumulate if you’re buying miners, right?

457 00:41:07,180 –> 00:41:13,500 After the halving, at least shortly after the halving, not a good time to accumulate.

458 00:41:13,500 –> 00:41:16,060 Prices will be going up.

459 00:41:16,060 –> 00:41:19,060 I don’t know why they do it.

460 00:41:19,060 –> 00:41:25,140 It’s supply and demand, I guess, because as price goes up, everybody’s like, oh, I want

461 00:41:25,140 –> 00:41:26,140 to mine.

462 00:41:26,140 –> 00:41:28,100 Nobody wants to mine when it’s not profitable.

463 00:41:28,100 –> 00:41:33,940 They want to mine, or perceived as not profitable, and I guess you could say it isn’t, but my

464 00:41:33,940 –> 00:41:38,780 miners are in place and they’re mining and they’re stacking SATs so that when we pass

465 00:41:38,780 –> 00:41:42,780 that all time high next time, my miners are already there.

466 00:41:42,780 –> 00:41:44,340 You see what I’m saying?

467 00:41:44,340 –> 00:41:48,020 I’m already stacking SATs that are going up in price.

468 00:41:48,020 –> 00:41:53,580 I won’t be buying miners when the Bitcoin price is at the top.

469 00:41:53,580 –> 00:41:58,780 I’ll buy them just like I did when it’s near the bottom.

470 00:41:58,780 –> 00:41:59,780 Does that make sense?

471 00:41:59,780 –> 00:42:02,320 I believe it probably does.

472 00:42:02,320 –> 00:42:07,180 If you followed the other four-year cycle, then this is just, it’s very much the same

473 00:42:07,180 –> 00:42:08,500 thing.

474 00:42:08,500 –> 00:42:13,900 So again, I don’t want to turn this into a mining podcast, but if you were thinking about

475 00:42:13,900 –> 00:42:25,220 doing that between now and July 2024, it’s probably the best time to do that.

476 00:42:25,220 –> 00:42:31,180 And if you know that you’re going to do it, I would encourage you, you know, Bitcoin may

477 00:42:31,180 –> 00:42:39,220 be, we may already be near all time highs at 2024, July, and subsequently prices are

478 00:42:39,460 –> 00:42:44,340 already higher for mining equipment.

479 00:42:44,340 –> 00:42:49,740 I’ve watched, I bought mine very near the low, I think.

480 00:42:49,740 –> 00:42:54,660 I’ve already watched prices creep up on them, at least on Kaboom Racks Marketplace.

481 00:42:54,660 –> 00:43:01,460 Granted, that’s a single place, but it’s also fairly busy.

482 00:43:01,460 –> 00:43:05,600 And I think they have a fairly accurate view of the market.

483 00:43:05,600 –> 00:43:14,080 So I’ve watched the prices go up on my particular miner, about a hundred dollars.

484 00:43:14,080 –> 00:43:19,600 So you do see that as time goes by and Bitcoin price rises, the miners get more expensive

485 00:43:19,600 –> 00:43:21,480 as well.

486 00:43:21,480 –> 00:43:25,280 So again, I’m not trying to predict the price.

487 00:43:25,280 –> 00:43:29,680 I’m just trying to show you a pattern.

488 00:43:29,680 –> 00:43:34,240 Pattern recognition is very important if you’re trying to figure this stuff out.

489 00:43:34,240 –> 00:43:35,680 And this is a definite pattern.

490 00:43:35,680 –> 00:43:37,040 Now, will it remain forever?

491 00:43:37,040 –> 00:43:40,080 I don’t know.

492 00:43:40,080 –> 00:43:47,400 And by the way, on that higher timeframe, probably of at least weekly, you can combine

493 00:43:47,400 –> 00:43:48,720 that with other indicators.

494 00:43:48,720 –> 00:43:54,600 I saw, in fact, I think it’s one of these charts I’m posting, there’s an RSI indicator

495 00:43:54,600 –> 00:43:56,400 showing the exact same pattern.

496 00:43:56,400 –> 00:43:58,040 It’s crazy.

497 00:43:58,040 –> 00:44:03,520 You got the highs at the top, you got the lows at the bottom, you got, it’s, I don’t

498 00:44:04,000 –> 00:44:08,560 I know a lot of y’all don’t necessarily believe in all these indicators and whatever.

499 00:44:08,560 –> 00:44:14,280 And I will say that sometimes it can be very difficult to understand.

500 00:44:14,280 –> 00:44:17,540 The problem is it’s not a hundred percent, it’s just not.

501 00:44:17,540 –> 00:44:24,080 You can say, well, 66% of the time it’s going to break up versus down here.

502 00:44:24,080 –> 00:44:28,760 So it’s messy, if you want to call it that anyways.

503 00:44:28,800 –> 00:44:35,680 I think if you look at this overall view, you will find a very clear pattern that you

504 00:44:35,680 –> 00:44:38,880 can use really in a very, you can just jot down some dates.

505 00:44:38,880 –> 00:44:41,400 Hey, I’m going to buy my Bitcoin between here and here.

506 00:44:41,400 –> 00:44:49,040 I already said, according to what I’m seeing, do your own research, look at the chart.

507 00:44:49,040 –> 00:44:54,080 Between now and July of 2024 is going to be your best accumulation period.

508 00:44:54,080 –> 00:45:02,280 And I did not realize actually, to be honest, I knew just because I’ve been around long

509 00:45:02,280 –> 00:45:09,800 enough that the time period up to the halving, I actually figured out I’ll kind of do this

510 00:45:09,800 –> 00:45:16,320 more up to that maybe a month or two before that halving.

511 00:45:16,320 –> 00:45:21,640 This actually shows that really it actually goes a couple months afterwards.

512 00:45:21,960 –> 00:45:24,760 There’s very clear data there to show to back that up.

513 00:45:24,760 –> 00:45:27,280 So I would not discount that.

514 00:45:27,280 –> 00:45:28,920 All right.

515 00:45:28,920 –> 00:45:36,040 So let’s talk about our supporters that time.

516 00:45:36,040 –> 00:45:39,000 Berno, I want to give you credit, brother or sister.

517 00:45:39,000 –> 00:45:40,880 I have no idea.

518 00:45:40,880 –> 00:45:48,000 He sent in, they sent in, they sent in a 100 sat boost and said, keep on McIntosh the

519 00:45:48,000 –> 00:45:48,800 way it’s paved.

520 00:45:48,960 –> 00:45:58,000 This was talking about Ceceo plebes stopped using their system last week’s podcast, which

521 00:45:58,000 –> 00:46:03,760 I feel like, quite honestly, is one of the most important ones that I’ve ever recorded.

522 00:46:03,760 –> 00:46:06,400 I try not to be dramatic.

523 00:46:06,400 –> 00:46:09,920 I try not to deal in hyperbole.

524 00:46:09,920 –> 00:46:13,400 And you may view what I said last week as hyperbole.

525 00:46:13,400 –> 00:46:16,160 I do believe it.

526 00:46:16,160 –> 00:46:22,280 I do not know the timeframe, although sometimes I wonder if it’s not going to be sooner rather

527 00:46:22,280 –> 00:46:23,280 than later.

528 00:46:23,280 –> 00:46:24,280 It may be 10 years.

529 00:46:24,280 –> 00:46:25,360 It may be 20 years.

530 00:46:25,360 –> 00:46:26,880 It may be my children’s lifetime.

531 00:46:26,880 –> 00:46:29,640 I may never even see it.

532 00:46:29,640 –> 00:46:32,720 But I look at the data and I don’t understand how else it’s coming.

533 00:46:32,720 –> 00:46:43,160 And I continue to see the governmental, I don’t even want to say regulations, but you

534 00:46:43,200 –> 00:46:49,000 know, the governmental situation that in my opinion, regardless of whether they’re Democrat

535 00:46:49,000 –> 00:46:57,120 or Republican here in our country, conservative or liberal, if you want to put it that way,

536 00:46:57,120 –> 00:46:58,800 it doesn’t seem to matter.

537 00:46:58,800 –> 00:47:01,720 So that’s just my opinion.

538 00:47:01,720 –> 00:47:07,440 If you missed that, I would encourage you to go back and listen to it.

539 00:47:07,440 –> 00:47:10,720 And I hope it at least is food for thought.

540 00:47:10,880 –> 00:47:13,120 So I don’t know.

541 00:47:13,120 –> 00:47:17,560 But Berno was our supporter for the week.

542 00:47:17,560 –> 00:47:20,360 I appreciate that, Berno.

543 00:47:20,360 –> 00:47:24,560 And so now we will go into our news.

544 00:47:24,560 –> 00:47:31,320 Of course, you can follow me on Twitter at McIntoshFintech, on Twitter.

545 00:47:31,320 –> 00:47:38,840 I am on Mastodon at macintoshpodcastindex.social.

546 00:47:38,920 –> 00:47:40,160 I’m also on Noster.

547 00:47:40,160 –> 00:47:45,440 My pubkey is on my Twitter account because it’s not an easy, you just need to go copy

548 00:47:45,440 –> 00:47:50,360 it if you’re experimenting with Noster.

549 00:47:50,360 –> 00:48:00,800 On March the 17th, actually, I missed this last week, but they, the Fed, the Federal

550 00:48:00,800 –> 00:48:08,120 Reserve in one week, in one week, reversed roughly half of all the quantitative tightening

551 00:48:08,120 –> 00:48:11,200 it accomplished over the prior year.

552 00:48:11,200 –> 00:48:12,920 That’s how quickly this can change.

553 00:48:12,920 –> 00:48:18,480 So quantitative tightening is when they basically tighten up the money supply, they don’t spend

554 00:48:18,480 –> 00:48:23,320 so much, they buy back some of their debt, whatever.

555 00:48:23,320 –> 00:48:25,280 Quantitative easing is the exact opposite.

556 00:48:25,280 –> 00:48:30,840 And because of these banking failures that we have seen and are continuing to see, and

557 00:48:30,840 –> 00:48:37,120 we will see down the road, they are starting to spend money again.

558 00:48:37,120 –> 00:48:42,360 Like those drunken sailors that I mentioned last week, and I kind of want to quit making

559 00:48:42,360 –> 00:48:48,360 that analogy because the drunken sailors stopped spending money when they ran out of money

560 00:48:48,360 –> 00:48:50,120 and ran out of credit card.

561 00:48:50,120 –> 00:48:53,800 The Fed doesn’t have to do that.

562 00:48:53,800 –> 00:48:58,000 So they are printing money for bailouts.

563 00:48:58,000 –> 00:49:00,160 Inflation is still hot.

564 00:49:00,160 –> 00:49:12,160 In fact, this week we saw a 0.25 percent raise in our inflation or our interest rate for

565 00:49:12,160 –> 00:49:17,560 central banks here in the United States.

566 00:49:17,560 –> 00:49:23,800 It’s a situation that I think will not end well.

567 00:49:23,800 –> 00:49:29,000 One of the things that Janet Yellen goes back and forth on is if they’re going to actually

568 00:49:29,000 –> 00:49:30,320 protect all the banks.

569 00:49:30,320 –> 00:49:36,040 So I posted about this last week, if I’m not mistaken.

570 00:49:36,040 –> 00:49:42,720 One of the representatives or senators from Oklahoma asked her directly, well, what about

571 00:49:42,720 –> 00:49:43,720 my bank?

572 00:49:43,720 –> 00:49:50,420 What about the community bank here in rural Oklahoma that’s not Bank of America or JPMorgan

573 00:49:50,420 –> 00:49:56,680 that you have said we will not allow to fail because there’s too much systemic risk?

574 00:49:56,680 –> 00:50:00,760 Well, what about the credit union on the street corner?

575 00:50:00,760 –> 00:50:06,200 And at one point she said, well, in a political way, she said, we’re not going to we’re not

576 00:50:06,200 –> 00:50:07,200 going to do that.

577 00:50:07,200 –> 00:50:10,160 We’ll do the FDIC limit and that’s it.

578 00:50:10,160 –> 00:50:17,520 If you have more than 250,000, I was mistaken last week, I said 100,000, 250,000 in your

579 00:50:17,520 –> 00:50:20,640 account, then that’s just lost.

580 00:50:20,640 –> 00:50:26,280 Now she’s come back probably because of the backlash on that says, well, we’ll think about

581 00:50:26,280 –> 00:50:31,680 that, you know, they’ll do it until they run out of money.

582 00:50:31,680 –> 00:50:35,560 I just don’t know which is going to happen first or we’re going to run out of money.

583 00:50:35,560 –> 00:50:41,700 Are the banks going to stop failing or are what’s going to happen?

584 00:50:41,700 –> 00:50:45,120 And by the way, I don’t want to go too deep into why these banks are failing.

585 00:50:45,120 –> 00:50:47,400 There’s other podcasts who are doing a good job of that.

586 00:50:47,400 –> 00:50:53,360 It’s kind of outside the scope, but the banks have been forced essentially into buying bonds

587 00:50:53,400 –> 00:51:00,600 from the US government in larger amounts because supposedly these were a safe investment.

588 00:51:00,600 –> 00:51:07,800 In fact, people will say, well, that’s the safest form of investment that you can make.

589 00:51:07,800 –> 00:51:14,400 And then the interest rates spiked up unexpectedly, quote unexpectedly.

590 00:51:14,400 –> 00:51:23,040 We’ve raised interest rates because of inflation more in the last year or so than we ever have

591 00:51:23,040 –> 00:51:24,920 if I’m not mistaken.

592 00:51:24,920 –> 00:51:29,760 And actually that inverted the yield was what they call it on the bonds.

593 00:51:29,760 –> 00:51:34,360 And that actually meant if a bank needed to sell those for whatever reason, they were

594 00:51:34,360 –> 00:51:36,680 worth less than they bought them for.

595 00:51:36,680 –> 00:51:39,820 And we’re talking about billions of dollars in some cases.

596 00:51:39,820 –> 00:51:45,180 That’s actually what happened with Silicon Valley Bank.

597 00:51:45,180 –> 00:51:53,000 They were forced to sell bonds and then they told people that they sold those bonds and

598 00:51:53,240 –> 00:51:55,880 that actually started their bank run.

599 00:51:55,880 –> 00:52:02,960 So people started withdrawing money, but they were down significantly because of that sale.

600 00:52:02,960 –> 00:52:07,400 It’s kind of like buying Bitcoin at 69,000 and selling at 15,000, right?

601 00:52:07,400 –> 00:52:09,760 That’s not what you want to do, obviously.

602 00:52:09,760 –> 00:52:11,760 You’re losing money when you do that.

603 00:52:11,760 –> 00:52:14,480 And that’s essentially what they did.

604 00:52:14,480 –> 00:52:19,020 But the Federal Reserve or the federal government actually made them do that.

605 00:52:19,020 –> 00:52:20,560 They made them buy those bonds.

606 00:52:20,560 –> 00:52:28,000 They said as part of the Frank’s Dodd Act, Dodd’s, Frank, whatever, the big Bitcoin,

607 00:52:28,000 –> 00:52:37,040 the big banking regulation act that came after our big crisis in 2008 or so, that was the

608 00:52:37,040 –> 00:52:38,040 outcome of that.

609 00:52:38,040 –> 00:52:42,440 They said, well, you got to invest more in treasury bills, T-bills.

610 00:52:42,440 –> 00:52:43,640 And they did that.

611 00:52:43,640 –> 00:52:51,080 And then they get in trouble because of the shenanigans of the last year or so.

612 00:52:51,080 –> 00:52:52,780 That’s all I’m going to go into about that.

613 00:52:52,780 –> 00:52:57,560 If you want to understand more, what is that podcast I listened to?

614 00:52:57,560 –> 00:53:00,200 It’s actually what I’ve listened to for a bit.

615 00:53:00,200 –> 00:53:04,720 He goes into some stuff that, you know, you may not be interested in, but specifically,

616 00:53:04,720 –> 00:53:07,240 of course, lately he’s been talking about this.

617 00:53:07,240 –> 00:53:12,640 It’s the Eurodollar University, I think is what it’s called podcast.

618 00:53:12,640 –> 00:53:18,080 And I know that they’ve done a pretty good coverage of this.

619 00:53:18,080 –> 00:53:19,520 It’s right up their alley.

620 00:53:19,520 –> 00:53:20,840 They never talk about Bitcoin.

621 00:53:20,840 –> 00:53:23,280 They talk about traditional economics.

622 00:53:23,280 –> 00:53:24,280 So there you go.

623 00:53:24,280 –> 00:53:29,700 Texas, the great state of Texas, and no, I do not live there, but Texas introduced a

624 00:53:29,700 –> 00:53:36,040 bill to boost the local Bitcoin economy, protect the rights of holders, miners and developers.

625 00:53:36,040 –> 00:53:42,720 So their state legislation passed a bill protecting people who code Bitcoin.

626 00:53:42,720 –> 00:53:48,920 So core developers, that kind of thing, who mine Bitcoin and who own Bitcoin, which is

627 00:53:48,920 –> 00:53:50,160 a very good thing.

628 00:53:50,160 –> 00:53:51,760 We’re starting to see other states.

629 00:53:51,760 –> 00:53:53,360 Missouri had something like this.

630 00:53:53,360 –> 00:53:55,160 I think Wyoming did as well.

631 00:53:55,160 –> 00:54:00,680 I talk about these as they come up because states rights and what people can do in that

632 00:54:00,680 –> 00:54:03,840 state in the United States, I can’t speak for other countries.

633 00:54:03,840 –> 00:54:05,720 They’re not the same as us.

634 00:54:05,720 –> 00:54:10,000 But these are very important as Bitcoin continues to grow.

635 00:54:10,000 –> 00:54:15,760 And as the government, we will see continues, in my opinion, to tighten down its view on

636 00:54:15,760 –> 00:54:21,360 cryptocurrency in general, fortunately, not Bitcoin specific.

637 00:54:21,360 –> 00:54:26,280 Russia is going to use the Chinese Yuan instead of the US dollar to settle trades with Asia,

638 00:54:26,280 –> 00:54:27,920 Africa and Latin America.

639 00:54:27,920 –> 00:54:29,820 That is actually a really big deal.

640 00:54:29,820 –> 00:54:34,760 That is the continued demonetization of the US dollar as the global reserve, and we will

641 00:54:34,800 –> 00:54:40,080 lose benefits as the US because of that.

642 00:54:40,080 –> 00:54:42,320 I’ve talked about that a number of times.

643 00:54:42,320 –> 00:54:44,960 Just another step in that.

644 00:54:44,960 –> 00:54:51,560 By the way, the Federal Reserve is launching what they call the FedNow service in July.

645 00:54:51,560 –> 00:54:59,440 And that will be, in my opinion, a precursor to a central bank digital currency by the

646 00:54:59,440 –> 00:55:00,440 United States.

647 00:55:00,440 –> 00:55:04,400 Now, the government itself would say that’s not true.

648 00:55:04,400 –> 00:55:07,000 We will see.

649 00:55:07,000 –> 00:55:08,000 We will see.

650 00:55:08,000 –> 00:55:13,560 I think it’s more important in these times than ever before that you own your own Bitcoin,

651 00:55:13,560 –> 00:55:20,920 not on an exchange, not your keys, not your Bitcoin, not your SATs.

652 00:55:20,920 –> 00:55:24,760 That just doesn’t flow quite so well.

653 00:55:24,760 –> 00:55:33,880 The President Biden, his administration published a report, the economic report of the president.

654 00:55:33,880 –> 00:55:41,520 And in fact, when they should have been worried about the actual economy of the United States,

655 00:55:41,520 –> 00:55:48,360 they took this opportunity to attack Bitcoin, attack proof of work mining, and promote a

656 00:55:48,360 –> 00:55:50,320 central bank digital currency.

657 00:55:50,320 –> 00:55:53,880 It is almost a scary read.

658 00:55:53,880 –> 00:56:00,360 I did not think that this type of legislation, well, this is not legislation, regulation

659 00:56:00,360 –> 00:56:02,960 would be coming to the United States anytime soon.

660 00:56:03,040 –> 00:56:07,960 I may be mistaken, I may unfortunately have to walk those words back if I ever actually

661 00:56:07,960 –> 00:56:09,440 did say them.

662 00:56:09,440 –> 00:56:16,480 I knew I actually said this was going to be a year of regulation, but not like this.

663 00:56:16,480 –> 00:56:17,920 That’s not really what I meant.

664 00:56:17,920 –> 00:56:22,880 I meant more along the lines of what we’re going to talk about with the SEC in just a

665 00:56:22,880 –> 00:56:24,560 few minutes.

666 00:56:24,560 –> 00:56:31,520 But if the White House comes out and if they start getting bipartisan support in Congress

667 00:56:31,520 –> 00:56:39,480 to pass legislation to say, I don’t know, proof of work mining with Bitcoin is not okay.

668 00:56:39,480 –> 00:56:42,680 You can’t do that in the boundaries of the United States.

669 00:56:42,680 –> 00:56:46,720 I think that would be a huge blow to me personally.

670 00:56:46,720 –> 00:56:49,600 I think Bitcoin would survive.

671 00:56:49,600 –> 00:56:50,600 It’s not a good report.

672 00:56:50,600 –> 00:56:56,120 I don’t think it’s well written, but you could call me biased.

673 00:56:56,720 –> 00:57:02,560 Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary, she says the economy is performing well amidst the

674 00:57:02,560 –> 00:57:04,280 current banking crisis.

675 00:57:04,280 –> 00:57:06,640 I think Ms. Yellen needs to look around.

676 00:57:06,640 –> 00:57:13,360 I think a few people, maybe a lot of people in government need to look around.

677 00:57:13,360 –> 00:57:18,040 If you had any thoughts about where we go with this banking crisis and kind of where

678 00:57:18,040 –> 00:57:23,240 it works into overall things, I thought this was a pretty good summary.

679 00:57:23,360 –> 00:57:28,280 There are three scenarios for the ongoing bank crisis and Bitcoin.

680 00:57:28,280 –> 00:57:32,040 A small chance of hyperinflation.

681 00:57:32,040 –> 00:57:35,160 There is a non-zero chance of hyperinflation in my opinion.

682 00:57:35,160 –> 00:57:37,080 I doubt it will happen.

683 00:57:37,080 –> 00:57:38,680 Not yet.

684 00:57:38,680 –> 00:57:42,560 I also think that’s the worst case scenario.

685 00:57:42,560 –> 00:57:47,520 The Federal Reserve is going to print a lot of money and get the banking crisis under

686 00:57:47,520 –> 00:57:48,520 control.

687 00:57:48,520 –> 00:57:52,640 We get high inflation, but not hyperinflation.

688 00:57:53,040 –> 00:57:54,040 This is the most likely outcome.

689 00:57:54,040 –> 00:57:55,040 I do agree.

690 00:57:55,040 –> 00:57:57,200 I think that’s exactly what will happen.

691 00:57:57,200 –> 00:58:01,000 I think we have not seen the last of our banks fail.

692 00:58:01,000 –> 00:58:06,560 I think we will see some centralization, so to speak, of banks because what happens is

693 00:58:06,560 –> 00:58:09,520 bigger banks buy little banks as they fail.

694 00:58:09,520 –> 00:58:12,120 That’s just the way that it goes.

695 00:58:12,120 –> 00:58:15,760 And I do believe we will end up with even higher inflation.

696 00:58:15,760 –> 00:58:21,240 I do not think we’ve seen the top yet, even though others do.

697 00:58:21,240 –> 00:58:26,040 That would also give us a good chance to continue Bitcoin adoption, which I think is what’s

698 00:58:26,040 –> 00:58:31,560 most important, especially because eventually I do think fiat will fail.

699 00:58:31,560 –> 00:58:34,040 I think worldwide fiat will fail.

700 00:58:34,040 –> 00:58:36,120 Maybe it doesn’t all fail in the same year.

701 00:58:36,120 –> 00:58:39,560 Maybe not even the same decade, but it will happen.

702 00:58:39,560 –> 00:58:45,400 And having more and more Bitcoin adoption will only help that transition.

703 00:58:45,480 –> 00:58:51,920 I don’t ever want to diminish people getting hurt by the failures of fiat because it is

704 00:58:51,920 –> 00:59:01,160 happening right now in third world countries because of Lebanon, 90% inflation, Argentina,

705 00:59:01,160 –> 00:59:03,120 maybe arguably not a third world country.

706 00:59:03,120 –> 00:59:04,120 I don’t know.

707 00:59:04,120 –> 00:59:07,200 I’m not sure how they’re classified.

708 00:59:07,200 –> 00:59:11,800 Regardless, over 100% inflation.

709 00:59:11,800 –> 00:59:17,960 The people that it hurts the most are the people who are the least well off.

710 00:59:17,960 –> 00:59:24,560 Regulators come down hard on Bitcoin and try and cut off on ramps and current trading,

711 00:59:24,560 –> 00:59:27,800 which means a lot of turbulence for Bitcoin for some years.

712 00:59:27,800 –> 00:59:31,640 I think that is likely.

713 00:59:31,720 –> 00:59:42,000 I think of these three things, I think B, where they print a lot of money, is 60 to

714 00:59:42,000 –> 00:59:43,240 70% likely.

715 00:59:43,240 –> 00:59:57,400 I think C is 29 to 39% likely or something like that and a 1% chance of hyperinflation.

716 00:59:57,400 –> 01:00:03,160 I think that could add up to 100, which was my goal.

717 01:00:03,160 –> 01:00:04,760 All three Bitcoin will win.

718 01:00:04,760 –> 01:00:07,920 It’s a matter of who loses.

719 01:00:07,920 –> 01:00:09,280 Bitcoin will win.

720 01:00:09,280 –> 01:00:12,040 I don’t care if the United States outlaws it.

721 01:00:12,040 –> 01:00:13,680 China outlawed Bitcoin mining.

722 01:00:13,680 –> 01:00:15,920 China outlawed people owning Bitcoin.

723 01:00:15,920 –> 01:00:18,000 Did Bitcoin blink?

724 01:00:18,000 –> 01:00:19,480 Hardly.

725 01:00:19,480 –> 01:00:26,400 Our hash rate went down almost 50%, but within a couple of months, it had recovered.

726 01:00:27,400 –> 01:00:31,960 Bitcoin doesn’t actually care, by the way, whether you live in the United States, China,

727 01:00:31,960 –> 01:00:36,600 Russia, El Salvador, Argentina, any country on earth.

728 01:00:36,600 –> 01:00:37,600 It doesn’t care.

729 01:00:37,600 –> 01:00:40,880 It has no nationality, and that is one of the things I love about it.

730 01:00:40,880 –> 01:00:41,880 All right.

731 01:00:41,880 –> 01:00:42,880 I’ll get off my rant.

732 01:00:42,880 –> 01:00:43,880 Yep.

733 01:00:43,880 –> 01:00:46,560 Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bips.

734 01:00:46,560 –> 01:00:51,280 I already said that, so now we’re up to 5%, yay us.

735 01:00:51,280 –> 01:00:53,120 And that is not inflation.

736 01:00:53,120 –> 01:01:00,400 That is our interest rates, but it is a precursor to inflation, almost certainly.

737 01:01:00,400 –> 01:01:05,840 I’ll skip that.

738 01:01:05,840 –> 01:01:10,440 The Federal Reserve, the banking system in the United States is sound and resilient.

739 01:01:10,440 –> 01:01:13,080 Well, okay.

740 01:01:13,080 –> 01:01:15,640 We will keep reducing the balance sheet as planned.

741 01:01:15,640 –> 01:01:24,360 This was on March the 22nd, and we know that in the week before that they raised the balance

742 01:01:24,360 –> 01:01:28,760 sheets by a huge amount.

743 01:01:28,760 –> 01:01:32,440 I mean, it’s not inconsequential.

744 01:01:32,440 –> 01:01:34,040 That’s just flat lying to me.

745 01:01:34,040 –> 01:01:36,600 I don’t know what else to call it.

746 01:01:36,600 –> 01:01:42,540 On March the 22nd, Janet Yellen said, we are not considering insuring all uninsured bank

747 01:01:42,540 –> 01:01:44,320 deposits down.

748 01:01:44,360 –> 01:01:47,560 I know she’s flip-flop on this at least twice.

749 01:01:47,560 –> 01:01:48,840 I don’t know.

750 01:01:48,840 –> 01:01:52,760 I don’t know where they’ll end up, and I don’t think you should depend on that either.

751 01:01:52,760 –> 01:02:00,680 Coinbase, one of the oldest exchanges that there is.

752 01:02:00,680 –> 01:02:07,760 March the 22nd, CEO of Coinbase tweeted, today, Coinbase received a Wells notice from the

753 01:02:07,760 –> 01:02:12,720 SEC focused on staking an asset listings.

754 01:02:12,720 –> 01:02:18,080 A Wells notice typically proceeds in enforcement action.

755 01:02:18,080 –> 01:02:26,080 So the SEC is not required, by the way, to do this, but they typically do.

756 01:02:26,080 –> 01:02:32,520 So what they’ve done is they’ve sent a letter saying, essentially, you’re in violation of

757 01:02:32,520 –> 01:02:38,160 SEC security laws, and it’s around staking and it’s around some of their assets.

758 01:02:38,160 –> 01:02:44,720 I think Coinbase is going to be heavily fined, and I think that they’re going to be required

759 01:02:44,720 –> 01:02:47,400 to delist a large number of assets.

760 01:02:47,400 –> 01:02:48,400 Time will tell.

761 01:02:48,400 –> 01:02:51,760 I, of course, will follow this with great interest.

762 01:02:51,760 –> 01:02:58,960 Again, as I’ve said in the past, the only crypto that I know of that is not a security

763 01:02:58,960 –> 01:03:00,120 is Bitcoin.

764 01:03:00,120 –> 01:03:01,120 Not even Ethereum.

765 01:03:01,120 –> 01:03:04,560 They used to say Ethereum was not a security.

766 01:03:04,560 –> 01:03:15,440 That is no longer held true to be true by the SEC, by the people at the SEC who speak

767 01:03:15,440 –> 01:03:20,880 about these things, and I think the switch from proof of work to proof of stake was the

768 01:03:20,880 –> 01:03:23,040 nail in the coffin for that.

769 01:03:23,040 –> 01:03:28,440 So they fit every other criteria of being a security.

770 01:03:28,440 –> 01:03:33,400 I’m actually not sure why they were never called a security before that, but that seemed

771 01:03:33,400 –> 01:03:36,880 to be what tipped them off.

772 01:03:36,880 –> 01:03:40,600 So that will be an interesting case to follow.

773 01:03:40,600 –> 01:03:42,280 It will take a while, maybe.

774 01:03:42,280 –> 01:03:47,800 It didn’t take Kraken long to have to pay $30 million or whatever.

775 01:03:47,800 –> 01:03:56,760 Okay, I posted on the 23rd just a little reminder, a dollar from two years ago is worth 87 cents

776 01:03:56,760 –> 01:03:58,640 in buying power today.

777 01:03:58,640 –> 01:04:05,000 If you saved $100,000 in cash from then till now, you lost $13,000 in purchasing power.

778 01:04:05,000 –> 01:04:10,440 If you had a billion dollars in cash, you lost $130 million.

779 01:04:10,440 –> 01:04:14,760 And I said banks are failing because of bonds, which is true.

780 01:04:14,760 –> 01:04:20,280 And second, shrink inflation has become so common that people just expect it.

781 01:04:20,280 –> 01:04:23,680 Governments are scrambling to find new forms of revenue.

782 01:04:23,680 –> 01:04:30,840 This is the world fiat and Keynesian economies or economics have created.

783 01:04:30,840 –> 01:04:32,000 And Bitcoin fixes this.

784 01:04:32,000 –> 01:04:36,680 I posted that on the 23rd just a few days ago.

785 01:04:36,680 –> 01:04:39,400 And you can verify all that if you would like.

786 01:04:39,400 –> 01:04:41,400 That’s fine.

787 01:04:41,400 –> 01:04:48,120 When you go to a restaurant and your price of your meal stays the same, but your plate

788 01:04:48,120 –> 01:04:51,560 size, your food, the amount of food that you get, gets smaller.

789 01:04:51,560 –> 01:04:53,080 That’s shrink inflation.

790 01:04:53,080 –> 01:04:59,080 And that is not calculated into like CPI data.

791 01:04:59,080 –> 01:05:06,000 So I believe inflation is actually higher than what’s quoted at like 7% or so right

792 01:05:06,000 –> 01:05:07,000 now.

793 01:05:07,000 –> 01:05:11,640 I think it’s actually significantly higher than that because these things are not taken

794 01:05:11,640 –> 01:05:12,640 into account.

795 01:05:12,640 –> 01:05:19,800 And another thing, they shifted the CPI data, for example, like a year or two ago, and they

796 01:05:19,800 –> 01:05:26,920 don’t take into account, well, maybe a family switches and this happens a lot.

797 01:05:26,920 –> 01:05:29,640 Maybe they don’t buy so much beef, which is more expensive.

798 01:05:29,640 –> 01:05:31,240 They start buying more chicken.

799 01:05:31,240 –> 01:05:33,860 Well, that’s not inflation, not in their book.

800 01:05:33,860 –> 01:05:41,200 The family is making choices to minimize their cost or really to keep their costs the same,

801 01:05:41,200 –> 01:05:43,000 but they’re buying different things.

802 01:05:43,000 –> 01:05:49,000 See that doesn’t strictly meet the definition of inflation, but it’s part of it.

803 01:05:49,000 –> 01:05:53,320 I’ll say this in passing just because it’s kind of important.

804 01:05:53,320 –> 01:06:02,840 The Terra Luna stablecoin, the Terra founder, Do Kwan, was arrested in Montenegro.

805 01:06:02,840 –> 01:06:03,840 Where is that?

806 01:06:03,840 –> 01:06:04,840 Italy?

807 01:06:04,840 –> 01:06:05,840 France?

808 01:06:05,840 –> 01:06:06,840 Right there on the border maybe.

809 01:06:06,840 –> 01:06:07,840 March 23rd.

810 01:06:07,840 –> 01:06:11,360 He’ll be going to jail for a while.

811 01:06:11,360 –> 01:06:16,600 Strike launched payments, lightning payments in Vietnam.

812 01:06:16,600 –> 01:06:26,600 German mining difficulty on March 23rd hit an all time high of 46.84 T. I’m not sure

813 01:06:26,600 –> 01:06:33,120 what the T is, but an all time high difficulty, meaning it’s more and more difficult to mine.

814 01:06:33,120 –> 01:06:37,480 And that only happens ultimately as the price goes up.

815 01:06:37,480 –> 01:06:41,080 Okay, I guess I wasn’t quite done.

816 01:06:41,080 –> 01:06:45,400 The U.S. banking turmoil can’t be contained, Moody’s warned.

817 01:06:45,400 –> 01:06:49,400 Moody’s is a very important company when it comes to banks.

818 01:06:49,400 –> 01:06:54,560 They grade banks like an A plus or a B or whatever.

819 01:06:54,560 –> 01:06:58,160 I believe I’ve mentioned them in passing at one point recently.

820 01:06:58,160 –> 01:07:02,920 Well, they’ve now come out and said that all this stuff that’s going on with the banks,

821 01:07:02,920 –> 01:07:03,920 you can’t contain it.

822 01:07:03,920 –> 01:07:05,240 It’s not done yet.

823 01:07:05,240 –> 01:07:12,360 SEC warns that companies offering crypto asset investments or services may not be complying

824 01:07:12,360 –> 01:07:15,520 with federal security law.

825 01:07:15,520 –> 01:07:18,520 March 23rd.

826 01:07:18,520 –> 01:07:22,720 I agree with, so I’m going to say something that may be controversial.

827 01:07:22,720 –> 01:07:25,040 I agree with what the SEC is doing.

828 01:07:25,040 –> 01:07:30,360 I believe, on the other hand, that they completely mishandled this up till this point.

829 01:07:30,360 –> 01:07:34,600 I read what the Howey law is, the Howey test, excuse me.

830 01:07:34,600 –> 01:07:36,720 I read what securities are.

831 01:07:36,720 –> 01:07:44,760 I look at the definitions of 99% of these crypto assets and I believe that they fit.

832 01:07:44,760 –> 01:07:51,120 There’s security and the problem is when there’s security, it gets much more difficult for

833 01:07:51,120 –> 01:07:53,880 people to buy and sell them.

834 01:07:53,880 –> 01:08:00,040 Plain and simple, Bitcoin is a commodity on the other hand.

835 01:08:00,040 –> 01:08:02,360 Maybe someday we do a podcast about that.

836 01:08:02,360 –> 01:08:06,040 If there’s enough interest, I really don’t want to go into it a whole lot.

837 01:08:06,040 –> 01:08:09,360 I’ve settled it in my mind.

838 01:08:09,360 –> 01:08:13,480 What I don’t like is that the SEC seems to be all of a sudden coming down on all these

839 01:08:13,480 –> 01:08:18,040 companies and everybody’s running around screaming, well, the SEC is bad.

840 01:08:18,040 –> 01:08:24,160 Well, the SEC is actually doing their job, but they should have been doing their job

841 01:08:24,160 –> 01:08:26,040 since day one.

842 01:08:26,040 –> 01:08:33,520 So crypto, basically everything that followed Bitcoin has been around for a long time.

843 01:08:33,520 –> 01:08:35,120 These are nothing new.

844 01:08:35,120 –> 01:08:38,480 So where have they been this entire time?

845 01:08:38,480 –> 01:08:42,240 Because we’ve seen very little action and now all of a sudden it seems like they’re

846 01:08:42,240 –> 01:08:45,040 turning the screws.

847 01:08:45,040 –> 01:08:48,080 So again, I don’t disagree with what they’re doing.

848 01:08:48,080 –> 01:08:56,640 I just, the timeframe is weird, if that makes sense.

849 01:08:56,640 –> 01:09:04,760 March 24th, which was Friday, that’s ominous.

850 01:09:04,760 –> 01:09:11,000 Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen calls top U.S. financial regulators to an unscheduled

851 01:09:11,000 –> 01:09:15,240 meeting that is closed to the public.

852 01:09:15,240 –> 01:09:20,560 Deutsche Bank, which is a German bank, not doing so well.

853 01:09:20,560 –> 01:09:24,960 Jim Cramer said they’re doing great, so they’re probably going to fail tomorrow.

854 01:09:24,960 –> 01:09:26,400 And that’s kind of it.

855 01:09:26,400 –> 01:09:27,880 Oh, brand new.

856 01:09:27,880 –> 01:09:30,880 An hour ago I posted this.

857 01:09:31,080 –> 01:09:40,120 Biden’s 2024 budget request calls for $4.7 trillion with a T, not billion, trillion dollars

858 01:09:40,120 –> 01:09:42,280 in tax increases.

859 01:09:42,280 –> 01:09:44,320 Increases.

860 01:09:44,320 –> 01:09:47,360 So clown world continues.

861 01:09:47,360 –> 01:09:49,960 This is why I have Bitcoin.

862 01:09:49,960 –> 01:09:52,800 I have Bitcoin for a number of things.

863 01:09:52,800 –> 01:09:55,040 I’ll try and summarize them very quickly.

864 01:09:55,040 –> 01:10:00,440 Maybe I should, you know what, I think just next week I’ll just do a podcast on that because

865 01:10:00,440 –> 01:10:07,560 you could take an entire podcast I’ve been yammering on for an hour and good Lord, 25

866 01:10:07,560 –> 01:10:08,560 minutes.

867 01:10:08,560 –> 01:10:09,560 I got to stop.

868 01:10:09,560 –> 01:10:12,720 You’re all going to shoot me.

869 01:10:12,720 –> 01:10:16,080 I’ll clip some of this out, so we’ll make it a little shorter, but I really try and

870 01:10:16,080 –> 01:10:17,880 keep it in an hour.

871 01:10:17,880 –> 01:10:21,840 Obviously I’ve not done so well.

872 01:10:21,840 –> 01:10:25,840 No bank failures, so to speak, this week, last week at this point.

873 01:10:25,840 –> 01:10:30,000 I should say that I do probably expect one or two more next week.

874 01:10:30,000 –> 01:10:31,000 We’ll see.

875 01:10:31,000 –> 01:10:36,040 I think there’s some, they’re trying to bail them out essentially before they actually

876 01:10:36,040 –> 01:10:37,320 happen at this point.

877 01:10:37,320 –> 01:10:40,920 So maybe that’s actually what’s really going on.

878 01:10:40,920 –> 01:10:43,920 All right.

879 01:10:43,920 –> 01:10:46,200 That’s it.

880 01:10:46,200 –> 01:10:49,040 Generation Bitcoin supports podcasting 2.0.

881 01:10:49,040 –> 01:10:52,560 It’s a value for value podcast with no sponsors, no advertising.

882 01:10:52,560 –> 01:10:56,380 You can support the podcast in three ways, time, talent, and treasure.

883 01:10:56,380 –> 01:11:00,600 If you want to support the podcast and has the time or talent, I could use some things

884 01:11:00,600 –> 01:11:02,240 such as help with transactions.

885 01:11:02,240 –> 01:11:04,260 By the way, I’ve got some good ideas about that.

886 01:11:04,260 –> 01:11:07,620 If somebody’s interested, I’m actually going to bring that in house.

887 01:11:07,620 –> 01:11:14,340 They’ve made a version of whisper that kind of a CPU driven, so I don’t have to stop.

888 01:11:14,340 –> 01:11:23,100 I can stop using the GPU setup that I’ve been using should be cheaper and easier to control.

889 01:11:23,180 –> 01:11:31,500 I’ve also been in the process of moving a bunch of websites from a centralized, like,

890 01:11:31,500 –> 01:11:37,580 I don’t know, one of these centralized WordPress sites to containers.

891 01:11:37,580 –> 01:11:39,540 And so they’re going to run on a VPS.

892 01:11:39,540 –> 01:11:42,280 It’ll actually make it a lot easier for me to manage.

893 01:11:42,280 –> 01:11:46,460 As part of that, I’m going to take the Generation Bitcoin website.

894 01:11:46,460 –> 01:11:52,180 I will initially transfer as a WordPress site simply to move it over, but then I will create

895 01:11:52,180 –> 01:11:56,540 a website in Ghost, I believe.

896 01:11:56,540 –> 01:11:59,380 Ghost.io, I think, is what it’s called.

897 01:11:59,380 –> 01:12:03,980 It’s kind of a more modern open source content management system.

898 01:12:03,980 –> 01:12:11,280 So we’ll reimagine that site in Ghost, and hopefully that will improve things a little

899 01:12:11,280 –> 01:12:13,380 bit.

900 01:12:13,380 –> 01:12:14,380 So there’s stuff.

901 01:12:14,380 –> 01:12:15,380 There’s stuff.

902 01:12:15,380 –> 01:12:17,500 If you want to do stuff, I got stuff.

903 01:12:17,500 –> 01:12:20,840 That would be a huge help.

904 01:12:20,840 –> 01:12:22,120 Here’s just what it sounds like.

905 01:12:22,120 –> 01:12:26,840 If you find the content valuable, you can support the podcast by streaming Sats.

906 01:12:26,840 –> 01:12:29,640 You can boost from a podcasting 2.0 app.

907 01:12:29,640 –> 01:12:34,800 Those apps are available at newpodcastapps.com or, I believe at this point, podcastapps.com.

908 01:12:34,800 –> 01:12:37,600 In fact, I’m sure it’s available.

909 01:12:37,600 –> 01:12:39,080 Either one of those.

910 01:12:39,080 –> 01:12:40,400 I use Fountain.

911 01:12:40,400 –> 01:12:44,080 I use, man, I draw this blank every week.

912 01:12:44,080 –> 01:12:47,240 It’s so embarrassing.

913 01:12:47,240 –> 01:12:48,240 Podverse.

914 01:12:48,840 –> 01:12:52,080 I always want to say pod something, and then I stumble.

915 01:12:52,080 –> 01:12:57,320 I’m like, those are the two that I drive all the time.

916 01:12:57,320 –> 01:13:04,320 Podverse has great live podcasting built in so that when the podcasting 2.0 guys fired

917 01:13:04,320 –> 01:13:11,120 up on a Friday afternoon and record that podcast, I get to listen to it live.

918 01:13:11,120 –> 01:13:12,120 So that’s really cool.

919 01:13:12,120 –> 01:13:15,840 With Fountain, you can actually earn Sats while you’re listening.

920 01:13:15,840 –> 01:13:23,200 You can, in both of them, you can boost your favorite podcaster you can stream.

921 01:13:23,200 –> 01:13:26,360 So you should check them out.

922 01:13:26,360 –> 01:13:29,720 Okay.

923 01:13:29,720 –> 01:13:33,340 If you like the content, I would love it if you tell your friends.

924 01:13:33,340 –> 01:13:36,880 You can do a review, spread the word, whatever.

925 01:13:36,880 –> 01:13:41,520 Put it up on, I don’t know, Stacker News, whatever.

926 01:13:41,520 –> 01:13:43,000 I have no idea.

927 01:13:43,000 –> 01:13:45,120 Just let people know about the podcast.

928 01:13:45,120 –> 01:13:48,400 It’s the best way for us to gain new listeners.

929 01:13:48,400 –> 01:13:49,400 Thanks for being here.

930 01:13:49,400 –> 01:13:51,320 I hope this has been helpful.

931 01:13:51,320 –> 01:13:54,160 I hope this is something you use in the long term.

932 01:13:54,160 –> 01:13:57,440 I would take the time if I were you to draw this out.

933 01:13:57,440 –> 01:14:02,480 If you don’t have chart software, I use TradingView, as I’ve said in the past.

934 01:14:02,480 –> 01:14:07,400 I’m now on the free version, so to speak, where I’m not paying for it every month.

935 01:14:07,400 –> 01:14:11,360 And that limits the amount of time you can go back.

936 01:14:11,360 –> 01:14:16,560 But you may have access to that or what you can draw it out on graph paper.

937 01:14:16,560 –> 01:14:20,040 I mean, literally just chart the month, month by month.

938 01:14:20,040 –> 01:14:25,060 It’s not that many points of data and pin it to your wall.

939 01:14:25,060 –> 01:14:26,160 Don’t lose sight of that.

940 01:14:26,160 –> 01:14:32,400 Don’t lose sight of that 18 month accumulation window that I’ve talked about and keep that

941 01:14:32,400 –> 01:14:33,400 in mind.

942 01:14:33,400 –> 01:14:35,040 I’ve already gone through where you can reach me.

943 01:14:35,040 –> 01:14:40,080 I’m not going to go through that again, but I will say this.

944 01:14:40,080 –> 01:14:41,400 Just stay humble, my friends.

945 01:14:41,400 –> 01:14:43,120 Go out and make it a great week.

946 01:14:43,120 –> 01:14:45,120 I’ll talk to you soon.